Posted on 09/13/2006 9:11:40 AM PDT by gopwinsin04
September 13, 2006 How Chafee Won
Late last Thursday, Sen. Elizabeth Dole hurried up to Sen. Lincoln Chafee on the floor of the Senate and put her foot down. You might lose this race, she told him, if you don’t put your best ads back up.
Chafee, gun-shy about the negative ads he knew Dole was referring to, relented, as he’s done innumerable times in the year and a half since it became clear that he’d face a primary challenge.
The next night, Rhode Island television viewers were once again treated to the sounds of Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey joking that old people should die off. They heard the charges that he had doctored his resume. The tag line: “Steve Laffey: Untrustworthy, unpredictable, unreliable.” And the most important part of the ad was the FEC-mandated ending. Lincoln Chafee approved this message. A contrast was drawn.
By Tuesday, six months worth of hard-hitting spots like these, many funded directly by the NRSC, had driven unfavorable perceptions of Laffey to scary heights among non-affiliated voters.
But Laffey’s campaign professed not to worry. They weren’t concerned about unaffiliated voters. They assumed that few would be motivated to spend an hour at the polls waiting to vote for Lincoln Chafee. Laffey ran his campaign as if he were a presidential candidate preparing for a caucus. He tried to meet as many Republicans as possible. His campaign identified and kept in touch with about 30,000 stalwarts. Based on past turnout, that seemed like enough.
In every speech, Laffey touted his conservative credentials, his record as mayor, and, somewhat discordantly, his independence. After all, his audience was the small and restive Republican base in RI – conservative and independent. The ads he ran were all positive, but the Club for Growth spent hundreds of thousands of dollars running spots that blasted Chafee. The messages were was confusing. Some of Laffeys’ ads were populist in content; he recalled how his brother died of AIDS and his parents live on Social Security. Others stressed his commitment to lowering taxes, securing borders and protecting America. Laffey’s campaign and the Club could not coordinate their strategy, and they often dismissed each other’s decisions in private.
Laffey hoped to convince Republicans that he was better on their issues and could get things done. Chafee’s ads were designed to prevent Laffey from making a gut-level connection with voters.
Rhode Island will become a case study in the effectiveness of the Republicans’ 72 Hour Program. Behind the curtain, Chafee’s campaign spent $500,000 to squeeze out every conceivable voter from neighborhoods across the state. They searched for independents who voted Democrat in municipal elections but who had once upon a time voted for a Republican for president or governor or senator. There were a few of those. They looked for non-affiliated voters in Republican neighborhoods. Using microtargeting techniques, they even tried to figure out which committed Democrats might be tempted to vote for Chafee.
By the end of the summer, Chafee’s campaign had identified 42,000 potential supporters. Then the second part of the program kicked in. Message, here, is a verb. The campaign “messaged” these voters, often individually. Chafee himself called more than 100 of them who were identified as being capable of swinging the votes of colleagues and friends. The standard complement of robocalls, mailings and personal visits were employed. In the twelve days of September, Chafee, the RNC and NRSC made more than 198,000 phone calls to the voters on their list. Many voters received one every two days.
On election day, the Chafee campaign stationed poll watchers at 100 key precincts across the state. By 10:00 am, the RNC and the NRSC were confident that Chafee would win.
It didn’t faze them when Laffey’s campaign bragged about meeting their targets. Chafee had simply found more voters. Laffey’s turnout was sufficient for a universe of Republicans and identified conservatives. But Chafee had found just about every Republican he could hope for and managed to attract at least 10,000 non-Republicans to his tally. One Republican in the state estimates that as many as 60 percent of the primary electorate were not affiliated with the Republican Party. (More than 20,000 Rhose Islanders requested formal disaffiliation forms after voting.) Chafee even managed to blunt Laffey's margin of victory in Cranston to just a few hundred votes.
