Posted on 08/31/2006 11:46:13 AM PDT by .cnI redruM
U.S. Senator Lincoln Chafee may lose his seat to challenger Steve Laffey, according to a new statewide Republican primary voter poll released today by the Bureau of Government Research and Services at Rhode Island College.
The survey was conducted August 28-30, 2006, at Rhode Island College by Victor L. Profughi, director of the Bureau of Government Research and Services. It is based on a statewide random sample of 363 likely Republican primary voters in Rhode Island. The sample was proportioned among the state’s geographic regions to reflect the likely voter contribution from each portion of the state. Overall, the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.1 percentage points.
If the September 12 primary were held today, 51 percent say they will vote for Steve Laffey, 34 percent support Senator Chafee, and 15 percent are undecided. A BGRS survey of Republican voters conducted in June had Laffey at 39 percent and Chafee at 36 percent. Chafee’s base is virtually unchanged since the June survey, while the number of Laffey supporters has grown 12 percentage points.
In the current poll, Laffey buries Chafee among male voters by nearly a 2 to 1 margin, 58 percent to 32 percent, with only 9 percent undecided. This gap has widened from 10 percent in June to 26 percent today. Among women, Chafee’s support has remained stagnant, while Laffey’s has increased. In June, 37 percent favored Chafee, compared with the current 36 percent. Laffey’s support among women has gone up from 35 percent in June to 45 percent.
Regionally, Laffey leads Chafee in Newport County (58 percent to 25 percent), in the Providence Suburbs (56 percent to 33 percent), Blackstone Valley (49 percent to 32 percent), Washington County (48 percent to 39 percent), and Western Rhode Island (42 percent to 37). Chafee is ahead only in the city of Providence (53 percent to 40 percent) and the East Bay (40 percent to 36 percent). Among unaffiliated voters, Chafee’s support has slipped from 49 percent in June to 43 percent now, while Laffey’s strength has gone up 10 percentage points (31 percent to 41 percent).
“Since early summer, Senator Chafee has been unable to expand his base of support from roughly one third of the likely Republican primary voters. The Lieberman phenomenon, where a partisan base closes ranks around the ‘true partisan’ candidate, seems to be at work in Rhode Island, as it was on the Democratic side in Connecticut. Laffey’s efforts to link Chafee with the extremely unpopular President Bush also appear to be paying off,” said Profughi.
Respondents polled were also asked who they would vote for in the Republican Primary race for Lieutenant Governor between Reginald Centracchio and Kerry King. Nearly half of those surveyed are either undecided or will not vote on this race (51 percent). Among voters, Centracchio has a 2 to 1 lead over King (31 percent to 18 percent).
The survey was conducted at a centralized telephone bank on the RIC campus on Monday, August 28 through Wednesday, August 30, between 5:00 and 9:00 p. m. The sample of 363 voters consisted of persons who identified themselves as likely Republican primary voters. Those interviewed were randomly chosen from most recent updated voting lists provided by the Office of the Secretary of State and were limited to registered Republicans and unaffiliated voters who said they planned to vote in the Republican primary.
The sample was controlled to reflect likely voter contribution by geographic region. Survey design, implementation, and administration were supervised by Profughi, who has nearly 40 years of experience conducting public opinion surveys in Rhode Island. He and members of his supervisory and computer analysis team have conducted more than 1,000 surveys in the state since 1970.
Overall, the current poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.
Chafee never EVER votes Republican on any bill with a chance of passing.
My understanding is that Chafee has broadly suggested he would vote Democrat.
On just about every scorecard out there, Chafee ranks at the bottom or a step above bottom. If there is anyone in the Senate that has earned the term RINO, it's Chafee.
Laffee is no peach and I'd have trouble voting for him, but losing the seat to a Dem isn't much of a loss. Rather than the GOP propping him up, their (our) money would be better spent helping a conservative or at least a real conservative to offset this seat.
They won't, because party always trumps principle with the GOP.
The Founders wanted citizen legislators, but the system in those days was much, much simpler and government was infinitely smaller.
Today, our adversaries are not only very entrenched, but very professional. We need professionals to fight them.
To find professionals who are mostly concerned about "doing the right thing" rather than "keeping power" is difficult, as I've indicated.
No way does that lie hold up in Rhode Island. They may be moderates but they're not stupid. They know that Chaffee has said he didn't even vote for President Bush in the Presidential election.
never but f-ck chafee anyway
That's got to be one powerful name for the dems to abandon one of their own to vote for a pubbie.
I don't know the answer and your suggestion is the closest that I've been able to get to an answer.
Thanks.
Ooops!
"...helping a conservative or at least a real conservative..."
Should read:
"... helping a conservative or at least a real Republican..."
Hmmmm...simpler system; smaller government...sounds pretty good to me. We should be moving in that direction but sadly we're not.
1) I like your tagline!
2) Bye-bye Linkie!
"responsibilities befitting a Senator."
The only responsibility is to be a 30 year old American citizen and live in the state you are running.
I'd rather he never served in office.
Haven't you had enough of professional politicians?
Most of em are spineless.
The Dems know they have Chafee in their back pocket .. and they love to use him as a thorn in our side
Like I said .. kick Chafee to the curb
YEAH!!!! laffey is a FABULOUS candidate!!
No...Chaffee is losing because he ISN'T supporting the President and the war for civilization!!
What are you TALKING about/?? Laffey is going to win and be a Senator that RI can be PROUD of...not the laughing stock that Chaffee is.
I was going to send you a warning first, but then decided to just jump in. ;-)
Did you see the debate??? Laffey CREAMED him......he is a very reasonable person.
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