Look out South Carolina?
Posted on 08/28/2006 7:27:21 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Florida Governor Jeb Bush ordered a state of emergency in advance of Ernesto's anticipated Florida landfall as a hurricane. During his press briefing, Governor Bush emphasized the need to, "Have your family plan in place. Be prepared to be on your own for 72 hours. I know it sounds like a broken record." Jeb then repeated his message in Spanish.
All of the South Florida peninsula and Keys are under a hurricane watch, and portions of the watch areas may be upgraded to hurricane warnings later today.
NASA is moving Space Shuttle Atlantis from the launch pad back to its protective hangar, with the launch postponed until at least Sept. 7-8.
Hurricane Ernesto was downgraded to Tropical Storm status after battering Haiti and the Dominican Republic all day Sunday. The death toll in Haiti from Ernesto currently stands at 1 person; storm reports from Hispaniola are scarce this morning.
Ernesto has approached the eastern portion of Cuba, where the government issued a hurricane warning for six provinces, tourists were evacuated, and baseball games were played earlier Sunday than originally scheduled.
Public Advisories Updated every three hours.
Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours
Ernesto Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 3 & 5 day forecast tracks
Buoy Data Florida & Eastern GOM
Satellite Images
Additional Resources:
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Tropical Storm Ernesto I
Hurricane Ernesto
Right forward of the center of circulation.
Our (Tampa) local news hasn't stopped doom 'n glooming all afternoon. It was almost like they weren't actually looking at the same storm.
Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 17
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 28, 2006
The center is not well defined on high-resolution visible images and
synoptic surface observations from Cuba show little evidence of a
center. But based on observations from an Air Force hurricane
hunter aircraft flying along the north coast of Cuba...the center
is just inland of the north coast. The system became quite
disorganized... with most of the deep convection left behind near
the eastern tip of Cuba. Some of this disorganization may be due
to the influence of a small upper low just to the north-northwest
of Ernesto. Recently...however...some new cells of deep convection
are now developing near the estimated center. We expect some
re-strengthening to occur after Ernesto moves over the Atlantic
waters to the north of Cuba. However since the inner core has been
disrupted by the cyclone's passage over land...it is not
anticipated that this strengthening will be rapid. In fact...the
SHIPS-based rapid intensification index shows a less than 20
percent chance for rapid strengthening. The official forecast GOES
with a blend of the SHIPS...GFDL...and FSU superensemble guidance
and keeps the system just below hurricane strength before the
forecast landfall in southern Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning is
being issued for portions of Florida and the northwestern Bahamas
at this time. However...since there is still a chance for Ernesto
to reach hurricane status during the next 36 hours...the Hurricane
Watch remains in place for the warned areas in Florida and the
northwestern Bahamas.
The motion...310/11...is uncertain but appears to be a little faster
and slightly to the left of the previous estimate. A mid-level
high over the southeastern U.S. Is forecast to shift
east-southeastward over the next couple of days as a trough moves
in from the lower Mississippi Valley. Some of the track guidance
such as the GFS have shifted slightly westward while others have
changed little since the previous run. The official track forecast
for this package is slightly faster but otherwise about the same as
that from the previous advisory through 48 hours...and very close
to the GFDL prediction. In 3-5 days the official track has been
shifted westward in accordance with the latest model consensus.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 28/2100z 21.3n 76.9w 35 kt
12hr VT 29/0600z 22.5n 78.0w 45 kt
24hr VT 29/1800z 24.3n 79.7w 55 kt
36hr VT 30/0600z 26.1n 80.5w 60 kt...inland
48hr VT 30/1800z 27.8n 80.8w 50 kt...inland
72hr VT 31/1800z 32.5n 80.0w 70 kt
96hr VT 01/1800z 36.0n 78.0w 30 kt...inland
120hr VT 02/1800z 40.0n 78.0w 20 kt...remnant low
$$
forecaster Pasch
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/at200605.disc.html
Gotta keep our priorities straight!
No kidding. If they can't detect a surface circulation over Cuba, there can't be much of one left.
A mid-level high over the southeastern U.S. Is forecast to shift east-southeastward over the next couple of days as a trough moves in from the lower Mississippi Valley.
And that's the mechanism they are forecasting to move this more westward.
Some of the track guidance such as the GFS have shifted slightly westward while others have changed little since the previous run.
Well, the eastward-shifting trend has now halted. It will be quite interesting to see the forecast track 12 hours from now.
Still, this could be like, uh, bad... for Florida, couldn't it?
Oh, I hear ya. Last time I went down to the panhandle, a couple of years ago, it was under red-flag conditions. I only waded in, but even at that, I could feel the currents trying to pull my feet out from under me. That was without a tropical system around.
If it's just a tropical storm going through Florida, it's not that bad. Ernesto is very chewed up now, and the air betweeen it and Florida is pretty dry. It'll be hard for it to get up to hurricane strength.
Crap, is that my house??
Nah, now the forecast track takes it into Charleston, SC.
dead on Miami hit??
I'm in Brevard county and have a massive construction project going on in Palm Bay south of Melbourne. Last orders I received at 3:30 this afternoon were to spend tomorrow securing the site. This means bringing all the materials inside (the stuff that will fly). Is this thing most likely to be just a storm and am I wasting my time now? I Just turned the TV on and lo and behold it's the dead girl story as usual...
with this track it's going to hit a little east of Raleigh as it goes through NC. The problem if it still exists, is the storm stalling in the Carolinas, dumping a ton of rain, but not so much with the winds.
See gfdl 2006082812-ernesto05l Forecast slp Java Animation model
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2006082812-ernesto05l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
As battered as it is and with the hostile environment it has to traverse, I have to wonder if it'll even survive its trip over Florida to emerge into the Atlantic. OTOH, if it does make it to the Atlantic, it's got the Gulf Stream to feed on.
That's a much less threatening track than the last one.
But just as a reminder, the cone on the chart is the potential track for the center of the storm -- not the predicted extent of the storm.
Florida isn't that wide - it could pick up moisture from the west or the east, couldn't it?
2 PM Friday is dead on me.
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