The alternative would only have to be cheaper than oil right now, with the potential to be made more cheaply in the future. Then oil would have someone to compete with, and that benefits everyone. My $30 figure was a rough guess at what the final equilibrium price might be if oil actually had to compete with an alternative.
So I guess your fortune teller graphic is in order. :)
My $30 figure was a rough guess at what the final equilibrium price might be if oil actually had to compete with an alternative. Nothing personal, but I don't think you have thought your scenario through.
Right now, there simply is nothing to compete with oil as an energy source. And a rise in the price of oil would only bring more oil recovery technology.
The break-though you dream of would have to be something completely new. And the higher price of energy would not bring it at a lower price than currently available, so no price benefit would accrue.