Posted on 08/31/2006 7:40:22 AM PDT by Quilla
I suspect that you have found recent events in Lebanon rather disconcerting. One of your leaders, Hassan Nasrallah, the head of Hezb’allah, is quoted as saying:
“We did not think, even one percent, that the capture would lead to a war at this time and of this magnitude. You ask me, if I had known on July 11 … that the operation would lead to such a war, would I do it? I say no, absolutely not, for humanitarian, moral, social, security, military and political reasons. Neither I, Hezb’allah, prisoners in Israeli jails nor the families of the prisoners would accept it.”
Your traditional strategy, of using terrorist tactics while counting on your enemies to adhere to the rules of diplomacy and formal warfare, doesn’t seem to be working any more.
What you have really done, by past decades of terrorism, is open a Pandora’s Box of horrors that may ultimately harm you and your people more than anyone else. This toughening of the tactics of Western powers is merely an example of Magruder’s Law that:
“Combat inevitably sinks to the lowest common denominator of the combatants. If you like to wrestle in the mud and your opponent likes to gouge out eyes, then sooner or later you will both be eye-gouging in the mud.”
Civilization is essentially a compact of non-violence, a mutual agreement that certain measures will not be used by any party under any circumstances. Pieces of paper like the Geneva conventions are merely reiterations of that agreement.
But whenever this covenant is broken by one party for a sufficiently long period, it is inevitable that their opponents, and eventually everybody else, will break it too. The end result is Magruder’s Law, which applies whenever terrorism is countered by escalation. In essence, the terrorist teaches his enemies to use his own tactics against himself.
When the Germans started to use poison gas in WWI, it was regarded by the English and French with numb horror as something unthinkably cruel. But within months, they were using poison gas against the Germans, with improvements of their own. By the end of the war, gas warfare had claimed over a million casualties, many of them German.
At the start of WWII, England fought in a gentlemanly fashion, not hitting until they were first hit and scrupulously confining themselves to military targets. Then Hitler flagrantly violated that covenant by bombing civilian neighborhoods in London and other British cities, with the sole objective of terrorizing the British people. It took a few years but when the Allies had the power to retaliate they used it, bombing German cities with a rather half-hearted regard for whether targets were military or civilian and needlessly annihilating Dresden in what many think was a payback for Coventry. In the end, over ten percent of Germany’s people died in the war.
Japan pulled off the ultimate terrorist attack at Pearl Harbor, killing over 2,400 people. Our immediate response was what would nowadays be called “proportionate”—Doolttle’s daylight raid on Tokyo. But our anger festered over the years and was fed by news of later atrocities such as the Bataan death march. The end result was Hiroshima and Nagasaki and nearly a million dead Japanese.. I know that all sorts of pragmatic arguments were advanced, even cogent ones, but I contend that if Pearl Harbor had not occurred, we probably would not have used our atomic weapons.
Magruder’s Law may not apply during a short combat. It sometimes takes years or even a generation. During the Viet Nam War, when American troops were exposed for the first time to dirty no-holds-barred guerrilla warfare, the first signs of retaliation under stress appeared only near the end, in incidents such as the My Lai massacre, which may have been inspired by the Viet Cong’s prior massacre of Montagnard refugees at Dak Son.
And already in Iraq, there have been isolated ugly incidents that indicate that the patience of the US forces may be wearing thin. Although you may think that this will be to your advantage, you are mistaken. You don’t want escalation when dealing with an enemy with our resources, resolution, and (as cited above) our penchant for delayed but massive “disproportionate” retaliation.
You seem to have forgotten that the basic purpose of terrorism is to terrorize, to make your enemy cower, panic, and flee. Thus, successful terrorism is always a conspicuous exception to Magruder’s Law. On the other hand, when terrorism does not frighten the enemy but makes him more angry, the consequent escalation may be more than the terrorist bargained for and may work to his downfall—especially if his resources are inferior to those of his enemy.
