Wariness about alternative tempers vote

AP on Yahoo ^ | 9/2/06 | David Espo - ap

[NormsRevenge]

WASHINGTON - Call it the campaign with no margin for Republican error, in a nation that is war-weary and eager for change, yet seems wary of the Democratic option.

Even Republicans tacitly concede they will lose seats in both the House and Senate in Nov. 7 elections midway through President Bush's second term. Yet Democrats, long out of power, are loath to predict publicly they will gain the six Senate and 15 House seats they need for control of Congress.

Voters like Jim Meyer are part of the reason one party is scuffling, yet the other not completely confident.

"I think we're in a lot of trouble," said the 59-year-old resident of Greenhills, Ohio, a Bush voter in 2004. His reasons: "Our commitment overseas, using our National Guard as much as we're using it, calling back our troops" to duty.

Still, he sized up the political alternative in less-than-glowing terms. "I think a lot of Democrats come across as crazies."

It's an impression Democrats are determined to negate — and Republicans eager to reinforce — in the 10 weeks from the traditional Labor Day campaign kickoff until Election Day. In all, 33 Senate seats, the entire 435-member House, 36 governorships and hundreds of ballot questions will go before the voters.

Polls show the war in Iraq is unpopular, Bush's public support is lagging, and the GOP-controlled Congress is viewed poorly by the public. In an Associated Press-Ipsos poll in August, 71 percent of those surveyed said the country was moving in the wrong direction.

As a result, Democrats hope to make the election a referendum on the president and his party. Their targets include the war, the flawed response to Hurricane Katrina, the Jack Abramoff-spawned congressional corruption scandal, the high price of gasoline, the "stay-the-course Republicans," as Rep. Rahm Emanuel (news, bio, voting record), chairman of the House campaign committee, describes them.

The call for change is nothing new for the Democrats, out of power for most of the past 12 years. "What is different this (election) cycle ... is the fact that Democrats were trying to contrive messages of anger, if you will, in 2002 and 2004," said John Anzalone, a pollster for Democrats in several competitive races.

Now, he said, "we're not trying to create that environment. The environment is there for us."

"The (political) environment is very challenging," conceded Ken Melhman, Republican Party chairman.

"The single most important thing that is critical to Republican success is making this a choice and not a referendum. There are two very different strategies for how to prosecute a global war. The reason there is going to be a choice is there are real differences."

It's a point that Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney and Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld have all made in recent days as they seek to cast the war in Iraq as central to a broader war on terror.

Having concluded they ceded the national security issue with little resistance in the last two elections, Democrats push back hard, and one recent poll said a majority of the country does not accept the administration's view of Iraq's place in the overall war on terror.

In a note of caution to their candidates, some Democratic strategists say there is no public consensus on how the military mission should end, or when.

Maybe not.

But except for seeking Bush's help in raising campaign funds, Republican incumbents are eager to emphasize their independence from him and his prosecution of the war.

That leaves the GOP senatorial and House party committees testing other themes for an autumn attempt to depict Democrats as a risky alternative in an era of terrorism.

The House GOP committee, trying to save Rep. John Hostettler (news, bio, voting record) from defeat in Indiana, began airing an ad Friday that asks whether his opponent will support the Democratic leader, California Rep. Nancy Pelosi (news, bio, voting record), for speaker. "She and other Democrats want to raise your taxes, cut and run in Iraq, and give amnesty to illegal immigrants," it says.

The Republican senatorial committee offered a different preview in Rhode Island, using a GOP candidate as a test case. It unleashed an ad accusing GOP Sen. Lincoln Chafee (news, bio, voting record)'s conservative primary challenger, Steve Laffey, of taking a position on immigration that posed a risk to the nation's security.

While 33 Senate seats are on the ballot, the outcome does not appear seriously in doubt in even a dozen races.

Republican incumbents facing particularly challenging races include Sens. Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania, Conrad Burns in Montana, Mike DeWine in Ohio and Jim Talent in Missouri.

Chafee, a moderate, faces Laffey in a Sept. 12 primary, before the winner can turn to the fall campaign in heavily Democratic Rhode Island.

Democrats also are in a competitive race in Tennessee, where Majority Leader Bill Frist is retiring, and have signaled they intend to make at least initial investments in Virginia and Arizona in hopes of closing polling gaps there.

