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While I disagree with many Frum's particulars, I think that Republicans and conservatives generally MUST face up to certain plain demographic and economic realities:

(1) American workers will continue to become less competitive globally, as low wage countries continue to ramp up their productivity, capacity, and sophistication far faster than they are ramping up their workers' wages. The equilibrium point -- of real, taxable income derived from productivity -- is probably somewhere around HALF of the real, taxable income received by an average worker in America now.

(2) the burden of Baby Boomer's Medicare, Medicaid for end of life, Social Security, and state and local public worker pensions is ENORMOUS now, and it will become even larger when technology figures how to extend the typical retiree's life by 10 or more years from where the actuaries now figure it. And if the actuaries are TOO optimistic about birth rates and net immigration, as they may well be, then there will be even fewer workers to support the retirees than now modeled.

What this means is that before very long, the majority of Americans will be DIRECTLY dependent upon government intervention to maintain the decent lifestyle they see as their right. Retirees and the soon-to-be-retired need the government to support them. Workers will need the government to subsidize (in one way or another) their lack of productivity vs. global competition AND offset the burden of supporting the retirees. And when you factor in everyone who makes a living from selling goods and services to that vast group of people, well, there's another source of support for intervention.

Republicans will need to have good, timely and sensible answers to these challenges. Some of those answers WILL be strategic retreats, but others of them need to be strong, principled defenses of the market, which are nevertheless sensitive to realities. Choice in education can be victorious, choice in healthcare can be preserved and even grow, incentives for innovation and entrepreneurship can be maintained, etc.

The one thing that is quite certain is that more appeals to social conservativism will NOT be the solution. A lot of people may dislike abortion and gay marriage; very few of those people are going to be willing to SACRIFICE to vindicate those views. When a Democrat, without capable Republican refutation, puts the choice to people that they can either start to live like the working class in Shanghai or Bangalore, or just decide to live and let live regarding gay marriage, but not both, don't have any doubt which may most people will go.

Well said - I'd only add that there are a lot of paradoxes that it's currently impossible for either conventional “liberal” or “conservative” approaches to resolve.

One example is immigration. Substantial immigration is the only way we can archive sufficient demographic balance to support the large demographic bulge of older Americans over the next 40 years - just asking (or forcing) people to “save more for retirement” without sufficient available younger workers during their retirement years does not solve the problem as it will bid up the price of services being provided by a too small number of working age Americans to too large a number of retries – those who save more will be relatively better off, but retirees as a group will be worse off in absolute terms.

But meanwhile, immigration almost certainly depresses the wages of native-born workers, possibly creates a short-term net-cost (it appears that the jury is still out on the accounting) and certainly creates social and political friction between recent immigrants, earlier immigrants, and native-born Americans – which in turn is mostly exploited by politicians in both major parties for short-term political advantage rather than long-term economic and political stability.

When a Democrat, without capable Republican refutation, puts the choice to people that they can either start to live like the working class in Shanghai or Bangalore, or just decide to live and let live regarding gay marriage, but not both, don't have any doubt which may most people will go.
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This scenario is only possible if you take as a given that the government in question has the ability to provide it's citizens with these choices. It will always be the conservative position that the people are the only agent that can provide these services to themselves. Government has a very limited role in peoples lives if it is to be successful.

America is now a debtor nation. We are paying bills on credit. We have mortgaged the equity on our homes and real property with the assumption that prosperity will always bless America. We have deluded ourselves into thinking that America controls its own destiny and the destiny of the entire world. We are now a service orientated economy that imports what it needs from nations that produce. Consequently our government can no longer guarantee that it will be able to provide for our well being into the future. Entitlements will come due and government won't be able to pay. Oil is no longer in our control. Basic goods are imported and depend on exporting countries being willing to take our notes as payment for their goods.

America is like the drug addict who, when first using the drug, finds a euphoria and excitement never experienced before. As he continues to seek that euphoria he demands increasing amounts of the drug until finally he is past his ability to pay, and experiences the inevitable breakdown in which his euphoria is turned into a nightmare of constant craving of that which he can never have.

We are heading for that breakdown, after years of euphoria. The Iranian-muslim threat will be the catalyst. Oil will be the weapon, and depression and possible chaos will be the result.

The things that the government should be doing, defeating our enemy, defending our borders. It is failing to do. The things that it has no business doing, public education, health care, social security, welfare, food stamps, environmental protection, affirmative action, and on and on, it is doing to excess. This is the formula for disaster. There can be no compromise on our basic founding principles. We will suffer the consequences of the road we are going down, and soon. The difference between republicans and conservatives is that republicans must get elected. It is the duty of the people, conservatives included, to demand that elected officials act in our best interests. In the end we will get for better or worse, the government we deserve.