Iran: Why the Secrecy?

European Union foreign ministers met in Finland, at Lappeenranta, on Saturday to back High Representative Javier Solana's continued discussions with Iran. 'Solana said he would not need extensive sessions with Iran to clarify the remaining questions, but did not provide any timetable nor was one set by the EU Foreign Ministers.'

Britain, France and Germany each received a secret letter in response to the demand that Iran cease producing nuclear fuel. 'Some of the other EU states are growing impatient with the secretive handling of the Iran issue by foreign policy chief Javier Solana and the EU's "big three" ... 22 out of the 25 ministers were not allowed to see a "top secret" 21-page report which Tehran produced last week explaining its position - a document only seen by Mr Solana and the so-called EU-3.'

United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan has just been to Tehran, with its Holocaust cartoon exhibition and proposed Holocaust denial conference. Regarding the uranium enrichment programme, he told Iran they now have two more weeks tacked on to the deadline.

Like Russia and China during the Cold War, Iran is being allowed to develop its nuclear capacity because war is not an option. No country is ready to challenge Iran effectively.

Take a look at the published letters from President Mahmoud Ahmadinijad: the letters to President George Bush and to Chancellor Angela Merkel. At best, these are embarrassing, even humorous. But actually they're rather worrying. Their combination of sycophantic flattery, tendentious argument and idiosyncratic construction shows the work of a cunning yet unbalanced mind, an autodictat lost in a fantasy world of unconstrained ambition and hatred.

Ahmadinijad is consciously creating a volatile situation from which to gain maximum advantage for Iran. He's painting himself into a corner, making war inevitable, while the world's leaders are trying their best not to ignore it.

Solana has a theory about the 'logic of war' which he discussed when he visited Israel at the start of the recent Lebanese conflict. He's against it.

Yet the credible threat of war is the stick that must accompany the carrot of peace if diplomacy is to work. The way Solana and Kofi Annan openly recoil from the use of force makes it impossible to present Iran with a robust response to their defiance on nuclear enrichment. Ahmadinijad knows he can continue with impunity.

The European Union and the United Nations are natural havens for appeasers. Anything but war. Today's European ethos is to maintain peace through employment and economic opportunity. The Iranians understand this.

With their secret letters, they have explained to each of their potential opponents individually and separately why they should let Iran follow its chosen course, in each case adjusting the argument to the recipient's situation. Each letter must surely contain the same sort of gibberish we've already seen in those sent earlier.

This makes it impossible to publish their contents. If the public were to realise what Ahmadinijad was writing to their leaders, war would be only a matter of time. So the world's leaders are left humouring Ahmadinijad, hoping he doesn't actually mean what he says but not confident enough in their faith to actually tell us what he's saying.

On the surface, it seems that Russia and China's UNSC veto is a show stopper, making any sanctions impossible. When you look at cause and effect reality, however, you realize that threats to veto are merely a negotiating stance.

Clearly, Russia and China have economic interests with the current Iranian regime, this is the basis of their threatened veto.

However, in reality, they face an either/or choice. Either they go along with sanctions, and lose some of the economic back and forth with the Mullahs, or else they veto sanctions, the US institutes unilateral regime change in Iran, and Russia and China lose ALL of their economic interests with the current regime. This is the same reason France signed on to Resolution 1441 re Iraq, against all expectations.

The deadline for cessation of Iran's uranium enrichment came and went, Russia and China threatened to veto, and here we have the US Ambassador to the UN, laying the military card back on the table in open view. No coincidence.

Just as with Iraq, the UN palaver will follow its course, and will either end the Iranian quest for nuclear weapons, or else it will give way to a unilateral military solution which will end the Iranian quest for nuclear weapons.

Iran's only option in all this is to hasten the demise of their current regime by offensive action, or sit back and wait for us to establish causus belli by exhausting UN options.

After the November elections, you will see the US position harden, "stop or else". If you watch closely and are lucky, you will note signs of increasing readiness.

After the turn of the year, you will see call-ups to match warm bodies with pre-positioned equipment, and the US will institute the endgame.

For now, all of the obvious maneuver will take place in the UN.

Special Dispatch-Iran September 1, 2006 No. 1275

Iranian Nuclear Chief Mohammad Sa'idi Explains Why Iran Produces Heavy Water: Drinking It Helps Fight Cancer and AIDS

"Patients... Consume [Heavy Water] Daily to Heal Their Diseases"

Interviewer: "You just said that in some cases, heavy water can even be used for drinking."

Mohammad Sa'idi: "Yes."

Interviewer: "Could you elaborate on this?"

