Hurricane Ernesto

NWS/NHC ^ | 27 August 2006 | NHC

[NautiNurse]

Ernesto is rapidly intensifying to near hurricane strength, with heavy rains and flooding possible over much of Hispaniola. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches...with possible isolated amounts of up to 20 inches...are expected over Haiti and the Dominican Republic. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for Jamaica. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Cayman Islands. A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of the Florida Keys later today.

Public Advisories Updated every three hours.

Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours

Three Day Tracking Map

Ernesto Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 3 & 5 day forecast tracks

Buoy Data Caribbean Sea

Buoy Data Florida & Eastern GOM

Hurricane Model Tracks

Storm Surge graphic

Satellite Images

Visible Satellite Still Image

IR Image

WV Image

Additional Resources:

Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Tropical Storm Ernesto I

[CFC__VRWC]

There was some discussion upthread about Ernesto possibly curving even further to the east, raking the Florida Keys and South Florida before emerging into the Atlantic. Any thoughts on that?

[yield 2 the right]

"Ernesto" is one tough tropical system to forecast!!!!!!!!!!!

[NautiNurse]

Reisen chews

Pssst--don't tell anyone, but Reisen chews were on sale 2 for 1 at Publix yesterday.

[Dog Gone]

That Inez track is fascinating, although I doubt the folks in the Florida Keys would describe it in those terms.

Haiti has killed several storms for sure. But Ernesto is not really plowing into the heart of it, although it's difficult to determine exactly where the center of circulation is at the moment.

Haiti has wounded it. Time will tell whether it killed it. My guess is that it hasn't.

[NautiNurse]

I keep local internet dial-up numbers on the laptop for those electricity challenged times.

[CindyDawg]

I hear ya. I stocked up on some stuff the day Ernie was heading to Texas. I bought some mini milky ways and a big 7 dollar bag of mini Reese's cups. For the grandkids of course:')

[CFC__VRWC]

Now you've done it - let the Reisen run commence! I can't have them due to the sugar and the potential for wrecking my dental work, but that just means more for you.

[new yorker 77]

I think that the detestable MSM once again LIED to the public by taking a nothing storm and making a b-line for New Orleans in their track.

This fart of a storm is going to get destroyed by Hispaniola and Cuba only to hit weakly into Florida.

MSM hoping it strengthens and hits highly LIB populated counties so that they can get moron LIBS on camera complaining about Bush and Republicans.

MSM will also use this hurricane to remind people that President Bush caused Hurricane Katrina.

[Txsleuth]

I shoulda known you would...you are an old hand at Hurricane threads...

Just wanted you to know I was thinking of you!! LOL

BTW...false alarm...it rained for 5 MINUTES!!!

ggggggRRRRRRRR.

[CindyDawg]

A miracle!!!!!!

[NautiNurse]

Indeed, I worry a bit that the next Reisen will win the crown, if you know what I mean...

[No Blue States]

Another big blob of convection fired up around what is probably the center, replacing the old..looks to me as if it will survive Haiti wounded but limping into a better enviroment.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html

[tiredoflaundry]

Thanks sleuthie!

[Txsleuth]

lol...That may be what you get...under warranty indeed.

Since this will be your first experience..we REALLY want you to keep posting..this will be very interesting for you, I am sure...and as someone who has never been through a hurricane...

I will have particular interest in how it is for you...

Please let us know...kinda like a diary.

[debg]

That's true. This is a new subdivision and all we have is digital access.

[Txsleuth]

I hope YOUR rain lasted longer than mine..

sheesh, five minutes...and now the sun is out.

[debg]

That's the one thing I don't have that would come in handy - a laptop. I'm tempted to get a cheap PC to keep on hand just for those times! I'm a Mac person but I won't add a Mac laptop at those prices!

[nwctwx]

It's probably among the more likely scenarios right now, if you trust model guidance at least.

At this point, I don't think most people (including NHC) have a very good idea of what will happen anymore.

[NautiNurse]

Easy now...Ernesto is not exactly a "nothing storm," and I'm pretty certain Haitians would agree with my point. If your home was in the current NHC forecast path, you would not be calling Ernesto "a fart of a storm" either. Settle down, and please keep your comments to reasoned opinions. Thank you.

[new yorker 77]

I think they will invent a time machine so they can go back to their diagrams where they had this storm going right into New Orleans.