[DBrow]

A working nuke in the hands of a terrorist would be a fantastically hot commodity.

Any other terrorist who learned of the thing would start an operation to get it for themselves, to use on their own target, plus every intel agency on Earth would be looking for it.

Restoring and maintaining a nuke requires access to certain things- not available at Radio Shack- that would make opsec a nightmare.

What I'm leaning towards here is a use-it-or-lose-it imperative that would preclude hanging onto a nuke for as long as there have been rumors of them, which is at least ten years.

The most likely scenario is for a nation-state to produce a working nuke suitable for clandestine use, pass it off to an operating terror cell, and that cell would use it within the week before the horde of seekers could sniff it out.

I find it highly unlikely that a terror org could keep even one nuke on the shelf for more than a few days.

[standingfirm]

Let's hope you are right....but once Iran produces or buys a nuke all bets are off. I think Al-Qaida and Iran are busy forming an alliance. They have been housing bin Laden's son and have recently sent him to go to Lebanon by way of Syria.

[Hound of the Baskervilles]

"The most likely scenario is for a nation-state to produce a working nuke suitable for clandestine use, pass it off to an operating terror cell, and that cell would use it within the week before the horde of seekers could sniff it out."

Exactly. Not to labor the point but if such a nuke were used, the group that did it would NOT claim responsibility. They would just sit back and watch the chaos and we would have no one to retaliate against. Then Osama could claim that we deserved it because of Hiroshima while not claiming or disclaiming any responsibility . Or it could be blamed on the Jews. Anyway you look at it we are screwed if they get nukes.