I would also like to see a poll on the Shaw seat. He is a well entrenced and respected incumbent in a Dem leaning seat. Has the tide really affected him that much? Outside of the NE and Midwest, that type seems to be surviving. Plus, his seat has lots of Jews. Are they going to be more Dem than usual this year, all in all, given the violence in the Middle East?
As far as I can tell, the Republicans in 2002 removed the parts of the district that voted against Shaw in 2000, namely the Miami-Dade portion. The territory should be much more favorable to Shaw than when he had close races.