People may be freaked out that Kaine carried VA-02. Iraq and general anti-incumbent sentiment. don't know. I think that one is a little high on his list of vulnerability.
The Kaine thing as a benchmark has not much traction for me. The GOP candidate in that race would not appeal, and did not appeal, to the Norfolk area. And Drake's district is in or adjacent to navy land. I have to wonder if Iraq has as much traction there, as say it does, in Greenwich, a rather prosperous little town in Shays district. :)