[dirtboy]

The center is not well defined on high-resolution visible images and synoptic surface observations from Cuba show little evidence of a center.

No kidding. If they can't detect a surface circulation over Cuba, there can't be much of one left.

A mid-level high over the southeastern U.S. Is forecast to shift east-southeastward over the next couple of days as a trough moves in from the lower Mississippi Valley.

And that's the mechanism they are forecasting to move this more westward.

Some of the track guidance such as the GFS have shifted slightly westward while others have changed little since the previous run.

Well, the eastward-shifting trend has now halted. It will be quite interesting to see the forecast track 12 hours from now.

[bwteim]

See gfdl 2006082812-ernesto05l Forecast slp Java Animation model

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2006082812-ernesto05l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[MikefromOhio]

Well if you take all of the guidance before last night, which placed it on the west coast of Florida, and then all of the guidance up until now, which put it on the east coast of Florida, it only makes sense that the track would be somewhere in the middle....

In the artillery, we called that bracketing :)