Hefley ponders run at CO-05 seat as write-in

Colorado Springs Gazette ^ | August 29, 2006 | Ed Sealover

[Torie]

I am just not sure why so many are pulling the trigger on Drake. Bush got 58% in her district. What is wrong with Drake? I really respect Rothenberg, but would quibble with some of his placements, like Northrup, but it is within the ballpark. Then again, he does this for a living, and works hard at it, and has access to more information than I. I would like to see a poll for the Hostettler race. He is such an odd character, that applying generalities to him, just isn't my bag.

[r9etb]

Doesn't sound like Hefley did much "pondering." The Colorado Springs Gazette article was just plain false

The Gazette is a pretty piss-poor paper when it comes to news reporting. Their stable of reporters is quite young, naive, very easily misled, and judging by their writing, not very bright.

And thus you get "scoops" like this one.

[crasher]

People may be freaked out that Kaine carried VA-02. Iraq and general anti-incumbent sentiment. don't know. I think that one is a little high on his list of vulnerability.

[Torie]

I agree with all of that (particularly Shays, but maybe Rothenberg is influenced by his kiss-up to Lieberman, and the Lieberman effect; color me unpersuaded), but the Rothenberg variations from conventional wisdom seem marginal. In the case of Chicola, until the recent GOP surge in Indiana it was a slightly Dem leaning seat. Maybe it is going back to historical baseline. It includes South Bend, and was made a bit more Dem in the 2000 redistricting. Ditto the Sodrel seat, particularly since it excised that county that is being increasingly encroached with exurban Cincinnati. Dems don't like or want exurban Cincinnati.

[Torie]

The Kaine thing as a benchmark has not much traction for me. The GOP candidate in that race would not appeal, and did not appeal, to the Norfolk area. And Drake's district is in or adjacent to navy land. I have to wonder if Iraq has as much traction there, as say it does, in Greenwich, a rather prosperous little town in Shays district. :)

[Torie]

I would also like to see a poll on the Shaw seat. He is a well entrenced and respected incumbent in a Dem leaning seat. Has the tide really affected him that much? Outside of the NE and Midwest, that type seems to be surviving. Plus, his seat has lots of Jews. Are they going to be more Dem than usual this year, all in all, given the violence in the Middle East?

[crasher]

The thing about Shays is I am not aware of any polling data being released. So he could be up double digits right now for all I know. I just kind of assume that isn't true, but based mostly just on the other rankings people have released that contradict where Stu has this. Hence my disagreement based on very incomplete info.

[Rex Anderson]

In your opinion, is this still a safe seat? I've heard rumblings of republicans actually voting for the Demcandidate due to ill feelings toward Lamborn.

Since Hefley usually received well over 60% in this district, hopefully that won't matter.

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

As far as I can tell, the Republicans in 2002 removed the parts of the district that voted against Shaw in 2000, namely the Miami-Dade portion. The territory should be much more favorable to Shaw than when he had close races.

[Torie]

Yes, they did, but the Shaw district still went for Kerry by about 5%. It went for Gore, in the current lines, by about 8%.

[RippyO]

I'm surprised he's lasted as long as he did. Any more tweaking and his district would be out in the Atlantic.

Klein is a serious candidate, unlike the last two Dems to face Shaw. I wonder if the prospect of him chairing Ways & Means would have significant weight on the election.