It could well make it across Cuba with some circulation intact and regenerate. But it sure is not doing well at the moment - even on the visible, you can see where the trough is ripping the convetion off to the north of the storm. Landfall was just west of Gitmo - but now there is absolutely no convection west of Gitmo, which means the circulation is now exposed on the west side.
TD 11 in the Pacific looks more impressive than Ernesto at this point.