Republicans tout their challengers against Sens. Ben Nelson in Nebraska, Maria Cantwell in Washington, Debbie Stabenow in Michigan and Robert Menendez in New Jersey, and they hope to pick up an open Democratic seat in Minnesota. Democrats lead in pre-Labor Day polls in most of those states.

Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael Steele, hoping to become the only black Republican in the Senate, faces the winner of a Democratic Sept. 12 primary.

In Connecticut, Sen. Joe Lieberman is running this fall as an independent, openly courting Republican support against the man who defeated him in the Democratic primary, anti-war challenger Ned Lamont. Republicans have abandoned their own candidate in the race.

In the House, Rep. Tom Reynolds, head of the GOP campaign effort, predicted, "There's going to be a hard fought battle over three dozen seats" out of 435.

Emanuel and the Democrats say the number is larger than that, and growing.

Whatever the number, nearly all the contested seats are in Republican hands, many in the Northeast and Midwest, meaning the Democrats are on offense. Connecticut, Pennsylvania and Indiana combined are home to 10 GOP incumbents in tough races.

Republicans also face struggles to hold seats where their incumbents retired, including Arizona, Iowa, Colorado, New York and Illinois. In Texas, where former Majority Leader Tom DeLay's summertime resignation sparked a court battle, the GOP is left with only a write-in candidate.

Republican targets are few, and include seats in Texas, Iowa, Georgia, South Carolina and Vermont, where independent Rep. Bernie Sanders is running for the Senate.

Among governors, Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger is running strongly for re-election in California, and underscored his movement toward the political center recently when he agreed with Democratic legislative leaders to limit the state's greenhouse gas emissions.

Democrats' best chances for regaining big-state governorships are in New York and Ohio, where Republican incumbents are retiring.

The GOP hopes to win back Iowa, where Democratic Gov. Tom Vilsack is stepping down, but the pre-Labor Day polls are close.

[NormsRevenge]

ap working to take the sting off of the November elections and the looming dem ass-whupping, no matter how pumped up the polls are to the otherwise?

[NormsRevenge]

"I think we're in a lot of trouble," said the 59-year-old resident of Greenhills, Ohio, a Bush voter in 2004. His reasons: "Our commitment overseas, using our National Guard as much as we're using it, calling back our troops" to duty.

Still, he sized up the political alternative in less-than-glowing terms. "I think a lot of Democrats come across as crazies."

[cardinal4]

As a result, Democrats hope to make the election a referendum on the president and his party.

I saw this quote in 2002 and 2004..

[NormsRevenge]

Retired police officer Jim Meyer, 59, stands inside the Green Hills, Ohio, fire station, Thursday, Aug. 24, 2006. Even Republicans tacitly concede they will lose seats in both the House and Senate in Nov. 7 elections midway through President Bush's second term. Yet Democrats, long out of power, are loath to predict publicly they will gain the six Senate and 15 House seats they need for control of Congress. Voters like Jim Meyer are part of the reason one party is scuffling, yet the other not completely confident. 'I think we're in a lot of trouble,' said the Bush voter in 2004. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

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Still, he sized up the political alternative in less-than-glowing terms. "I think a lot of Democrats come across as crazies."

[cripplecreek]

I don't think it looks all that bad.

http://www.nytimes.com/ref/washington/2006ELECTIONGUIDE.html?currentDataSet=senANALYSIS

[saganite]

Their targets include the war, the flawed response to Hurricane Katrina, the Jack Abramoff-spawned congressional corruption scandal, the high price of gasoline

The "flawed response" to Katrina is old news and with fewer hurricanes so far this year to remind voters will not be as big an issue as the Dems hope. On the other hand, Blanco's stock in La. is very low. Gasoline prices are coming down pretty fast. Folks are likely to breath a sigh of relief and even give Bush some credit for the decrease although it's only a seasonal drop and they will go back up next driving season. I notice Terrorism isn't mentioned. Bush's ratings went up after the recent airline terrorist scare. The Abrahmof scandal hasn't generated any headlines recently and there are 2 possible reasons why. The Dems are holding their fire on the issue until October when folks are paying attention or they don't want to raise it again because some Dems are in as deep as any of the Republican candidates.

