"WHERE'S the closed circulation?!??"
Posted on 08/28/2006 7:27:21 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Compare to TS John in the Pacific.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-avn.html
Nothing that I can see in Ernesto looks anything like a closed circulation.
I think there is a sense of adventure in dealing with bad weather. But I've learned that sooner or later it will come to you, no wishing required. And best to pray it goes away so that people who really aren't interested in an adventure don't get one.
After the 2004 triple header (Charile, Francis, Jeanne), I never want another one of these things to come close to me. Even a weak Cat 1 knocked power out for 3 days. I can't inagine going for weeks without A/C in September here.
I understand that to some degree, but really, not a single other model has gotten close to missing the intensity at all compared to how poorly SHIPS has functioned. And it seems to have cost FReeper "raygun" his spot here, too, because he was nearly alone in stating two days ago how badly it was doing, and his adamant statements somehow led to trouble.
It almost appears to me that the way the SHIPS works is to take the worst possible path the hurricane might take in the 1-2-3 cone, and calculate the worst possible intensity. IOW,it's intensity calculations appear to be totally devoid of the BEST expectation of position, and it therefore greatly suffers in comparison with other models that seem to at least attempt to take the position into account.
Awe inspiring to see those water spouts. Saw my first one many years ago during takeoff at the Key West airport. A serious adrenaline rush.
Well, the answer to that is if you don't evacuate southeast Houston, you may die. Whether you want to evacuate from other parts depends entirely on storm intensity. I probably live in the safest part of Houston, elevation maybe 100 ft above sea level. Storm surge won't affect me.
Cat 4 or 5 winds will. They'll at least rip my roof off and maybe level the walls.
So the people who say Houston doesn't need an evacuation plan are just wrong. Even those of us on the "safe side" aren't far enough from a hurricane aimed down our throat.
"WHERE'S the closed circulation?!??"
I heard one of the Tampa media dimbulbs grumbling about how "they've scared people all over the Gulf coast" this afternoon. Implying that the NHC was doing this for no reason. I fully expect some Dem to start a meme that the NHC was giving FL more warning than the "poor people of N.O. that were left to die by the thousands". Because of Jeb.
They've said as much before.
I am sitting under my cone of silence, inside a copper wire cage wearing a tin foil hat...
I am not willing to submit that the people at the NHC have the most honorable of intentions and are not operating with a political agenda. And I am not willing to concede that we were getting honest information about the status of the storm.
A cone pointed at NO on the anniversary of Katrina. That was just too cute.
Hat has come off. Now I'm putting on my flame retardant suit.
Taught me a thing or two! Besides, our Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ, rebuked storms. Ff--150 did too!
I disagree. If anything, they are being ultra-cautious to make sure no one get surprised by a hurricane, given the fact that Nagin and Blanco got 60 hours notice last year and blew about 40 hours of it.
Lived there. I know. That's why I laughed.
Time to change a tagline.
Yeah, I think that should end up as an entry in Websters for "being oblivious to the fact that you should be getting your arse out of harm's way about now."
My Granpa was IN Houston in 1900,,The Story Has Been Passed Down Through The Family,,,Ain't Happy !!
that is quite interesting, I may have to repost it elsewhere. ;)
The 11 PM advisory still isn't up. They usually have it up by now. I wonder if they are running magnifying glasses over the sat photos, looking for ANYTHING resembling a circulation. And I wouldn't blame them for doing such, with the prospect of Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi second-guessing them with the lethal combination of 20-20 hindsight and Democratic ignorance.
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