TS/Hurricane/TS Ernesto

NWS/NHC ^ | 28 August 2006 | NHC

[NautiNurse]

Florida Governor Jeb Bush ordered a state of emergency in advance of Ernesto's anticipated Florida landfall as a hurricane. During his press briefing, Governor Bush emphasized the need to, "Have your family plan in place. Be prepared to be on your own for 72 hours. I know it sounds like a broken record." Jeb then repeated his message in Spanish.

All of the South Florida peninsula and Keys are under a hurricane watch, and portions of the watch areas may be upgraded to hurricane warnings later today.

NASA is moving Space Shuttle Atlantis from the launch pad back to its protective hangar, with the launch postponed until at least Sept. 7-8.

Hurricane Ernesto was downgraded to Tropical Storm status after battering Haiti and the Dominican Republic all day Sunday. The death toll in Haiti from Ernesto currently stands at 1 person; storm reports from Hispaniola are scarce this morning.

Ernesto has approached the eastern portion of Cuba, where the government issued a hurricane warning for six provinces, tourists were evacuated, and baseball games were played earlier Sunday than originally scheduled.

Public Advisories Updated every three hours.

Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours

Three Day Tracking Map

Ernesto Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 3 & 5 day forecast tracks

Buoy Data Florida & Eastern GOM

Hurricane Model Tracks

Storm Surge graphic

Satellite Images

Visible Satellite Still Image

IR Image

WV Image

Additional Resources:

Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Tropical Storm Ernesto I

Hurricane Ernesto

[dirtboy]

That's a great loop - very current.

I see two smallish thunderstorms left around the center. Nothing remotely resembling a CDO. No banding whatsoever. No organization. I guess we'll see in just over an hour what the NHC thinks now.

[dirtboy]

Here's to hoping that big fat upper low NW of it chews on it for awhile.

[1COUNTER-MORTER-68]

Here Comes The Train.

[shield]

I think this one and Chris have reminded us, after last year, that these things are pretty darn hard to forecast.

Typical season typical storms...yes, they sure are.

[hipaatwo]

Does the center look to be over water?

[dirtboy]

I can't even see a center. Here is a sat photo of Chris when it was a 40mph tropical storm that had just been stripped of its convection:

You can still clearly see the surface circulation,even with all the convection gone. I simply don't see anything like that here.

[Dog Gone]

It certainly has a chance of becoming Florence. It doesn't look too far north at the moment.

[dirtboy]

Speaking of Chris, see post #486 to see what it looked like as a 40mph fading tropical storm stripped of its convection.

[RDTF]

yep

[hipaatwo]

I see nothing either. I hope it just fades away. We need rain up here but I have family and friends in Florida and North Carolina, right in the bullseye of the path the NHC has.

[dirtboy]

Since we're looking at infrared now for Ernesto, here is what Chris looked like on infrared when it was downgraded to a depression north of Puerto Rico. You can still see banding and signs of a circulation.

[1COUNTER-MORTER-68]

Gunna be lots of RED SPOTS all the way back to Africa.

[tutstar]

What do you think after looking at this? just curious, I'm just armchair weather watcher. LOL

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

[dirtboy]

The link didn't work.

[SouthTexas]

Worked for me, thanks!

[dirtboy]

From the forum you linked to earlier: Ernesto II

Watching the parade of weenies trying desperately to get the center (if there is one) of this thunderstorm cluster off the coast is a riot.

This entire thread is a joke.

[dirtboy]

Gawd, that forum can get as bad as DU - check out this post:

I am hoping he shoots the Gap and gets into the GOM.

Hoping? HOPING? To see what? Another friggin' Cat 5 that kills people and causes billions of dollars in damage and jacks the price of gas up again? You didn't get enough of that morbid entertainment last year?

Woof. Sane people hope Ernesto is dead and stays that way.

[CindyDawg]

Last year some very serious "forecaster" posted a map and a freeper came on and said it was "pretty". There was an internet "silence" I though of that when I looked at your link. I had not seen that one before. Very interesting and "pretty" (grin)

[dirtboy]

I think my browser is set wrong to see the images. I tried to navagate to it and got the same problem, but the thumbs looked major cool. I'll have to work on getting those loaded.

[nwctwx]

The center was pretty much shredded by Hispaniola (as I mentioned last night), then it spent way too much time over Cuba today.

Chris was doing fine until a pesky trough dropped in and knocked all the convection off to the south and east of the system. That shot there is not that long after the center was fully exposed. It shows that if the convection hadn't been displaced, you had a healthy system.

I'm having a hard time believing that Ernesto is still a tropical storm at this point. I think the 8pm intermediate just held the status in case it managed to pop back out over water. If it's still a tropical storm at 11pm I would be surprised.