TS/Hurricane/TS Ernesto

NWS/NHC ^ | 28 August 2006 | NHC

[NautiNurse]

Florida Governor Jeb Bush ordered a state of emergency in advance of Ernesto's anticipated Florida landfall as a hurricane. During his press briefing, Governor Bush emphasized the need to, "Have your family plan in place. Be prepared to be on your own for 72 hours. I know it sounds like a broken record." Jeb then repeated his message in Spanish.

All of the South Florida peninsula and Keys are under a hurricane watch, and portions of the watch areas may be upgraded to hurricane warnings later today.

NASA is moving Space Shuttle Atlantis from the launch pad back to its protective hangar, with the launch postponed until at least Sept. 7-8.

Hurricane Ernesto was downgraded to Tropical Storm status after battering Haiti and the Dominican Republic all day Sunday. The death toll in Haiti from Ernesto currently stands at 1 person; storm reports from Hispaniola are scarce this morning.

Ernesto has approached the eastern portion of Cuba, where the government issued a hurricane warning for six provinces, tourists were evacuated, and baseball games were played earlier Sunday than originally scheduled.

Public Advisories Updated every three hours.

Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours

Three Day Tracking Map

Ernesto Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 3 & 5 day forecast tracks

Buoy Data Florida & Eastern GOM

Hurricane Model Tracks

Storm Surge graphic

Satellite Images

Visible Satellite Still Image

IR Image

WV Image

Additional Resources:

Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Tropical Storm Ernesto I

Hurricane Ernesto

[PogySailor]

Compare to TS John in the Pacific.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-avn.html

Nothing that I can see in Ernesto looks anything like a closed circulation.

[dirtboy]

There's a term for that, "wishcasting."

I think there is a sense of adventure in dealing with bad weather. But I've learned that sooner or later it will come to you, no wishing required. And best to pray it goes away so that people who really aren't interested in an adventure don't get one.

[PogySailor]

After the 2004 triple header (Charile, Francis, Jeanne), I never want another one of these things to come close to me. Even a weak Cat 1 knocked power out for 3 days. I can't inagine going for weeks without A/C in September here.

[don'tbedenied]

"given how much the Dems have played politics with hurricanes nowadays, I really can't blame the NHC for being ultra-careful in waiting to make sure "

I agree 100%. I'm glad someone else said it, I was afraid I was becoming a tin foil hat guy. The NHC has been totally wrong and always have erred on overestimating this storm. It appears to be cover your ass instead of straight up forecasting. Too damn bad, reputations are lost quickly in the Internet age.

[AFPhys]

I understand that to some degree, but really, not a single other model has gotten close to missing the intensity at all compared to how poorly SHIPS has functioned. And it seems to have cost FReeper "raygun" his spot here, too, because he was nearly alone in stating two days ago how badly it was doing, and his adamant statements somehow led to trouble.

It almost appears to me that the way the SHIPS works is to take the worst possible path the hurricane might take in the 1-2-3 cone, and calculate the worst possible intensity. IOW,it's intensity calculations appear to be totally devoid of the BEST expectation of position, and it therefore greatly suffers in comparison with other models that seem to at least attempt to take the position into account.

[NautiNurse]

Awe inspiring to see those water spouts. Saw my first one many years ago during takeoff at the Key West airport. A serious adrenaline rush.

[Dog Gone]

I saw a funny one the other day that posted that Houston was far enough from the coast to take any storm and should never be evacuated. He/she said something like everyone just needed to stay in the house.

Well, the answer to that is if you don't evacuate southeast Houston, you may die. Whether you want to evacuate from other parts depends entirely on storm intensity. I probably live in the safest part of Houston, elevation maybe 100 ft above sea level. Storm surge won't affect me.

Cat 4 or 5 winds will. They'll at least rip my roof off and maybe level the walls.

So the people who say Houston doesn't need an evacuation plan are just wrong. Even those of us on the "safe side" aren't far enough from a hurricane aimed down our throat.

[dirtboy]

I almost feel like I'm channeling the spirt world on this thread:

"WHERE'S the closed circulation?!??"

[PogySailor]

I heard one of the Tampa media dimbulbs grumbling about how "they've scared people all over the Gulf coast" this afternoon. Implying that the NHC was doing this for no reason. I fully expect some Dem to start a meme that the NHC was giving FL more warning than the "poor people of N.O. that were left to die by the thousands". Because of Jeb.

They've said as much before.

[gov_bean_ counter]

I posted this last night and feel evenly more strongly today...

I am sitting under my cone of silence, inside a copper wire cage wearing a tin foil hat...

I am not willing to submit that the people at the NHC have the most honorable of intentions and are not operating with a political agenda. And I am not willing to concede that we were getting honest information about the status of the storm.

A cone pointed at NO on the anniversary of Katrina. That was just too cute.

Hat has come off. Now I'm putting on my flame retardant suit.

[4CJ]

That ol' cripple Ff-150 sure had some crazy notions, like rebuking storms and other nonsense, now didn't he.

Taught me a thing or two! Besides, our Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ, rebuked storms. Ff--150 did too!

[visualops]

pulled a Nagin

I thinked you've just coined a phrase, my FRiend!

Along those lines, my Dad (with my Mom) drove back to Beaufort, SC from Washington DC as Hurricane Floyd approached. As my mother put it "everyone was driving the other way". My Dad insisted on returning to "batten down the hatches" since they hadn't secured the house before going up to visit my sister. He's one of those people who thinks all the news is exaggerated, and after weathering Hugo I suppose he thought they were indestructible.

[dirtboy]

I am not willing to submit that the people at the NHC have the most honorable of intentions and are not operating with a political agenda.

I disagree. If anything, they are being ultra-cautious to make sure no one get surprised by a hurricane, given the fact that Nagin and Blanco got 60 hours notice last year and blew about 40 hours of it.

[CindyDawg]

Lived there. I know. That's why I laughed.

[gov_bean_ counter]

Time to change a tagline.

[dirtboy]

I thinked you've just coined a phrase, my FRiend!

Yeah, I think that should end up as an entry in Websters for "being oblivious to the fact that you should be getting your arse out of harm's way about now."

[1COUNTER-MORTER-68]

My Granpa was IN Houston in 1900,,The Story Has Been Passed Down Through The Family,,,Ain't Happy !!

[nwctwx]

that is quite interesting, I may have to repost it elsewhere. ;)

[gov_bean_ counter]

You are probably right. I have just developed an incredibly cynical streak over the past few years. I mean, if professionals at the CIA, NSA and FBI can play politics with our national security, then fudging a hurricane landfall is easy.

[dirtboy]

The 11 PM advisory still isn't up. They usually have it up by now. I wonder if they are running magnifying glasses over the sat photos, looking for ANYTHING resembling a circulation. And I wouldn't blame them for doing such, with the prospect of Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi second-guessing them with the lethal combination of 20-20 hindsight and Democratic ignorance.