Hurricane Ernesto

NWS/NHC ^ | 27 August 2006 | NHC

[NautiNurse]

Ernesto is rapidly intensifying to near hurricane strength, with heavy rains and flooding possible over much of Hispaniola. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches...with possible isolated amounts of up to 20 inches...are expected over Haiti and the Dominican Republic. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for Jamaica. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Cayman Islands. A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of the Florida Keys later today.

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Three Day Tracking Map

Ernesto Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 3 & 5 day forecast tracks

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Storm Surge graphic

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Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Tropical Storm Ernesto I

[Dog Gone]

Maybe they're missing the strongest winds, but they would have to fly into the mountains of Haiti to reach the NE sector, and you know they ain't gonna do that.

It will be interesting to see what the NHC does with the recon information.

Ernesto is barely a tropical storm based on that data.

I'm guessing they will discount for the very reason you mentioned, but if it's a hurricane, it's not much of one at the moment. Maybe the "mountains" of Cuba will mess with it more than I expected.

[debg]

Hehe, you remembered from the other thread!

Actually, I usually buy some KFC right before a possible storm.

[DocRock]

Bookmark

[dirtboy]

Maybe the "mountains" of Cuba will mess with it more than I expected.

On the current forecast track, it first gets punched in the midsection by the mountains of Haiti (up to 8,500 feet) and then by the mountains of Cuba (6,500 feet).

The outflow on the storm looks very impressive, indicating little shear, but the conveyor in is getting interrupted.

[NautiNurse]

I had to drive through Arcadia multiple times in 2004 following Fran and Jeanne, both of whom made landfall in Stuart where my mother lives. Eeesh, those were some precarious trips because of the unknown gasoline situation enroute. The trip takes the better part of a full tank one way in the truck. Topped off the tank virtually any time I saw a gas station with electricity, not knowing when there wouldn't be an opportunity.

[tiredoflaundry]

I'm doomed! They closed the KFC by me! ;-)

[CFC__VRWC]

Haiti will have hundreds or thousands dead from the flooding today.

It could be tens of thousands. All those mountainsides with the trees stripped away are massive mudslides just waiting to happen. And with a government so corrupt and inept, chances are the people caught in them will receive zero help that doesn't come from other countries.

[dirtboy]

Position Of The Center: 17 ° 45 ' N 073 ° 52 ' W (17.75° N

According to this, the center is just off the coast - the southernmost parts of Haiti are just about 18 north.

[SE Mom]

:) Yep- good to get the to-do's done early..

[twin2]

I just returned from Publix in Miami. Definately more people than the usual post-church crowd. Ice and water were moving quickly, but they are bringing in more.

I should have gassed up the car, but I will go out later and do that.

[Txsleuth]

Yikes...you and SE Mom ARE in the path aren't you...

Darn...please keep on this thread...and let us know how you are doing...

You could even add your city to a tagline...so we can keep track of all of our Florida freepers...

[CFC__VRWC]

Maybe the "mountains" of Cuba will mess with it more than I expected.

One can only hope.

[NautiNurse]

Thanks for the update. Water was in a lot of grocery carts here too yesterday when I was stocking up on hurricane chocolate.

[Txsleuth]

Do you want me to deliver some KFC??

It might be a bit cold from driving from north Texas..but, hey, cold chicken is alright...LOL

Seriesly...please take care of yourself...batten those hatches!!

[debg]

Oh, so sorry! That is distressing.

[1COUNTER-MORTER-68]

LOL;0)

[SE Mom]

Yeah- there are a bunch of FReepers here that might have some wind and rain.

We'll see what it decides to do..keeping an eye on it for sure..

[Txsleuth]

Hurricane chocolate, huh.....

LOL..I love freepers...it seems like the more distressful the subject of the thread..the more chocolate makes an appearance.

YOU also need to put your city in your tagline so we can keep track of you!!

[tiredoflaundry]

;0)

[debg]

If it comes this way, it will be my first storm living in this area. I don't know how my new neighbors will react. Will they buy out the shelves early? Scream and curse, push and shove? I am curious!