It's way too early, but the recent generic ballot of likely voters -- buried by the MSM -- showed a tie between the GOP and the RATS, which is a huge movement, if it holds.
Gas prices are heading down and will drop further. That's very good for the GOP.
The economy is holding up, notwithstanding the slowdown in housing. That is good for the GOP.
The wild card is getting Iraq calmed down, and the MSM will do everything in its power to help the RATS. Nasty "October surprises" are coming, none of them favorable to the GOP.
for example this is the spin the NY times is trying to put on Iraq now:
Iraqi Death Toll Rose Above 3,400 in July By EDWARD WONG and DAMIEN CAVE Published: August 15, 2006 July appears to have been the deadliest month of the war for Iraqi civilians, reinforcing criticism of a new Baghdad security plan.
But this is the story the times wants to bury:
By ROBERT BURNS AP Military Writer WASHINGTON Aug 25, 2006 (AP)— The death toll among National Guard and Reserve troops in Iraq has plunged this year as citizen soldiers play a smaller combat role against an insurgency that increasingly targets Iraqis. Thus far in August, five members of the Guard and Reserve have died in Iraq, compared with 44 at this point in August 2005, the deadliest month of the war for the Guard and Reserve. The number of Guard and Reserve deaths for the year totals 54 less than one-third of the 189 recorded at this point last year. In the comparable period in 2004, the death toll was 92, according to Defense Department casualty records.
this is why the democrats want us out of Iraq so badly now, if we stay much longer it will become clearer and cleareer that we are WINNING!