[crasher]

My other thoughts. Why is OH-18 in the tossup column instead of Leaning R? I don't know what to think about IN-02, but I don't think it is one of our top 7 threats to lose a seat. Same with IN-08. By same token I was somewhat surprised that PA-06 was not in his top 7 in terms of GOP vulnerability (on other hand evidently the last poll there released some time ago has us down 1 and it was a D poll). I am surprised CT-04 is not in his list of 17 most vulnerable GOP seats. And I am surprised NY-24 is not on list of 24 most vulnerable GOP seats.

[Torie]

I agree with all of that (particularly Shays, but maybe Rothenberg is influenced by his kiss-up to Lieberman, and the Lieberman effect; color me unpersuaded), but the Rothenberg variations from conventional wisdom seem marginal. In the case of Chicola, until the recent GOP surge in Indiana it was a slightly Dem leaning seat. Maybe it is going back to historical baseline. It includes South Bend, and was made a bit more Dem in the 2000 redistricting. Ditto the Sodrel seat, particularly since it excised that county that is being increasingly encroached with exurban Cincinnati. Dems don't like or want exurban Cincinnati.

[Torie]

I would also like to see a poll on the Shaw seat. He is a well entrenced and respected incumbent in a Dem leaning seat. Has the tide really affected him that much? Outside of the NE and Midwest, that type seems to be surviving. Plus, his seat has lots of Jews. Are they going to be more Dem than usual this year, all in all, given the violence in the Middle East?