[prion]

Polls show the war in Iraq is unpopular, Bush's public support is lagging, and the GOP-controlled Congress is viewed poorly by the public. In an Associated Press-Ipsos poll in August, 71 percent of those surveyed said the country was moving in the wrong direction.

Yes, but that direction is Left to a significant number of responders. How's that going to help the Dems?

[Valin]

Still, he sized up the political alternative in less-than-glowing terms. "I think a lot of Democrats come across as crazies."

It's an impression Democrats are determined to negate


As long as they keep talking they have no chance of negating their insanity.

There are two major political parties. The Evil party, and the Stupid party. I am a member of the Stupid party
Dennis Prager

[GBA]

"There are two major political parties. The Evil party, and the Stupid party."

I realized that a after Reagan's last term and now register as an Independent but usually vote for "Stupid". I sure miss Reagan.

[Soul Seeker]

The Republican senatorial committee offered a different preview in Rhode Island, using a GOP candidate as a test case. It unleashed an ad accusing GOP Sen. Lincoln Chafee (news, bio, voting record)'s conservative primary challenger, Steve Laffey, of taking a position on immigration that posed a risk to the nation's security.

LOL!!!

Yeah, I heard about that. The much...spoken of GOP Senatorial Committee is attacking Laffey as WEAK on the border. This in defense of Chafee, who has given amnesty a kiss and warm embrace.

I really don't know whether to laugh hysterically or..no, there really is no other option. The same group that impugns our characters inferring racism, is smacking Laffey about for not being like Tancredo, Hayworth, Sessions...when their candidate is far worse. They really do think their base is stupid.

It does show despite their spin doctoring, that they KNOW their base does NOT embrace the sell out plan offered by Pence, McCain and Bush. Otherwise they wouldn't have taken this tack in the primary.

Anyway, is the AP worried?

Yeah.

I've said all along this come down to turnout. The GOP's high point in turnout, going by 2004, is larger then the Dems. IF the people that have supported Reps turn out, Democrats will even lose seats this year. Democrats can't influence the GOP's base. They can't make us stay home or go vote. Therefore they cannot be really confident because the elections hinge on OUR turnout, NOT the Koskiddies.

But, then, the GOP no longer has the same influence with their "base" as they had in 2002 and 2004 either. And they know we're extremely angry at them right now. Or indifferent. So they predict they'll lose seats. Because they know it depends on turnout as well.

For my part I've consistently predicted status quo. Maybe a couple seats plus or minus but nothing significant. I haven't altered the prediction yet, though I suspect I will later in October.

I guess I feel less trepidation about the upcoming elections, though, because I'm confident we're the ones that will determine what will happen. Not the RNC, not the DNC, not the media, not the polls. Not even the boy prince of the netroots Kos himself. Nope. Instead it will be the millions of conservative and patriotic Americans that will reach a collective decision after much thought. And I trust them.

Is that trust predicated on a certain end result? No.

Frankly the Republicans DO deserved to be taught a lesson about arrogance and deceiving conservative platforms they have no intention to act upon, though their constituents rightly expected them to do so. But the Dems are mad. In the crazy sense. I trust the American people, that voted the Republicans a majority in '94, '02 and '04, Reagan and '43 second terms... will choose which party needs to be dealt with first..correctly.

Either way there will be pain.

Allow Dems power and the lunatics will sign a treaty stating we'll all convert to Islam.

Allow Reps power and their RINO hides will think they have free reign to be as liberal as they damn well please. And Liberalism and all it entails IS a danger to this country. Only in a different form.

I'm not comfortable with either, but either can be dealt with.

The first will probably follow the Jimmah' route. Lots of immediate pain, but in short time relatively speaking repudiated in force in the next election.

The second will open up a flood of primary challengers come '08. And, of yes Linds, you are my premier target. Run Ravenal Run!

[LadyPilgrim]

I'm not giving in to their predictions. The msm and polls lie anyway.
Why should we believe what they say now?

Most of it is just their wishful thinking.

[NormsRevenge]

article has been re-titled

Democrats loath to predict win this fall

[Valin]

I've said all along this come down to turnout.

It always does my friend! 50%+1=a win.