The GOP will pick up seats, here's why Part 1

various | Sept. 4, 2006 | self

[DManA]

Good thoughtful effort but may I make a suggestion without a whiff of sarcasm intended? If the Republicans lose (I said IF), do another post exploring point by point where you went wrong. If you do please ping me. I think it would be fascinating.

[reasonisfaith]

"Democrats have come to rely on liars who give them phony poll information"

You are correct. The Democrats are the party of fraud, and they will lose seats this November.

[Calusa]

You don't mean the 'non-partisan' Cook Political Report.(sarc/off)

Copied right off his web page:

The Cook Political Report is a non-partisan, online analysis of electoral politics.

Do these cats really believe their own B.S., or are their DUmmie constituents just that stupid.

[Dave S]

You have to also consider the fact that the GOP is doing their best to shoot themselves in the foot. F'rinstance Bush just won't shut up about his "comprehensive immigration reform." It is almost as if the RATs are writing the script for the stupid party.

Yes the GOP is shooting itself in the foot but its not Bush pulling the trigger. Did you ever stop and think which house seats are vulnerable? They are seats held by "moderates" in places like CT where you are lucky to have someone with an R next to their name as an incumbent. The holier than thou crowd who rail the most against illegal immigration, and take the hard line conservative approach to everything are those that are going to get reelected with 65% of the vote unless they get caught stealing from the voters or screwing someone elses wife. Those in the 50-50 type districts got elected because they were able to get enough of the Dems (e.g., anti-abortion Catholics) and Independents to support them by taking more nuanced stances on issues. Its amazing how couragous some of these folks can be when 80% of the voters in their districts would elect a dog or cat to congress if an R followed their name on the ballot.

[Prov3456]

self-ping

[John999]

I cannot see the Senate going to the Democrats, it is the House where the fight will be, and it will be the independents, and voter turnout that determine the outcome

[bilhosty]

"A Republican majority stays in place when they have something to offer a majority of the voting public in November."

very, very, very true. the GOP has been in for too long. they no longer stand for anything and they have no program. They are presenting no comprehensive program for to benefit the country. They are ignoring developing alternative energy and they arenot doing anything about health Insurance. They are spending money like drunken sailors and are avoiding there own strongest issue by allowing illegal immigrants to flood the country and destroy it.If it were not fr the alternative I would vote them out myself. While the idea that Republican's are bad and Democrats are worse does in fact rally me I think it is a loosing battle cry for sure.

[ClaireSolt]

Has anyone estimated the impact of unliksted cell phones on polls? Till now the on-air networks have had exclusive access to those who don't pay for cable. Will Rush Limbaugh on CBS News change that monopoly?

[CBart95]

As exhaustive and exemplary as your "list" is, two key factors are that the Dems:

1.) Literally have no agenda
and
2.) Only preach hatred of our way of life.

Besides,they are also lousy at high fiving and don't attend their end-zone dancing practice sessions.

[CBart95]

ADD:

Oh! Nooooo! You got a Number 2 coming!

Saints Preserve Us!

[jmaroneps37]

This post is now three hours old. There have been over 1300 views and 25 responses. Most have been in agreement but some who insist on thinking we will lose have accused me of being on drugs or drunk. Notice NONE have offered any genuine rebuttal. It's "I think or I feel".

The the nay sayers I say bring it on. Don't make empty comments based on what you think. My 4 year old granddaughter
"thinks" too but she doesn't KNOW about how elections are won.

To the poster who attacked me because I added Texas as a place where Democrat voter fraud is being countered: Think carefully. My point was NOT that anti voter fraud methods will help in Texas although every little bit does help. To the contrary my point in mentioning Texas is that it shows the GOP is no longer just "taking it" on voter. We are fighting back and winning and when we win in one place we use the same method of attack elsewhere.


To the poster that mentioned the ballot initiative in Mo. on stem cells hurting Talent: consider this, besides that initiative Mo. also has an eminent domain initiative which bring out conservatives. Moreover with recent new information on stem cells the water is now muddy on the issue. The rat needed a clear cut choice. Now there is none on that issue.

[deport]

To the poster who attacked me because I added Texas as a place where Democrat voter fraud is being countered:

---

Thanks for the ping....

[FlipWilson]

It is definitely hard to sort out fact from fiction. The GOP seems to be in trouble, but how do we really know? Every election the same MSM mantra dominates, namely, the GOP is going to lose.

This election cycle is different only in the intensity of the mantra. Hell, Matthews et. al. aren't even really covering the election, they are more running stories on what will happen after the dems take control. I watched Santorum debate Casey on Russert. It turned into a debate between Santorum and Russert because Casey was essentially a deer in the headlights and Russert had to take over.

My sense is that the GOP is in trouble. Still, for the reasons posted in this excellent essary, I don't think that it is in quite as much trouble as the MSM would like to sell us on. This campaign is just starting.

[FlipWilson]

Quote: "The the nay sayers I say bring it on. Don't make empty comments based on what you think. My 4 year old granddaughter"thinks" too but she doesn't KNOW about how elections are won."

Fair enough. The American People's patience with Iraq is up. The polls, all the polls, show that the American People are not satisfied with the War. Granted, some of those respondents are surrender monkeys, but I would bet that many of them believe that we should be doing more to win. For better or worse, the dems have disconnected the Iraqi theatre from the War on Terror and labeled it a "distraction."

So, you want concrete reasons for why I think the Republicans are in trouble. Well, if I could give you concrete anything when it comes to elections, then I would be in a different profession. But, I can say with some certainty that if the Voters decide that anything is better than the Republicans running the War in Iraq and ignore the fact that the dems have no plan, the Republicans are in trouble. It seems to be heading in that direction.

Finally, listening to Barone last week on Hannity scared me stiff. His assessment was frankly frightening. He felt that if the Republicans held onto the House at all, it would be by the skin of their teeth.

[jazusamo]

Bump for later read.

[Recovering_Democrat]

I hope hope hope you're right.

[AFPhys]

Beautiful list of things to think about!

[LS]

The cell phone thing supposedly has been factored in. I find that hard to believe. As for CBS, I don't think the Lord Jesus Christ could offer commentary on that show that would change its ratings.

[GregH]

The media has been in delusion where it believes what it writes will come true on election day, never mind the facts. The Dems have a problem with voter turnout and appeal, Republicans are battling it tough but would not be too concern by the rantings of the media on the elections and polls.

[Welike ike]

Flip I asked you last week to give me that link on Barone. He says the winds are changing for the GOP on his blog. The GOP has held the House on the SKIN OF ITS TEETH in 1996(Unions go after GOP Freshman), 1998, 2000 (only 221 Seats Flip) 2002, and 2004. The GOP has never had a big majority anyways. Besides Barone, Novak, Cook and Sabato all predicted Busby would win the CAL 50th at some point, after the Cunningham scandal in a district that gave Kerry 47%. If the DEMS blew that, how ill they do in Nov?