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Sherwood and Drake are the two big surprises to me. I know Sherwood has that mistress scandal thing, but I didn't think it would hit him quite this hard. Guess it did. And while I know it's been close all along, I feel like there's something I'm missing with the Drake race, unless the Dem challenger is just of exceptional quality.

I don't understand the Drake race at all. Bush carried the district by 16% in 2004, and it is in the navy zone, far from DC. But she has been on the endangered list for about 2 months now, although not this endangered. There must be something going on as to the candidates.

Some other polls in last day or two conflict with these results. The Dems released a poll showing Sherwood up 46 to 42 over Carney - I have a hard time believeing their own poll was biased in favor of the GOPer by an 11 point spread. The Dems also released a poll showing Simmons down 41 to 40 against Coutney, also have trouble believing that poll was biased against their candidate. Finally, the GOP released a poll showing our guy up 11 in the NY open.

Rothenburg's recent column casts doubt on Reichert being behind in polling - I don't believe that result until it is confirmed elsewhere. Rothenburg also said the Dems were not making much progress picking up seats in NY in general. I assume Drake is listed as a tossup for a reason, but I don't imagine other polling has her down 9, if it has her down at all.