Posted on 09/03/2006 1:44:19 PM PDT by nwctwx
I think it's very uncertain. The strongest case can be made for the storm curving up over the Atlantic harmlessly. But that's only if it gets caught up in that trough.
And you can make a case that the developing ridging will steer it more toward Puerto Rico, in which case it will clearly be a threat to the US, probably Florida, but possibly anywhere along the east coast.
There's still not much suggestion that it could get into the Gulf. We definitely do not want one there.
1992 was an el Nino year, but it peaked in January. And the activity came late that year. First Andew in late August, and then five more storms after that. And from the storm tracks, it looks like there was not a pronounced SW to NE steering pattern like there was in 1997.
Indeed I think you have it covered with that description!
-t
Pretty cool....they have updated the storms!
They don't call me Dog Gone Waffle for no reason. ;-)
They often are. Hurricane Linda hit 180 mph during the el Nino 1997 season because of the big pile of warm water in the east Pac.
One other thing that I noticed over the years is that when the eastern pacific is active, the Atlantic falters a bit.
And you raise a good issue for the global warming weenies. As they point to the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season as proof of global warming, the Western Pacific had very few storms. It is my general understanding that the global count of tropical cyclones stays fairly constant from year to year. It just varies where they are due to global weather patterns.
They do that as the storm moves.
It is fun but it won't give us a clue as to where this thing will end up.
I disagree. If the historical patterns show that this storm from this position will probably not enter the Gulf, I would give that a lot of weight in trying to figure out the general trends of where it would got. This far out, you have to look at trends to give you an idea of what might happen.
Is this Florence you're pinging about?
If my name was Bastardi, I'd change it.
OTOH, an el Nino means a very wet winter season in Florida. 1997 was the year that registered the wettest December on record in Lakeland and probably in many other parts of the state - Over 12 inches of rain fell, and caused lots of flooding. We had a weaker el Nino in 2004, after Charley, Frances, Jeanne and Ivan visited. Again, we got in excess of 12 inches of rain in the month of December (FYI, a "normal" December sees 2-3 inches).
yuppers.
Assuming it ever gets enough media hot air to actually get named.
That would be a hoot ... 8<)
The MSM getting too hyper about a TD that can't even get a name......)
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 04, 2006
there was considerable difficulty in trying to determine a center
position this evening. Buoy 41041 located in the southern portion
of the elongated cyclonic circulation indicated a weak circulation
had passed over or near that buoy around 00z. The low-level
circulation center that we have been tracking the past day or so
has become less obvious in Quikscat and conventional satellite
imagery. Therefore...the advisory position is a blend of
conventional fix positions and a 04/2130z Quikscat overpass. This
position is north of the center of the cyclonic envelope noted in
nighttime visible imagery and Quikscat data...and leans closer to
the deep convective burst that has developed to the north.
The initial motion estimate is 300/11. Until the center consolidates
and becomes better defined within the convective pattern...there
may be some reformation of the circulation center as it migrates
toward any convective bursts. However...the overall motion of the
larger cyclonic envelope should be west-northwestward throughout
the forecast period as the system moves along the southern
periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge located to the north.
By day 5...the cyclone is expected to turn a little more
northwestward toward a weakness in the ridge that is forecast to
develop between 65w-75w longitude. However...the weak low-latitude
shortwave trough that is expected to create the break in the ridge
east of Florida is forecast by the global models to phase up with a
much stronger mid-latitude trough that is expected to swing rapidly
eastward toward the U.S. East Coast. It should be pointed out that
oftentimes stronger mid-latitude shortwaves will bypass and not
link up with weaker troughs situated over lower latitudes. As a
result...the official forecast track indicates only a slight
poleward Bend by day 5...which is similar to the model consensus.
Water vapor imagery indicates the depression has been fighting off
some dry air that has been punching into the center of the
circulation the past 12 hours or so...along with some light to
moderate southwesterly vertical shear. These conditions are
expected to persist for the next 72 hours...so only gradual
strengthening is forecast. However...after 72hours...the SHIPS
model is forecasting the shear to decrease to less than 10 kt...
and by 96-120 hours be near zero. That is when more significant
intensification could occur and this is reflected in the official
forecast. The SHIPS model brings the cyclone to 87 kt by 120 hours
...Whereas the GFDL still makes the system a major hurricane at that
time. Due to the uncertainty is the exact evolution of the
upper-level flow pattern as indicated by the different solutions in
the various global models...the official intensity forecast will
remain on the conservative side and below the available guidance.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 05/0300z 17.3n 44.8w 30 kt
12hr VT 05/1200z 17.9n 45.9w 35 kt
24hr VT 06/0000z 18.6n 47.7w 40 kt
36hr VT 06/1200z 19.2n 49.5w 45 kt
48hr VT 07/0000z 19.8n 51.5w 50 kt
72hr VT 08/0000z 21.0n 56.0w 60 kt
96hr VT 09/0000z 22.0n 60.5w 70 kt
120hr VT 10/0000z 24.0n 65.0w 80 kt
Yeah. I saw this at WU. There's talk she may join up with one further south. ?????
Dang. That's big. Sorry.
It was so hot here today that I thought I was in Vegas.
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