Hurricane Ernesto

NWS/NHC ^ | 27 August 2006 | NHC

[NautiNurse]

Ernesto is rapidly intensifying to near hurricane strength, with heavy rains and flooding possible over much of Hispaniola. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches...with possible isolated amounts of up to 20 inches...are expected over Haiti and the Dominican Republic. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for Jamaica. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Cayman Islands. A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of the Florida Keys later today.

Public Advisories Updated every three hours.

Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours

Three Day Tracking Map

Ernesto Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 3 & 5 day forecast tracks

Buoy Data Caribbean Sea

Buoy Data Florida & Eastern GOM

Hurricane Model Tracks

Storm Surge graphic

Satellite Images

Visible Satellite Still Image

IR Image

WV Image

Additional Resources:

Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Tropical Storm Ernesto I

[Raebie]

A good site with a great forum:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewforum.php?f=31

[tiredoflaundry]

Mr TOL reports gas lines at SR. 56 Sam's Club. Mostly folks filling gas cans.

[Coldwater Creek]

Google Victor Victrola and you more than likely will find out all that you ever wanted to know.

[Sam Cree]

"The good news is, if it tracked over far SE Cuba, the mountains there would chew it up a fair amount..."

Yes, good point, I was forgetting those mountains, they can help a lot. I remember Hurricane David pretty well, very strong storm, but greatly weakened as it crossed Hispaniola, ended up hitting Palm Beach as a minor hurricane, IIRC.

[Howlin]

I bought a 512K thumb drive on sale no long ago. I cannot imagine WHAT I did before I got that thing. I move everything to my new laptop to it!

[Howlin]

I just got back from Destin.

And I want it JUST like I left it when I go back in a couple of months!

[Sam Cree]

"But say you knew that the sun's output was on an increasing trend and you assumed that would keep increasing over the next 30 years."

Yes, that's what I was thinking, they do know that the sun itself has cycles, also there is an ice age cycle that is pretty well quantified. A little more precision on these things and there could be some accuracy in climate forecasting.

[GottaLuvAkitas1]

"By charting FR posters on this thread I'd say that there is no confidence in the models for Ernesto. I'm gonna go outside and draw the gulf coast with corn and see where my rooster Southern Confederacy starts pick'in. That will probably be as accurate as any other model this far out, and with Cuba in play."

ROFLMAO! Just keep him pick'in away from VA. if you could.
I'm with you, though the posts are a great comfort while reading them, the facts are no one really knows.

[babaloo]

"Check post #182. It was looking like deja Katrina yesterday. It was looking like deja Charley earlier this morning. Hard to tell what the deja is now."


I vote for "deja crapshoot"

[SouthTexas]

Thanks, have thought about that. It's sort of like "moving", some of the junk really needs to go, so dumping it all is not that bad of an idea. :)

[nwctwx]

Charley hit the warmest waters in the whole tropical Atlantic just prior to crossing Cuba, then again on his way into FL. When crossing Cuba, most of the storm was still offshore and it began strengthening almost immediately after departing Cuba.

Also, the trough that grabbed Charley was very strong, and the idea of a rapid recurve was much better modeled.

The core of this storm has been ragged and disorganized for most of the life cycle, and guidance has been pretty bad because of that.

I'm still wondering about this mornings track, but it does match up with what's been going on this year, so it's hard to argue with all that much right now.

[MikefromOhio]

With that track you could kiss MacDill AFB and USCENTCOM goodbye...Thank God they have a backup plan :)

They are only 3-7 feet above sea level just out of Tampa Bay....

[Caipirabob]

last track shows a more NE movement from the Gulf. Sounds like a drill and inventory would be advice well taken. I think we'll wait until tonight to get the gas, we've already gotten the propane.

Aw man...

[Howlin]

But you NEED your weather links!

[Timeout]

Looks like we may have dodged another bullet.
(Man, I hope I don't have to eat those words later!)

[Dog Gone]

Those mountains of Cuba are not that impressive. Here's a screenshot of them where Ernesto is supposed to cross. They are about 3,000 feet high and only 20 miles deep. Ernesto will cross them in about 90 minutes.

[varina davis]

If Ernie hits Tampa Bay as a Cat. 3 -- or even less -- there will unimaginable havoc. We better hope it will not. Millions of elderly and special needs folks in that area and really, no where to go.

[Doohickey]

Hmmm. I'm supposed to fly down to Ft. Lauderdale tomorrow (work related). I'm wondering if I shouldn't change my travel plans....

[SouthTexas]

That's what this thread is for and a friend sends me the link I posted at the beginning of every hurricane season.

THAT part is well covered. :)

[Sam Cree]

"it's not nearly the vast screeching turn deviation it's made out to be."

Somehow,that isn't too widely understood. I remember the forecasting from the 60's. It's light years better today, as far as I can see, but no one should think it's quite to the level of being *precise.*

Ping me when you get the site up and running, I'd love to see it.