Mohammad Sa'idi: "One of the products of heavy water is depleted deuterium. As you know, in an environment with depleted deuterium, the reception of cancer cells and of the AIDS viruses is disrupted. Since this reception is disrupted, the cells are gradually expelled from the body. Obviously, one glass of depleted deuterium will not expel or cure the cancer or eliminate the AIDS. We are talking about a certain period of time. In many countries that deal with these diseases, patients use this kind of water instead of regular water, and consume it daily in order to heal their diseases.

"In other words, the issue of heavy water has to do with matters of life and death, in many cases. One of the reasons that led us to produce heavy water was to use it for agricultural... medical purposes, and especially for industrial purposes in our country."

[...]

"When You Commit to Using Nuclear Technology for Peaceful Purposes Only, This Includes All the Nuclear Issues"

Mohammad Sa'idi: "There is no connection whatsoever between heavy water and plutonium. As I have said, the nuclear industry can be used for diverse purposes."

Interviewer: "Right."

Mohammad Sa'idi: "Some countries possess this kind of weapon, and use this technology to make weapons. There are also countries which are NPT members, and which accepted the NPT [regulations], and they have therefore committed themselves to use this technology for peaceful purposes only. When you commit to using nuclear technology for peaceful purposes only, this includes all the nuclear issues. Let's say tomorrow you build a heavy-water research reactor, OK? This research reactor uses fuel that has the plutonium element as well. We have declared to the world that Iran's nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, and the IAEA can supervise it fully. Now, when we are in the process of building this reactor – the concrete has just been poured and the walls are being installed – the IAEA is present, so of course it will be present when the reactor becomes operational. When it becomes operational the inspectors will definitely be there. Just like they supervise our facilities at Natanz, they will supervise these facilities, so that there will be no deviation in a certain direction."

[...]

"The Heavy-Water Research Reactors Have Slightly Simpler Technology [Than Light-Water Reactors]"

Mohammad Sa'idi: "You may ask why we pursued a heavy-water research reactor, rather than a light-water reactor. This is a [legitimate] question, which deserves an answer. [It is] because this involves simpler technology. The heavy-water research reactors have slightly simpler technology. In what way are they simpler? Light-water research reactors require fuel that is 20% enriched. Do you follow, Mr. Emami?"

Interviewer: "Yes."

Mohammad Sa'idi: "It requires 20% enriched fuel. Heavy-water research reactors do not require enriched fuel. What you need is not 3.5% [enriched uranium], but UO2, which is produced in the [UCF] facilities at Esfahan. These products are produced at Esfahan, and heavy water is currently produced at Khondab in Arak, so this technology is readily available to us. All we need to do is build the reactor. The fuel is available, and so is the moderator and the cooler, so the reactor can become productive very quickly. Let's say you build a light-water research reactor, OK? As soon as you want to move from 5% to 20% – in other words, to produce enriched fuel – the same countries that are shouting that there is plutonium in heavy-water reactors will shout and say that Iran has moved from 5% to 20% enrichment."

[...]

Interviewer: "With regard to Natanz, the 164 centrifuges continue to operate. When will we reach the 3,000 we announced?"

Mohammad Sa'idi: "We are now carrying out work at the R&D stage. A plan has been drawn up, and we are following it."

Interviewer: "When do you think we will reach 3,000 [centrifuges]?"

Mohammad Sa'idi: "According to the plan."

"We are Planning a Light-Water Power Reactor With a Capacity of 360 Megawatt"

Interviewer: "Thank you. I had other questions... We have done all these activities, so why aren't we building a [nuclear] power plant?"

Mohammad Sa'idi: "Of course we are. One of the important issues that may arise in the future for our dear people is that in order to complete this technological process in the Islamic Republic of Iran, we have begun designing a power reactor for the production of electricity. When I say 'power,' I mean production of electricity. This is a power reactor with a capacity of 360 megawatt. We are working towards an Iranian-made reactor. Adjacent to the heavy-water reactor that we are building, and which is also Iranian-made, we are planning a light-water power reactor with a capacity of 360 megawatt, which will serve as a basis for construction of [other] power reactors in the future."

http://www.memri.org/bin/opener_latest.cgi?ID=SD127506

comment: This shows that they are crazy, how can a deputy of the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization be so ignorant about the medical effect of heavy water?

The hydrogen bond with deuterium is slightly stronger than for ordinary hydrogen, and this will cause disruption of many cell functions, but only if the fraction of heavy water is very high. That it should be specific for HIV is rubbish.

The remaining part indicates that they are planning to produce weapon grade plutonium.

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