Posted on 08/29/2006 8:13:30 AM PDT by icwhatudo
This is a great interactive election map showing which seats are safe, which are leaners, which voted for Bush vs Kerry, etc etc.
Pretty amazing how we went from the dems winning both house and senate, to at least the house, to now maybe neither-at least according to the NYTimes latest predictions.
http://www.nytimes.com/ref/washington/2006ELECTIONGUIDE.html?currentDataSet=senANALYSIS
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
In addition to Jay Johnson's fluke win in '96, it also sent one of the two last Catholic Priests to serve in Congress, the very liberal Rep. Fr. Robert Cornell, who served 2 terms from 1975-79 (he knocked off a freshman Republican in the Watergate landslide, but lost running for a 3rd term to Toby Roth). Prior to that, it had last elected a Democrat in 1942, LaVern Dilweg, who served a single term before losing to longtime Rep. John Byrnes. The problem with the 8th is that it is only competitive when the incumbent leaves, so it isn't out of the question a 'Rat could win it, but lasting longer than a single term isn't likely.
David Donald, in his 1999 biography of Lincoln, explained that in Lincoln's day, it was very common, almost the rule, for a man to serve a single term in the House. The People knew what they were doing and turned over their House seats about as often as they turned their mattresses, and for pretty much the same reason.
Not when you consider all the people around here last year talking about a 60 seat filibuster-proof Republican Senate. The long and short is that the Democrats will undoubtably pick up seats in both houses and that pleases me not at all. The fact that it could be worse is little comfort.
They have it as GOP 219 Solid or leaning mate. 192 Safe and 27 leaning. thanks mate.
It varied a bit. I presume you're talking about the time Lincoln served a single term in the House as a Whig from 1847-49. In the case of Lincoln's IL colleagues at the time, he served about the shortest. Only his seatmate in the adjacent 6th district served a single term, while the other 5 House members served 3 consecutive terms (Robert Smith & Orlando Ficklin), 4 terms (John McClernand), and 5 terms (William Richardson -- though he'd serve an additional term later on, in addition to a brief term in the Senate).
Really long House service from that state (longer than 10 years) didn't start until Elihu Washburne, who began his service in 1853 and served 9 consecutive terms until his resignation in 1869. I tended to observe that it wasn't until the latter part of the 19th century when long Congressional service became more usual (although that varied from state to state). It was serving many many terms that allowed Southern Democrats to dominate the Chairmanships of committees in the 20th century, as many Dems from northern states (such as NY) often only served far shorter terms. Following Watergate was when the liberals from these states tossed out a strict seniority system.
Right Pro, Siena Research poll for 8/24 NY 20th has Sweeney(R) leading DEM Gildenbrand 54% to 35%, and she is top tier for the Rats. She has a lot of $$$$ also.
LS!!! My main man, my Solid GOP Confident Rock. how are ya buddy?? Good to see one of the TRUE GOP faithful here who does not wilt to the Bogus Summer Internal polling crap. Novak , Sabato, and the other Beltway goons are all posting a Phony war trying to sell their columns. God Bless LS
Hostile because the GOP incumbent in 1996 Gunderson retired and was GAY like Jim Kolbe. Johnson won due to GOP infighting, and then Green kicked his butt.
I checked out Micheal Barone's Political Almanac from 2000 where Charlie Cook was a guest Predictor of Congressional races. He predicted in the 2000 cycle that David Minge(D) of MINN-2 and Sam Gunderson(D) of CONN-2 were both SAFE locks for Reelection in 2000. They both lost to Mark Kennedy and Rob Simmons in Blue states that voted big for Al Gore. It shows that House Contests are local. These GOP pickups saved the House for the GOP.
Steve Gundersen represented the 3rd district which paralelled the Minnesota border. He retired and was replaced by Ron Kind, a Democrat.
I had completely forgotten that someone had served in the WI-08 between Toby Roth and Mark Green.
Chafee is the only Republican clearly on my endangered list. But recently, his opponent has been making some blunders, so he may recover.
I still think we will eek out MN and either NJ or MD.
My bad sorry mate. But it still caused a DEM pickup.
I don't do this out of optimism, but out of a track record: I was the ONLY person of all the prognosticators to have Allard winning in 2002, when I picked every single close race except Thune vs. Johnson (500 votes); and in 2004, I picked every single close race except CO, plus had Bush's electoral total dead on except for PA---so I missed by one state.
Chess great point. The media starts to move away from the Summer Phony wars and becomes realistic.
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