Situation Called Dire in West Iraq: Anbar Is Lost Politically, Marine Analyst Says

The Washington Post ^ | September 11, 2006 | Thomas E. Ricks

[taylorstreet]

The chief of intelligence for the Marine Corps in Iraq recently filed an unusual secret report concluding that the prospects for securing that country's western Anbar province are dim and that there is almost nothing the U.S. military can do to improve the political and social situation there, said several military officers and intelligence officials familiar with its contents.

The officials described Col. Pete Devlin's classified assessment of the dire state of Anbar as the first time that a senior U.S. military officer has filed so negative a report from Iraq.

One Army officer summarized it as arguing that in Anbar province, "We haven't been defeated militarily but we have been defeated politically -- and that's where wars are won and lost."

The "very pessimistic" statement, as one Marine officer called it, was dated Aug. 16 and sent to Washington shortly after that, and has been discussed across the Pentagon and elsewhere in national security circles. "I don't know if it is a shock wave, but it's made people uncomfortable," said a Defense Department official who has read the report. Like others interviewed about the report, he spoke on the condition that he not be identified by name because of the document's sensitivity.

Devlin reports that there are no functioning Iraqi government institutions in Anbar, leaving a vacuum that has been filled by the insurgent group al-Qaeda in Iraq, which has become the province's most significant political force, said the Army officer, who has read the report. Another person familiar with the report said it describes Anbar as beyond repair; a third said it concludes that the United States has lost in Anbar...

[johnny7]

Anbar Province suffered a huge drop in Marine troop presence when the offensive to cleanup Baghdad began. It was predicted that the western province would suffer for it months ago.

[r9etb]

It's a coincidence, I'm sure, that Anbar Province borders Syria.

[Axhandle]

I agree. The Kurds have demonstrated the ability to resist the Ba'athists and to prevent incursions of Islamists.

I think that we are delusional if we are hesitant to grant autonomy to the Shi'ite south and Kurdish north out of fear that Iranians will influence the south. The Iranians are already the biggest influence in Iraq. What is there to lose?

[muawiyah]

Whether or not Anbar province is "part" of Iraq or off on its own, without oil money it's just a patch of desert filled with hopelessly impoverished people ~ a new outdoor slum in fact.

There's nothing of worth there.

What a tremendous political victory for the "insurgency" (/sarcasm)

[crazyhorse691]

he spoke on the condition that he not be identified by name

---

I am getting so tired of this type of stuff. If I feel obligated to protect a source, I also feel that the info given by that source is unusable(it becomes gossip). In short, no namee, no quotee.

[houeto]

...said several military officers and intelligence officials familiar with its contents.

Who?

No, WHO? Specifically?!?

What did you say?

You're not allowed to say who?!?

Fine! Then STFU!!!

[vbmoneyspender]

As far as Fallujah is concerned, I don't know what you are taklking about. Our troops destroyed Fallujah, which is a big reason why we started getting cooperation from some of the tribes in Anbar. The cooperating tribes basically decided that they didn't want to happen to their cities what had happened to Fallujah.

[Brilliant]

I'm not sure what he means when he says "defeated politically."

[Brilliant]

I don't think there were ever any functioning political institutions in that region.

[FreedomPoster]

We should have levelled Fallujah, the first time, as a lesson. We'd have less of this sort of thing, and likely less overall loss of life (ours and Iraqi's).

[Obie Wan]

Yeah,we're going to turn Iraq into a democratic,free society.Guess we're going to have to be there for a while longer to get the job done huh ???

[pierrem15]

our interview with the D Ring janitor showed....

/sarcasm

[Grendel9]

"If it is a secret report, what is the Washington Compost doing with it?"



Pleeease! Don't get too logical here!

[Axhandle]

"I often wonder how much control Saddam had over some of these provinces."

Only enough so that there was no credible threat to his power. The cities that are presenting us with the greatest troubles now (except for Baghdad) have always been problem children. Samarra, for example, was always a piece of crap and Hussein purposely had the highway curve around the city rather than go through it because it was such an uncontrollable piece of crap. Throughout the country there were often tribal wars that the government didn't intervene in because the tribes were so heavily armed, in some cases actually firing artillery at one another (no, I don't mean mortars). Fallujah, likewise, was a giant piece of crap. I forget what it means, but I believe that the arabic translation of Fallujah is something to the effect of "resistance" or "rebellion" something like that, reflecting its history of restlessness.

[pierrem15]

We cannot allow Anbar to become a safe haven for al-Queda, and I do not believe the Shia or the Kurds will continue to tolerate attacks emanating from Sunni Arabs in Iraq.

I also think, in retrospect, that this is one report being hyped by the Compost: most of Anbar (apart from Ramadi) is fairly quiet, though I suspect that is the case because we are sitting on them. And I don't see much alternative to simply waiting until we have enough trained and logistics-enabled Iraqi Army units available to turn it over to them.

[RexBeach]

Hell, you mean now we have to pay for the same real estate - again?

[caver]

The same thing can be said about some larger US cities. The murder rate in Indianaplois this year is about to break the yearly record with almost 4 months left in the year. Dealing with the problem will take some not so PC actions.

[Tennessean4Bush]

As far as Fallujah is concerned

What is the status of Fallujah today?

[af_vet_rr]

Let's hope that this report is overly pessimistic.

We should put it in context. People are too focused on what we've done there, or what we haven't done. Instead, they need to look at the history of the region, the religion, and what's going to happen 5, 10, 15 years from now, long after the US has pulled out. One side or the other will dominate it, or there will be civil war. That's what's been going on for centuries now.

What we have to focus on instead, is fighting them there, rather than here.

[norton]

"It's a coincidence, I'm sure, that Anbar Province borders Syria."

Sure....just like the coincidence of publishing an unsourced criticism of the WOT on September 11th.