TS/Hurricane/TS Ernesto

NWS/NHC ^ | 28 August 2006 | NHC

[dirtboy]

Of course I will prepare like a direct hit is guaranteed.

Very wise. Ernesto could well end up tracking just off the Florida coast. But if it was on that track and made a sudden left turn, it could be on top of the coast in a few hours.

[twin2]

Well down here we prepare for something and hope for nothing.

Most of the mets are concerned that it has the potential to intensify, and that's what we have to prepare for.

[NautiNurse]

Thanks for checking in from FLL. Please provide local updates when you can.

[bwteim]

For some it's like waving a red flag in front of a bull. People confuse message and messenger, IMHO.

But, let me get back on *On Topic

*(before RDTF sends a seriously low pressure area over my 'puter... )
[grinning]


If you have interests in the Islands you can go to
http://www.stormcarib.com/

you can select from "Latest local updates from the special hurricane correspondents on the islands"

[NautiNurse]

1100 Advisory Update:
A Hurricane Watch is now in effect from New Smyrna Beach southward
on the Florida East Coast...

On/Off Hurricane Ping list, mash ---> .

[synbad600]

If it stays on track, even with minimum winds I bet we lose power. That will suck.

[bwteim]

Looking much better for the west coast of Florida now. Two days ago I was "predicting" a Cat 3 in the Panhandle based on the cone then.

Even with all of the computer modeling, processing, analyses, experts, data sampling and so on, these phenomena are still rather unpredictable more than two or three days out, it seems.

[shield]

I've been watching little ole' Joe for several yrs. In the beginning, I thought he was the best around. After a number of major predictions proved to be absolutely wrong...I found him to be more like a bad fortune teller...lots of stoking it up...

Last yr with Rita he said Galveston would be destroyed. And that's just one of them...there are many more.

[grwcfl537]

1100 Advisory Update:

If you look at the floater sat loop, tropical forecast points move toward the Bahamas, no Florida landfall.

Mel

[Hatteras]

"...In other words, it'll not even hit the USA..."

[Blogger]

It's going to reach Cane status over land??? Isn't that unusual?

[shield]

Wait and see...

[NautiNurse]

Have the tolls been suspended yet?

Good question--and I don't know. However, I did find a very interesting site with vehicle traffic count--many locations in So FL have hourly figures. The Key Largo table indicates merely average traffic southbound and northbound into/out of the Keys since yesterday, with a slight increase in northbound traffic the past couple of hours.

[Dog Gone]

I also imagine Ernesto will be downgraded to a depression by the 2pm intermediate advisory. I think they were being generous in keeping it a TS for this one.

I'd wager you're correct.

And while it might regain Category 1 status before coming onto the Florida peninsula, this isn't nearly the storm that it could have become.

We are very fortunate to get off this easy. Late last week it looked very likely that this storm would shoot the Yucatan Channel and impact Texas or Louisiana as at least a Category 3 storm, probably more.

A category 1 storm in Florida is more of a photo-op for tv reporters than a life threatening event. I'm not dismissing the hassle for Florida residents. A Category 1 is nothing to ignore. But it could have been much, much worse.

What it does when it emerges over the Gulf Stream remains to be seen. It's possible the Carolinas could be battered harder than Florida will be.

[NautiNurse]

Yer welcome.

[bwteim]

Gosh, "traffic count" brings back memories from last year with links to Ms, La, Ala state sites. Still does not seem like one year ago, NN. Seems much fresher to me - and it has nothing to do with the present commemorative coverage.

[dirtboy]

It's going to reach Cane status over land??? Isn't that unusual?

I imagine they are forecasting it to reach hurricane status right at landfall, just like Katrina did when it hit Florida.

[SE Mom]

Even here in Central Florida where it's supposed to come through I'm expecting nothing more than a normal summer storm..thunder, lightning and some wind.

OT: Eeewww...just turned on FOX and hear KuckooKofi making a speech ......

[NonValueAdded]

Checking in ... half the models have it coming to casa NVA, the other half to my evac location. If I split the difference and visit the Mouse House, it will probably go there like Charlie. Sigh. Time to do the 72 hour drill.

[IYAAYAS]

After Katrina made landfall over Broward county as a "weak" category 1 last year I remember thinking "weak hurricane" is the ultimate oxymoron.