...O'Houlihan???
Posted on 08/31/2006 11:46:13 AM PDT by .cnI redruM
U.S. Senator Lincoln Chafee may lose his seat to challenger Steve Laffey, according to a new statewide Republican primary voter poll released today by the Bureau of Government Research and Services at Rhode Island College.
The survey was conducted August 28-30, 2006, at Rhode Island College by Victor L. Profughi, director of the Bureau of Government Research and Services. It is based on a statewide random sample of 363 likely Republican primary voters in Rhode Island. The sample was proportioned among the state’s geographic regions to reflect the likely voter contribution from each portion of the state. Overall, the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.1 percentage points.
If the September 12 primary were held today, 51 percent say they will vote for Steve Laffey, 34 percent support Senator Chafee, and 15 percent are undecided. A BGRS survey of Republican voters conducted in June had Laffey at 39 percent and Chafee at 36 percent. Chafee’s base is virtually unchanged since the June survey, while the number of Laffey supporters has grown 12 percentage points.
In the current poll, Laffey buries Chafee among male voters by nearly a 2 to 1 margin, 58 percent to 32 percent, with only 9 percent undecided. This gap has widened from 10 percent in June to 26 percent today. Among women, Chafee’s support has remained stagnant, while Laffey’s has increased. In June, 37 percent favored Chafee, compared with the current 36 percent. Laffey’s support among women has gone up from 35 percent in June to 45 percent.
Regionally, Laffey leads Chafee in Newport County (58 percent to 25 percent), in the Providence Suburbs (56 percent to 33 percent), Blackstone Valley (49 percent to 32 percent), Washington County (48 percent to 39 percent), and Western Rhode Island (42 percent to 37). Chafee is ahead only in the city of Providence (53 percent to 40 percent) and the East Bay (40 percent to 36 percent). Among unaffiliated voters, Chafee’s support has slipped from 49 percent in June to 43 percent now, while Laffey’s strength has gone up 10 percentage points (31 percent to 41 percent).
“Since early summer, Senator Chafee has been unable to expand his base of support from roughly one third of the likely Republican primary voters. The Lieberman phenomenon, where a partisan base closes ranks around the ‘true partisan’ candidate, seems to be at work in Rhode Island, as it was on the Democratic side in Connecticut. Laffey’s efforts to link Chafee with the extremely unpopular President Bush also appear to be paying off,” said Profughi.
Respondents polled were also asked who they would vote for in the Republican Primary race for Lieutenant Governor between Reginald Centracchio and Kerry King. Nearly half of those surveyed are either undecided or will not vote on this race (51 percent). Among voters, Centracchio has a 2 to 1 lead over King (31 percent to 18 percent).
The survey was conducted at a centralized telephone bank on the RIC campus on Monday, August 28 through Wednesday, August 30, between 5:00 and 9:00 p. m. The sample of 363 voters consisted of persons who identified themselves as likely Republican primary voters. Those interviewed were randomly chosen from most recent updated voting lists provided by the Office of the Secretary of State and were limited to registered Republicans and unaffiliated voters who said they planned to vote in the Republican primary.
The sample was controlled to reflect likely voter contribution by geographic region. Survey design, implementation, and administration were supervised by Profughi, who has nearly 40 years of experience conducting public opinion surveys in Rhode Island. He and members of his supervisory and computer analysis team have conducted more than 1,000 surveys in the state since 1970.
Overall, the current poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.
fyi, NM was red in 2004 and we have 1 senator there and we are battling in PA with santorum and specter and in WI where we could pick one up and we could pick up MN too.
Actually if we run the table with pick ups in MD,NJ,MN,WI and WA and hold all of our own, we get to 60. It the dems run the table and hold all their own and pick up RI,OH,MO,TN,PA,Montana, they get to 51.
Neither is likely to happen, but they are both possiblities.
And Chafee is just a 3rd generation trust fund kid. All things being equal, I'll take the small town mayor.
If he could be counted on to remain a republican, one could argue that voting for him could allow the pubbies to keep control of the senate. The problem is that he cannot be counted on. He has stated that he would strongly consider switching parties if that would give control of the semate to the dumbs.
I've been criticized for saying that the worst republican is better than the best dem, but the one exception is Lincoln Chafee.
I think the Founding Fathers would probably disagree with you about the concept of citizen legislators. The careerists are more concerned with keeping power than they are in doing the right thing.
I think you meant to say "It's a question of having at least some party discipline when I want party discipline and a revolt when I want a revolt"
I suspect you applauded the House revolt against the president and the senate on immigration. Chaffee is the incumbent and you are supporting the revolt against him. You supported the failed revolt funded by tancredo against another Utah incumbent.
Can't the Independent Filing Deadline in RI has already past, unlike in CT where it was a week after the primary.
I would too, but you will not get the small town mayor. You will get the democrat who will side with the america hating left.
ACU gave Chafee a 12% rating, they gave McCain an 80% rating. Thats quite a gap.
Maybe you can answer this for me. No one else has even tried.
If RI is so liberal and so heavily democrat, why have they been electing a Republican for years? Granted, he is a liberal pubbie, but he is a pubbie. Why?
Could it be that the people want a real republican, but the GOP keeps getting in the way and propping up Chafee?
Good God, man.
Show me any senator from either party that was or is up to the job?
What requirements do you see missing?
Rudy is a big city mayor and people want to make him president. Do you have a problem with that leap?
There are 363 Republicans in Rhode Island? Who knew?
This is good news though. With Chafee out of the way the national GOP wont be wasting any money trying to keep an old patrician blue-blood in the GOP. The GOP has (thankfully) shifted from the New England elitists like Jeffords, Chafee, et al and has moved toward George Allen/ Mel Martinez style of republicanism.
I hope so, but a lot can happen in the last two weeks.
Although I'm not all that familiar with RI politics,I believe that the name Chaffee has long been a familiar one in the state.I suspect that that's part of it.Also,Chaffee is about as far from being a Republican as one can be,despite what he puts next to his name on election day.
Just look at the voting record of RI in Presidential elections.Apart from DC,I think RI gives democRAT nominees a bigger margin of victory than any other state.
Great news!!!
A stinking RINO gets flushed down the bowl by a real Republican - who, hopefully, will whip the Demonrat.
Now if Santorum can whip Casey, things might start looking up.
How can anyone support him less? Chaffee didn't even vote for Bush in the last election and was proud to say so.
Keep in mind... sample size, 361
And it has geographic quotas...
It was the vote against Alito that may have sealed Chaffee's fate, regardless. The sizable Italian population in Rhode Island was very upset over Chaffee's vote.
Even if Chaffee wins the Republican primary, he would likely be a dead duck in November anyway. (Not much difference between Chaffee and the Dem candidate, and a reason to vote against Chaffee due to his vote on Alito.)
Based on this I would argue that Laffey just may give Republicans a better chance of winning in November.
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