But you have gone even further. First, by persisting in attempts to terrorize the Israeli people, who after sixty years of such tactics are uniquely resistant to them, you have succeeded only in goading them to increased aggressiveness. Second, by embarking upon policies such as the use of human shields, you are actually terrorizing your own people by exposing them to ever increasing danger and thereby weakening their resolve.
And there are signs that you may try to employ this suicidal procedure against the United States. I am particularly alarmed by the recent news that Iran has been trying to acquire cesium, for the obvious purpose of instigating some sort of radioisotope terrorist atrocity. Bear in mind that you are planning such an attack against the biggest nuclear power in the world and the only one that has actually used nuclear weapons against an enemy. The only thing that restrained us during the Cold War, aside from fear of reprisal, was a mutually agreed upon taboo. If an Islamic power violates that taboo and uses nuclear weapons against the US, what form do you think our retaliation will take? And how “proportionate” do you think it will be?
Is that what you really want? Does the prospect of your wives and children becoming martyrs of Jihad fill you with joy? If so, then I suppose I have nothing more to say. But if you are expecting the U.S. to continue to exercise Judeo-Christian restraint and compassion in response to your attacks, then according your own accusations, you are wrong. If what you have been saying about our degeneracy is true; then we are no longer a morally restrained Judeo-Christian nation. If most of us are, as you claim, hedonistic materialists, then we are just as capable of vengeance and cruelty as you are.
I do not mean this as a threat, but as an urgent warning. I am trying to make you realize that you—and your families—are at the edge of a slope, a steep muddy slope that slides down irreversibly into an unthinkably horrible pit in which the people of Islam may ultimately perish.
I wouldn't think twice about going native and slicing some throats if it came to that.
I don't dream, I know!
Interesting opinion. I have a fishing buddy that claims that if such a scenario happened, and the democrats did nothing, the peasants and pitchforks deal would be forthcoming. I think he is a sunny optimist.
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I guess they have already forgotten WW1.
BTTT
Dear S, just want to say thanks for all you do to call these items to our attention. I really appreciate it.
Regardless of who is in power, there would be a response of the greatest magnitude. The citizenry would demand it.
There is no political correctness attached to a nuke.
I do not mean this as a threat, but as an urgent warning. I am trying to make you realize that you—and your families—are at the edge of a slope, a steep muddy slope that slides down irreversibly into an unthinkably horrible pit in which the people of Islam may ultimately perish.
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I feel better already! Thanks for that brilliant post!
.
A superb piece. Thank you for posting it here.
Great doc.
Thanks.
I think if we are attacked like you described..there wouldn't be TIME for all of those things you think would happen to stop it...
Bush has the responsibility and the BUTTON>
Mark for later read.
Care to support your certitude with some piece of evidence? Anything? Because I on the other hand do have plenty of doubt. (And this is no flame, mind you.) When a dirty bomb is exploded in an American city by unknown hands or by stateless terrorists, who do you think our fearless leaders would target in retaliation? When sixteen of the nineteen 911 perps were Saudi nationals funded by the Saudi rich, what did we do except continue playing footsie with the 13,000 princes there?!
Interesting historical perspective and I see your point about Allah not always proving reliable as their "shield". Such misplaced trust has, in their past, lead to big mistakes as you stated. And probably will again in the future. As you said, those who do not learn...
However even if the jihadists don't receive the "protection factor" they expected, being killed is still not not a bad option. They believe they get that trip to paradise with all the generous perks. Besides, Islam is so hopelessly backward they have virtually no chance of catching up with an ever advancing western world. That was pretty much my point. Jihad is a way out. Either destroy the enemy or destroy yourself trying.
I really feel that the current nutjob of a president of IRAN probably gets his jollies everyday on that fantasy!!
In his little twisted mind warped in the bloody doctrine of Islam (The Religion of Peace), nothing will give him satisfaction (or probably orgasm) than to see hordes of people (preferably Americans, Christians & Jews) killed at the altar of Islam; if a couple million of his own people are needed to achieve this then he can easily spare them too.
Didn't Japan Nuke us first?
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