Great Election Map: House and Senate, Safe vs Leaners

New York Times ^ | 8-29-06 | staff

[icwhatudo]

This is a great interactive election map showing which seats are safe, which are leaners, which voted for Bush vs Kerry, etc etc.

Pretty amazing how we went from the dems winning both house and senate, to at least the house, to now maybe neither-at least according to the NYTimes latest predictions.

http://www.nytimes.com/ref/washington/2006ELECTIONGUIDE.html?currentDataSet=senANALYSIS

[Darkwolf377]

Thanks for that info. I certaily don't suspect the NYT of spinning the data to show Republicans in the lead, so based on your evidence, I suspect more seats are similarly locked-up but the NYT doesn't want to make things look too bad for their side.

It would be interesting to check out RealClear and see if they have similar maps over the last few months. I'd be interested in seeing if Barone's assessment--which i agree with--that the UK plot has tilted things toward the R's is correct. If true, it looks awfully grim for the Dems. All they can say is that the Republicans win elections through fear, but in a world this scary, I'd turn it around and say Democrats just don't get it--we DO have a lot to fear, their Neville Chamberlainism notwithstanding.

[Coop]

Ya know, I understand listing PA-12 as "Leans Dem." That makes sense to me given Murtha's incumbency, the significant D voter registration advantage and it's VERY slight favoring of Kerry (51%) over Bush (48%).

But safe Dem?!? ROTFLMAO!!!! There are going to be some stunned "political pundits" as we get closer to Election Day. But I'm not complaining. The longer Diana Irey is under the radar, raising $$$$ and collecting almost one thousand volunteers, the better!

If you've been considering supporting Mrs. Irey and/or Boot Murtha, but wondering if Murtha could really lose - TRUST ME! :-) Take the plunge!

[colorado tanker]

Thanks for the ping, Rob. Great map. It's just unbelievable the NYT is calling the House for the GOP and the Senate as close, but very difficult for the Dems to win. The tide must really have turned if they're throwing in the towel!

[boughtwithaprice]

Poor NY...a "safe" Democrat state that will re-elect Hillary. Come on, NY conservatives, get out there and vote against her! I definitely will.

[jazusamo]

>>But safe Dem?!? ROTFLMAO!!!! There are going to be some stunned "political pundits" as we get closer to Election Day.<<

It is pretty laughable. The NY Slimes seems to be a lot more confident than Murtha and his campaign staff that they've got a lock on it.

I think Diana Irey has them scared spitless, why else would they be beating the bushes for Dem support. Dems holding office are avoiding him so Murtha brings in has beens like Cleland.

More and more people are supporting Diana Irey because those people know what's best for the 12th District of PA, our country and our troops.

http://www.irey.com/
http://www.bootmurtha.com/
http://vets4irey.com/

[Coop]

And has-beens like former Speaker of the House Jim Wright.

[musikman]

There is a tab for the House Races map

[1Old Pro]

I can tell you that even Charles Cook, the cook report has the 20th as "lean" republican. I suspect that they simply don't undertand these races and with limited staff are making educated guesses but will be proven way wrong.

I think these pundits are either inept or fraudulent.

[Darkwolf377]

Or Democrats. Oh, wait, you already said "inept or fraudulent".

[napscoordinator]

I noticed that too! I was disappointed with that.

[jamese777]

Unless one party has 60 votes to break cloture votes in the Senate, federal politics tends to stay in the center. The chance of either party having a veto proof Senate is nil.

[AmishDude]

I keep replying to you but I want my prediction to be loud and clear: +1 R in the Senate (I count RI as a wash whether Chafee or the D wins).

[lentulusgracchus]

The Dems and the media are falsely crowing that they will retake the house and senate for ONE reason, it helps them fundraise.

Good point.

So they're lying to themselves now........won't be long, kids. We might actually see the 'Rat Party come apart in our lifetimes, split up into a new, more conservative-to-centrist pro-labor party and a big factionette, a nearly-a-party (like George Wallace's AIP), of really Red lesbo-Marxist ankle-biters.

[1Old Pro]

The Party is fractious, it's the far left anti-american deaniacs vs. the big government liberals fighting for control.

[ClaireSolt]

Fred Barnes on Beltway Boys said McGavick down 5% in WA is R best chance for a pick up. We could win in WA, if we can get them to just count the votes once.

[ClaireSolt]

Do Irey supporters also support Santorum?

[ClaireSolt]

Remember that election season is like the Christmas shoppiing season for media. They will hype the horserace to the end to maximize their take for political ads.

[4yearlurker]

I DO! My family and I will also vote for Swan,although his campaign seems nonexistent. The only Democrat I ever voted for was Frank Mascara for congress. He is a descent guy who "gets it." Frank lost to Fat Jack when they redistricted. Since it was Dems only I could not vote for him against Murtha.

[jazusamo]

I can't speak for Irey supporters as far as Santorum goes. I live in Washington state and support Diana Irey because of her conservative stance on many things and my intense dislike of Murtha and his fake support of our military.

[Once-Ler]

In 96 the rats and the media said they were going to take back the Congress. They repeated the lie in 98,00,02, and 04.