TS/Hurricane/TS Ernesto

NWS/NHC ^ | 28 August 2006 | NHC

[NautiNurse]

Florida Governor Jeb Bush ordered a state of emergency in advance of Ernesto's anticipated Florida landfall as a hurricane. During his press briefing, Governor Bush emphasized the need to, "Have your family plan in place. Be prepared to be on your own for 72 hours. I know it sounds like a broken record." Jeb then repeated his message in Spanish.

All of the South Florida peninsula and Keys are under a hurricane watch, and portions of the watch areas may be upgraded to hurricane warnings later today.

NASA is moving Space Shuttle Atlantis from the launch pad back to its protective hangar, with the launch postponed until at least Sept. 7-8.

Hurricane Ernesto was downgraded to Tropical Storm status after battering Haiti and the Dominican Republic all day Sunday. The death toll in Haiti from Ernesto currently stands at 1 person; storm reports from Hispaniola are scarce this morning.

Ernesto has approached the eastern portion of Cuba, where the government issued a hurricane warning for six provinces, tourists were evacuated, and baseball games were played earlier Sunday than originally scheduled.

Public Advisories Updated every three hours.

Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours

Three Day Tracking Map

Ernesto Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 3 & 5 day forecast tracks

Buoy Data Florida & Eastern GOM

Hurricane Model Tracks

Storm Surge graphic

Satellite Images

Visible Satellite Still Image

IR Image

WV Image

Additional Resources:

Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Tropical Storm Ernesto I

Hurricane Ernesto

[Bones75]

"I don't recall -- and the fault might be with my recollection -- a lot of surfers being killed or seriously injured in major storms. They know they're on the edge, try to read the waves, and are more likely attuned to when it's time to get the hell out "

They do that alot here in FLorida, especially people who are hard core surfers (wanna-be pro's).. their response is that it's a once in a lifetime chance... they wait their whole lives for surf like that...usually they leave when the police order them off the beach, but there always some yahoo who has gets in over his head. (literally)

[dirtboy]

The north Atlantic water vapor imagery shows that an exit to the east anytime soon is not very likely.

I don't see much eastward movement for a few days either. However, I just don't see what is going to push Ernesto that far west to Florida. The trough that was NW of Ernesto dug down to the west of the storm center and blew the convection away from the center. For a few more hours, the upper-level north winds will prevent Ernesto from moving much to the west.

The forecast trend for several days has been for the track to shift eastwards. Now that the US coast is within the 2-day track instead of the 5-day, the shifts should get less pronounced. But a shift of only 30 miles more to the east will keep Ernesto away from Florida - and the storm seems have moved more NNW than NW over the last 12 hours, so some of that distance has already happened.

I don't think anyone should let their guard down, but the chances look good for a near miss, or even a NNW track through the Bahamas.

[abb]

The outflow is more NNW than anything. Doesn't outflow direction indicate the center to follow later, or am I mistaken?

[abb]

woah! gasoline DOWN $.12 on the nymex...

[dirtboy]

I don't even think that's outflow - I think that's shear. All the outflow seems to be to the east, but at the moment there ain't a lot of out to flow because there isn't much in coming in.

[clintonh8r]

Do these projected tracks assume existing atmospheric conditions, or what they expect the conditions to be in the future?

[dirtboy]

Twelve cents? Kewl. Maybe the oil price fear factor is deflating. I figure that and raw speculation are behind a good twenty bucks of the current price.

[Orlando]

You are correct and by 8-10 PM we will know, but let's not forget that Charley, Katrina, Dennis jump from Cat-2 to 4 within a hour(Charley) and the others jump from Cat-1 to Cat 5 within 6 hours. We never know what could happen with these storms.

Here's what I notice from past hurricanes (those that jump from 2,3,4 cat levels) within hours. I look at Sun data from NASA and always found that , during these time periods that Earth is getting hit with Strong X-Rays and/or Geomagnetic storms and adding the hot water effect too= bigger storms.

For example(Today)

http://www.n3kl.org/sun/noaa.html

Major Solar Storms

Is there a connection ? I don't know
just my .02 cents

[dirtboy]

Do these projected tracks assume existing atmospheric conditions, or what they expect the conditions to be in the future?

They are based on averaging of several different model runs. The models attempt to initialize the storm as to what the position, strength and environmental conditions are and then move it out into the future factoring in water temps, landmasses and other weather patterns - hurricanes almost always react to steering patterns instead of causing them (some really strong ones can affect their own steering patterns).

I don't know how much of a model is pure math and how much is based on factoring in history. But if the model can't properly initialize the storm, it can be problematic to forecast it. And it's just a guess, but I think the forecasters are getting a bit too dependent upon the models instead of looking at the current live data around the system (that initialization thingy).

[1COUNTER-MORTER-68]

The Eastern-Seaboard folks should watch this storm closely.
This storm could hit anywhere up the coast,,It Ain't dead.
Thanks for the link,,the first Hurricane I Watched was
Katrina,,my storm tracker is a ruler ;0)

[STARWISE]

FYI -- check for Citgo stations.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1691291/posts?page=178#178

[Fawn]

I'm going to guess 1/2 day tuesday and off wednesday for sure. I am guessing it's going to be a cat 1...and my office won't have electric for at least a day or two. At home...I won't have it for a week.... AGAIN.

[txhurl]

Finally raining in Austin!

This is beautiful.

[rock_lobsta]

Those poor mooooozelimb insurgent detainees at gitmo. That eeeeeeeevil George Bush sent this storm to torture them further. /s

Smelly terrorist bastards finally got a bath.

[LBelle]

Have hope. So much crap fell from the trees last year, so maybe there won't be as much tree damage and FPL won't take as long this time. We hicks in the Keys are lucky with our great little electric co-op and their aggressive tree trimming policy. We had power back less than 12 hours after Wilma departed. The electric guys were gods around here for months.

LBelle

[Fawn]

Wow...within 12 hours? It was a week for me...8 days actually....no phone for 6 days.....and Yes..the FPL guys were worshipped at that time hahaha.

Just heard them talking about Katrina and how this is taking the same route and that in Florida Katrina killed people. They are trying to point out not to take this lightly. I talked to one guy at work and he said he's not even putting up his shutters if it's a cat 1. STUPID! As Jeb noted. PEOPLE DIE IN A CAT 1.

[Elle Bee]

it's about 88-89 on the surface here today

but we are very shallow (literally and figuratively)and the storm will cross the florida straits after sunset when the temperature will drop and the straits are deep and and move more quickly than the water surrounding KW

I'm guessing that this will be a rain event which will follow the gulf-stream up the coast

.

[onthedancefloort]

As you know the storm will seek out the path of least resistance. It is emerging now off the northern coast of Cuba and really does have a great outflow signature for a storm that had it's lower circulation lifted by the mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba. That is important for it should get caught up then in the westerlies that are present just North of it. Which of course would steer it towards Florida.

I think the models have caught up with it now, and they should handle the system a bit better...!

Keep up the info though Dirtboy, it will be interesting to see what this storm does!

-t

[No Blue States]

Maybe it will wash up some flint...we got 2.2" in Fort Worth this morning and more possible this pm.
What a miracle. :)

[onthedancefloort]

You are welcome, and also correct. Ernesto, has a few more tricks up his sleeve.

-t