Owise House and Senate Projections, Sep 14 2006

Owise.com Prediction Website ^ | 9/14/2006 | Owise.com

[drangundsturm]

Senate Summary: The GOP will lose 3.7 seats, leaving them with an expected value of 51.3 seats. (51 seats are required for control.) The Democrats have an 8.6% chance to take control.
...
House Summary: The GOP will lose 12.2 seats, leaving them with an expected value of 218.8 seats. (218 are required for control.) The Democrats have a 36.4% chance to take control.

[drangundsturm]

Owise is currently saying it's going to be tight but GOP likely retains control of both houses. Owise has been very accurate in predicting things like Rove not getting indicted and other political things.

(Owise is a one year old prediction site that uses neural-net like algorithms to combine predictions by their members. Members with a better track record get a higher weight, based solely on merit... anyone can come and predict but until you have a long track record you cannot affect the Owise blended prediction, so it's relatively tamper-proof.)

The site has graphs showing changes in these predictions over time as well as detailed predictions on the interesting senate and house races.

[cpdiii]

(51 seats are required for control.)

Fifty seats are required for control. The Vice President is the President of the Senate. He will cast any tie breaking votes.

[drangundsturm]

well, 50 for repubs and 51 for democrats. Most commentators say 50 seats would give the gop "nominal" control. Also note that other prediction market sites like tradesports.com define control as 51 seats in their senate futures contracts, so perhaps owise is following that less nuanced definition...

[S.S. Monkeyface]

Owise is currently saying it's going to be tight but GOP likely retains control of both houses.

I agree with this , and I hope he's right.

Look for a couple of GOP upsets. And they'll really upset the media.

Fifty seats are required for control. The Vice President is the President of the Senate. He will cast any tie breaking votes.

Unfortunately, if it comes to that, I think Chafee will cross the aisle. He' threatened to do so before. Taht's why the Republicans must retain at least 51.

[Kuksool]

I don't know much about Owise. Who did Owise predict to win in 2004?

Still, if Owise is correct, then that's way too close for comfort. I would be happy with a single digit House loss and only a net loss of 2 Senate seats.

[Little Bill]

I think that the Pubbies will hold or pick up a few seats, in the House, the Senate no vibes.

[oyez]

. Democrats are going to be sure to turn up in big numbers because they have turned up the hate Bush machine. Many people who don't buy into it and would vote Republican, but for what ever reason won't vote, at all need encouraging. Remind everybody what we're up against. Many Democrats plenty of have time to vote and some will vote early and often. There is no excuse for not voting.

If the Democrats, get enough seats they will tie The President up with an impeachment trial, in ordet to render him ineffective for his last year and a half in office. Besides ther is this payback thing they want to do for their beloved Bill Clinton. A useless empeachment is sure to severely weaken us in defense and security, which is an acceptable risk for the Democrats as long as they can be on top for a few months.

[Prokopton]

"Fifty seats are required for control. The Vice President is the President of the Senate. He will cast any tie breaking votes."

Control? Control?! Are they kidding. The Republicans are not now and will not be in control of the Senate. With wuss middle of the roaders and strong outright liberals the Senate Republicans are controlled by the dominant party, the Democrats.

Look at the makeup of the 911 commission and the report they issued if you want to see who was, and still is, in control of the Senate.
Look at the open borders we have with Mexico with a total lack of security for our Country to see who is in control of the Senate.

It would be a joke if it wasn't so tragic for our Country.