TS/Hurricane/TS Ernesto

NWS/NHC ^ | 28 August 2006 | NHC

[sig226]

I wish I had shot that picture. It lasted about four minutes - three traffic lights and then I pulled over to see it. When it dispersed, it had a wide funnel at the top. I was about two miles further away than the photographer, it was easy to see it.

[STARWISE]

Glad it went bye-bye.

[1COUNTER-MORTER-68]

LOL I'm Stickin' To My First One,,,,DamnFINO ;0)

[Dane]

Latest tracking image. Looks like Ernesto will be a traopical storm when it hits and moves through Flroida and then a cat 1 Hurricane when it Charleston, SC.

[dirtboy]

But we have narrowed down what country it's going to hit next.... haven't we? ;-}

So far we've ruled out Antarctica and Australia. South America and Africa still seem to be in play.

[Ingtar]

That model appears to have a smidgen. But that's just one model of a bunch;)

Oh bother!

[roostercogburn]

I think this thing is gonna get a little closer to the west coast of Fl more than folks were thinking just hours ago.

[b4its2late]

It's probably going to sit and spin a couple days over DelMarVa peninsula.

[dirtboy]

The infrared images now show the convection around the alleged center to be dying down - it was almost more like normal summer tropical thunderstorm blowups. And it's still very difficult to see any circulation, except for perhaps a very broad-based circulation, but not close in.

[dirtboy]

I wouldn't put too much into that Charleston forecast, Dane. 36 hours ago the track was for a Cat 3 to hit just north of Tampa Bay.

[1COUNTER-MORTER-68]

I Still Have My Weather Rock Out,,,,?

[shield]

it was almost more like normal summer tropical thunderstorm blowups.

Exactly...when the sun goes down so do the thunderstorms.

What I've been trying to figure out is: since recon can't go into Cuban airspace...how reliable is that last update from the NHC?

[Fawn]

That would mean the strong winds come from the north.....which is a problem for the only window I can't shutter.....figures.

[Fawn]

I didn't hear anything about it on the news! Nice picture.

[hipaatwo]

From this satellite it looks like there's hardly anything left of it.


http://www.intellicast.com/IcastPage/LoadPage.aspx?loc=usa&seg=StormCenter&prodgrp=FloaterImagery&product=Float5Loop&prodnav=none&pid=none

[dirtboy]

I dunno. The 5pm discussion said folks on the ground in Cuba couldn't detect a circulation from ground instruments. I'ts not very difficult to note wind direction across 200 miles of the east end of the island to find one if it's there.

I'd tend to give that more credence than a plane flying along the coast outside Cuban airspace. But I think the NHC is being cautious in assuming there is still a circulation there that can regenerate. And there well could be, maybe at mid-levels. But a mid-level circulation is not a depression, let alone a tropical storm.

[RDTF]

don't want to get ya excited but we may have Florence here:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn.jpg

[nwctwx]

There's a reason my first posts on the storm today came within the last hour or so. ;-)

It's been an interesting storm to track... I think this one and Chris have reminded us, after last year, that these things are pretty darn hard to forecast.

[Howlin]

I will HIT you, friend!

[RDTF]

lol!!