TS/Hurricane/TS Ernesto

NWS/NHC ^ | 28 August 2006 | NHC

[Dog Gone]

I'm glad your grandmother is in such a sturdy house. She should have little problem dealing with Ernesto safety-wise. It is a major hassle to lose power or to have branches blocking street traffic. But it's not the end of the world.

[Rippin]

Joe Bastardi is very seldom right.

But he's never, ever in doubt...
_____________________________________
He always tries to shoot the moon but he hits it enough to be interesting. At least with winter storms he has.

[IamConservative]

There was a hurricane last year I believe that looked like it was going to spin off NNE in the Atlantic that did a loop and came back and hit Florida's east coast.

Any chance of this doing that based on what you see?

I am a weather expert like my local station has, I can tell you tomorrow what it did today.

[NautiNurse]

I think you are referring to Hurricane Jeanne in 2004.

[Dog Gone]

Every cat 1 storm was a disaster in my area. It was at least a week of just hell.

I don't mean to minimize it. It's not a spring shower.

My point is that it's very unlikely to kill you, unlike stronger storms that seem to have that as their main goal. Most fatalities in Category 1 storms are traffic-related.

I wouldn't wish a Category 1 storm on anyone except maybe Syria. And wishing won't help me much there. ;-)

[dirtboy]

There was a hurricane last year I believe that looked like it was going to spin off NNE in the Atlantic that did a loop and came back and hit Florida's east coast.

That was in 2004 - Jeanne.

Any chance of this doing that based on what you see?

Doubtful - a trough is supposed to drop down and pull the storm off first to the North and then the NE. The question is, how far west will the storm get before that happens?

Right now, it looks like an upper-level low is beating it to a pulp (no convection west of the center that I can see) - and that will also help push it further northwards.

[longtermmemmory]

I really resent the local media weather-whores. They are just recycling the NOAA.org data.

I have more up to date information here at FR than ANY news service.

The AM stations are probably pushing their ad agents into overdrive telling customers people will be trapped home.

[onyx]

Good morning --- hey I finally called one right --- he petered out. For my daughter to get damage, the h-canes have to go south of Jam.

Now we need to watch out for our FL FRiends and maybe up the eastern coast to the Carolina's right?

[Dog Gone]

I think you're right about this continuing to have a track that is more easterly. But the cone still includes much of Florida and it would be wrong to officially discount anything west of the black line in the storm path projection.

[shield]

LOL...he says he's a hurricane expert. Out of 8 predictions...he's gotten 1 right!!!! My wee little self has a better prediction percent than that. All I'm relying on...yrs and yrs on the Texas coast and just watching hurricanes. And then you've got the old timers on the Texas coast can beat Joe every time. I'm amazed how accurate those ole' boys are.

[since I'm in hot Texas...I pay NO attention to his winter predicts]

[NautiNurse]

My point is that it's very unlikely to kill you, unlike stronger storms

Never underestimate the power of ignorance or testosterone when the surf is up along a shoreline.

[MonroeDNA]

TS/Hurricane Bobblehead.

[dirtboy]

I think you're right about this continuing to have a track that is more easterly. But the cone still includes much of Florida and it would be wrong to officially discount anything west of the black line in the storm path projection.

Agree entirely. As long as you're within the 48-72 hour cone of uncertainty, you need to act like a Cat 1 is barrelling down on you. If wait until you're sure, it's often too late - just ask Ray "Charles" Nagin - blind to the danger.

[IamConservative]

Right now, it looks like an upper-level low is beating it to a pulp (no convection west of the center that I can see)

Thanks - sounds like Ernesto is dying at present. Hopefully it won't fuel back up again. I think we could use a break for once.

I watched the Katrina show on Discovery last night. Seemed more like a FEMA absolution tour than a factual documentary.

[Dog Gone]

Hi Onyx!

I nearly forgot about your daughter. A couple of days ago she was the bullseye as Ernesto was heading to western Cuba or the Yucatan.

She might notice a change in wind direction, but that's about it.

[Howlin]

Ah, did I forget to show you this before you moved?

http://dnet.net/news/ivan/

It was B A D.

Most of the Gulf ones come right up behind you!

[CindyDawg]

Oh, ok. It was even worse though. Nagin had weather experts pleading with him. I think on calling a pre-diaster that it is fund related. It seems like I heard somewhere that it saves several days of red tape. If Ernie passes, it's good practice. Yall have a good governor IMO anyway.

[dirtboy]

Thanks - sounds like Ernesto is dying at present. Hopefully it won't fuel back up again. I think we could use a break for once.

It could well make it across Cuba with some circulation intact and regenerate. But it sure is not doing well at the moment - even on the visible, you can see where the trough is ripping the convetion off to the north of the storm. Landfall was just west of Gitmo - but now there is absolutely no convection west of Gitmo, which means the circulation is now exposed on the west side.

[abb]

looking at the loop, I can't see just a whole lot of westward movement, dirt...

[new yorker 77]

HURRICANE ERNESTO - a.k.a. Sparrow Fart of a Nothing Storm