The same factors that drove Chafee’s victory are giving his Democratic challenger, Sheldon Whitehouse, some comfort. The universe of identified Chafee voters is at least 20,000 less than the number of Democrats who voted for Whitehouse in yesterday’s noncompetitive primary. [MARC AMBINDER]
I don't believe any of you who are complaining understands the simple fact that if Laffey had won the seat would have been lost to the Democrats. I dislike Chafee as much as anyone but if it means the loss of control in the Senate to vote for a more conservative candidate then I'll opt for keeping control until the demographics of the State change.
His has been a Chafee seat for 30 years. I guess it's part of the trust fund.
You vote for Arnold.
I was informed last night, that Independents can and did vote in the GOP primary.
The lesson is Santorum and Bush helped Specter win in tyhe primary in 2004. Specter then turned around and bashed them both. In 2004, there were "Kerry & Specter" signs all over the state. Now Specter is all but openly campaigning against Santorum. he's on the board of organizations actively campaigning against Santorum.
You'd better re-read your political history. Conservatives have yet to succeed in rolling back any part of the welfare state (other than welfare reform).
Let me just give you one current issue: Iraq
If you want to live with the fallout of another retreat in disgrace and ingominy a la Vietnam then by all means stay home or vote 'Rat.
You want our soldiers and government officials indited and prosecuted by the ICC ? You want our foreign policy dictated by the Kyoto Protocol and the UN ? You want socialized medicine, gay marriage, and homosexual education pushed in schools a la Caliufornia ?
Sure, then, by all means vote 'Rat or stay home - same thing.
The Decline and Fall of the Athenian Republic (1776) By Alexander Fraser Tytler, Scottish professor of history at Edinburgh.
If Laffey beat Chaffee, is it probable that Laffey would beat the Dem. in R.I.?
Oh please! The NRSC protects incumbents, as it should.
I didn't care who won, either way, we wound up with someone who makes Specter look like Helms (either Chafee or Whitehouse, lets face it, Laffey would be lucky to get 40%), but it's stupid to blame Dole. Coleman or whomever else would have done the same thing.
Virtually impossible. R.I. went 60% for Kerry, and almost 66% for Gore. The only reason Chafee is around is because of his father, who was a R.I. institution.
Laffey was behind something like 55-25 against the D in most polls.
That said, Chafee really isn't more conservative then the D. A lot of people say that, and they are virtually always wrong. There might not be a BIG ENOUGH difference to suit their taste, but there is usually a large difference in how they vote, even between someone like Snowe and whomever runs against her. But in this case, it's literally true. Chafee isn't with the majority of the caucus on ANY major issue, and he's threatened to leave the party in the past.
The only thing he's done right is not to fillibuster judicial nominees. He still votes against them, but he doesn't vote for a fillibuster.
Tell you what, onyx: you vote for who you want in the Mississippi Statehouse. I'll do the same here in California.
Then you're an idiot, and don't give a damn about your Country. If you can't have it your way, you won't have anything. Just stay home on election day. Please.
I think I'll vote for Arnold.
I would be curious about more info about Specter campaigning or working against Santorum. If true that is troublesome. That being said just because he is on certain boards in my view doesnt make him really campaigning againist Santorum. I think it comes down to some specifics and I would be interested in that. For instance if Specter sits on the board of lets say "planned Parenthood" I dont think that could be classifyed as campaigning aginst Santorum. Just like if Santorum sits on lets say on the board of "right to life" that means he is campaigning against Specter or Snowe.
To be honest I am pretty impressed that Spectre despite his leanings has been pretty fair as to his pledge to be fair on the Judicary committe. I was impressed with his performance during the SC nominations for instance. You might be right that he is campaigning against Santorum secrtetly but it is the first I have heard of it. It would seem that he above all people has a big vested interest in keeping the Senate Republican
No. More like impossible.
With a GOP majority in the Senate (as in the House), the Republicans can set the agenga. Holding your nose and voting for the RINO in the general election is a smart idea. Losing on principle is an act of insanity.
Where did the rest of Chaffees votes come from?
You tell me.
Well said. Time to move on and unite behind the party. I have a severe dislike for Tancredo and have needless to say huge misgivings about Graf in Arizona. But good gosh I am praying and hoping that both of them win in the general for the sake of the whole party and the Country.
Mississippi can't afford him.
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