Tropical Storm Ernesto 9-1-2006

NWS/NHC ^ | 31 August 2006 | NHC

[NautiNurse]

Tropical Storm Ernesto is nearing landfall at Cape Fear NC, with 70 mph winds, pressure 988 mb, and potential rainfall of 5-15 inches in some areas. Flash floods are a real and significant threat. Flash floods were being reported in some coastal cities by midafternoon.

Virginia's governor declared a state of emergency and hundreds of National Guardsmen were activated there and in the Carolinas. State ferry service from Ocracoke to Cedar Island on the mainland was canceled as a precaution. Campgrounds in the area were closed.

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Wilmington NC
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Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:

Tropical Storm Ernesto
Hurricane Ernesto
TS/Hurricane/TS Ernesto
TS/Hurricane/TS/TD Ernesto
Tropical Storm Ernesto leaves Florida and heads for the Carolinas

[dirtboy]

Yesterday we had Invest 98L designated halfway between Africa and the Windwards. Now we have Invest 99L, a wave that is starting to get it's act together a bit more - and it's right atop the northern islands:

This is probably the main system to watch now. I wouldn't worry about the SHIPS forecast winds at this point.

[dirtboy]

There's what looks like a stinkin' feeder band through South Jersey and into the Philly burbs.

[Dog Gone]

I'll have to check that out. Yesterday, that wave looked like garbage.

[dirtboy]

Looking at the water vapor image, I don't see how it could develop much for at least a couple of days - the air around it is dry as a bone, and it looks like it's facing a bit of shear from the SW as well - typical el Nino shear pattern. I have a feeling Dr. Gray's forecast of 2 intense hurricanes for September is going to have a hard time materializing given the dry air and persistent shear.

[Dog Gone]

You're right. It still looks like garbage.

[dirtboy]

The one that is just west of Africa looks better, but it too has a lot of dry air in front of it.

[nwctwx]

This is the wave that I was watching a few days back, but most of the convection had disappeared since. This area of the Atlantic basin is definately more favorable for development than the others.

[dirtboy]

Yeah, but the water vapor image doesn't look good for much development over the next couple of days. Maybe when it gets to the western Caribbean - anyway, the eastern Caribbean typically is not a place conducive for storm formation.

[nwctwx]

Recon is scheduled for tomorrow.

---

000
NOUS42 KNHC 021500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SAT 02 SEP 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z SEP 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-095

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN SEA)
A. 03/2100Z
B. 01HHA INVEST
C. 03/1545Z
D. 16.0N 067.0W
E. 03/2000Z TO 04/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 12 HOURLY FIXES NEAR
16.5N 72.5W AT 04/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

[dirtboy]

Meanwhile, over in the East Pac, check out the water vapor image. John sure is sending a lot of moisture up to Texas and the Four Corners area. There is now concern about flooding over the next few days.

[Dog Gone]

I don't know what the conditions in the Four Corners area are, but Texas (except for the El Paso area) would almost welcome some flooding.

[tarheelswamprat]

Update on this previous post from Thursday night:

re:I posted this prayer request on the previous thread, and NautiNurse has graciously allowed me to repost it here:

My cousin Jack has has been taken to New Hanover Medical Center in Wilmington this evening for emergency heart surgery. They are waiting till the hurricane passes through but need to operate as soon as the storm abates. I ask my FReeper friends to remember him in your prayers, and thank you in advance for you kindness.

Jack was operated on successfully Friday morning through early afternoon. Now, after 24 hours he has stabilized and is doing well. Many thanks to everyone who offered their prayers and support! FReepers are the best!

[dirtboy]

That is wonderful news! So glad to hear he's ok!

[abner]

Floors aren't dry cause we are steaming the carpets... Walls are intact... VOC did forget to close the trunk on my car when he was bringing the steamer in. He noticed that when he got up at 3AM and looked out the window to see that Ernesto had apparently wrapped back around us and was pummeling us with rain.. Including my now clean trunk...

But..... our power did go out at about 3:00 AM and just came back on around 3 this afternoon..

The generator saga--- This morning VOC went out and got BOTH generators running! He got them hooked up and running with cords running through the house at about 3 this afternoon. Bless his heart.. So, it proves once again, the sooner you get the generators up and running, the sooner power will be restored!

PECO had told us that power wouldn't be restored until midnight.

[NautiNurse]

Jack was operated on successfully

Thanks for the update and the good news. New Hanover RMC is a very good facility. Best wishes for his full and rapid recovery.

[NautiNurse]

Girl! Last I heard, you were planning to paint 5 rooms; now it's steam cleaning the carpets. I'm exhausted just reading about all of your endeavors.

Eeesh to the bad timing for an open car trunk. Hooray that both your generators work, and they aren't needed tonight!

[abner]

Well, I was supposed to paint and VOC was to be steaming... Plans have changed a bit... Hopefully, I can get back on the painting tomorrow when that floor is dry.

I have to say, the Rug Doctor really is an amazing machine.

[NautiNurse]

I have to say, the Rug Doctor really is an amazing machine.

Do you know if they make a Tile Doctor machine too?

p.s. You are a brave one to steam clean the carpets before painting the ceilings and walls! :o)

[dirtboy]

Well, back to weather updates. Up here in the Philly area, we've got some Flash Flood warnings. Some strange pseudo-feeder bands have been setting up all afternoon coming off the ocean and into Jersey and SE Pennsylvania. Right now, we have warnings for Northen Chester County (including French Creek into Phoenixville), and Southern Bucks County (Neshamminy Creek). Nothing major at this point, but if these bands keep developing, it could get worse later. Looks like there are some scattered flood warnings in New Jersey as well.

[abner]

Some strange pseudo-feeder bands have been setting up all afternoon coming off the ocean and into Jersey and SE Pennsylvania.

Yes, I noticed that... Looks like a narrow tenticle going hundreds of miles offshore.