Posted on 08/28/2006 8:56:25 PM PDT by Rawlings
I was, and am, right when six months ago I said the GOP would not only not lose seats, but would GAIN at least one in the Senate and one to five in the House.
Burns, Talent, Santorum will win. Kean and either Kennedy or McGavick or Steele will win. Net gain in the Senate=1.
+1 to +3 in the House. It would have been more if not for the DeLay screw up.
# or more pickups in the Senate? Almost impossible. We'd have to hold all our seats and pick up 3 out of 4 in MD,NJ,WA,MI, all blue states.
I'm at breakeven to pick up One.
+5? That would be a clean sweep of NJ, MI, MN, MD, and WA (all blue states) plus Burns and Chafee hanging on.
Imagine if the GOP had recruited well then (WI,ND,NM,WV,FL) might have been in play.
Don't be so sure it can't happen. As often occurs the elections are won in tides. By that I mean most house races will break one way. Increasingly it looks to be the GOP's way. The Senate is a little more fickle but I'm not very concerned about it. (And after all, we 60 seats for a real majority and that won't happen this year.)
You mentioned something else that has not been mention - here - and may play a part. Gas prices are going down! They are not nearly as low as this time last year, but 25 cents is 25 cents. And what if they go down nationwide another 30-40 by November? Would that not be good news for the Pubbies?
I think we have more to fear from losing hardcore conservative voters than we do squishy RINO voters. I see no evidence of RINO's suddenly backing Dems on Iran if they haven't been turned off to the Administration already, but I've read a LOT of conservative displeasure with Bush here, including calls to "teach them a lesson". We can't blame RINos and Dems for every single thing when we have some conservatives actively pushing to "teach them a lesson" this fall.
I don't know, but I hardly think gas prices "only" being higher than they were this time last year isn't much of a plus.
the winds against the republicans was nothing but mainstream media hot air...
It's way too early, but the recent generic ballot of likely voters -- buried by the MSM -- showed a tie between the GOP and the RATS, which is a huge movement, if it holds.
Gas prices are heading down and will drop further. That's very good for the GOP.
The economy is holding up, notwithstanding the slowdown in housing. That is good for the GOP.
The wild card is getting Iraq calmed down, and the MSM will do everything in its power to help the RATS. Nasty "October surprises" are coming, none of them favorable to the GOP.
Yah, that's why I said they should be kicking themselves about ND, WV, and FL especially, which were winnable.
I have a bad feeling that some terrorist attack or some other extraneous thing will motivate them before election day.
for example this is the spin the NY times is trying to put on Iraq now:
Iraqi Death Toll Rose Above 3,400 in July By EDWARD WONG and DAMIEN CAVE Published: August 15, 2006 July appears to have been the deadliest month of the war for Iraqi civilians, reinforcing criticism of a new Baghdad security plan.
But this is the story the times wants to bury:
By ROBERT BURNS AP Military Writer WASHINGTON Aug 25, 2006 (AP)— The death toll among National Guard and Reserve troops in Iraq has plunged this year as citizen soldiers play a smaller combat role against an insurgency that increasingly targets Iraqis. Thus far in August, five members of the Guard and Reserve have died in Iraq, compared with 44 at this point in August 2005, the deadliest month of the war for the Guard and Reserve. The number of Guard and Reserve deaths for the year totals 54 less than one-third of the 189 recorded at this point last year. In the comparable period in 2004, the death toll was 92, according to Defense Department casualty records.
this is why the democrats want us out of Iraq so badly now, if we stay much longer it will become clearer and cleareer that we are WINNING!
What needs to be driven home is that the Lamont win signals the death of the Democrat Party, now the Soros Party. America must be told who they're really voting for if they vote Democrat.
"I think we have more to fear from losing hardcore conservative voters than we do squishy RINO voters."
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All indications seem to be that the Pubs figure they have the hard core conservatives no matter what. Why else do they seem so willing to move to left of center.
My point is, the only people who've said they may not vote for the Republicans this year are hardcore conservatives who see the R's as moving left. I haven't read similar thoughts about RINOs voting for Dems, or at least no more than usual.
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