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Posted on 08/27/2006 1:39:35 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Ernesto is rapidly intensifying to near hurricane strength, with heavy rains and flooding possible over much of Hispaniola. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches...with possible isolated amounts of up to 20 inches...are expected over Haiti and the Dominican Republic. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for Jamaica. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Cayman Islands. A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of the Florida Keys later today.
Public Advisories Updated every three hours.
Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours
Ernesto Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 3 & 5 day forecast tracks
Buoy Data Caribbean Sea
Buoy Data Florida & Eastern GOM
Storm Surge graphic
Satellite Images
Additional Resources:
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
They don't want to be blamed for not giving enough notice. Even though Nagin squandered over half the actual notice they gave him last time.
I roused my 18 year old and sent him over to the nearest WalMart before heading to church, to replenish stuff we've used up from our hurricane supplies (mostly water and batteries.)
He said that there was nobody at the store.
However, Charlie's angle of approach meant that only a slight course change put Charlotte Harbor in the crosshairs. IMO, the forecast track was relatively accurate in that case. If it had approached more from a westerly direction, that wouldn't have been so.
No. Bayou La Batre is to the west of me, I'm guessing, about ten miles or so.
Worse yet, they won't even acknowledge what the earth climate was between ten thousand years ago and last century.
ok, I just looked at your graphic--and I need more info about this graphic that is making me feel terribly queasy.
I agree. I am skeptical of it too. But say you knew that the sun's output was on an increasing trend and you assumed that would keep increasing over the next 30 years. I think that would make forcasts of higher average temperature in 30 years at least as accurate of 3 day hurricane forcasts which I am guessing are based on certain assumptions of observed trends too.
"I continue to be amazed at the persistent belief that NHC tracks are based more on politics than an honest belief on where the a system might go at the time."
The idea doesnt really hold water does it?
The NHC has a job to predict weather, the accuracy of their forecast is to their benefit. They wouldnt intentionally make themselves look bad for any political concern.
Whatever they forecast is what they actually believe at the time, but weather is very complicated and is constantly changing.
They were quite accurate on Katrina I might add. 3 days out.
You are out there. How are the fishing folks doing now? Amazing to see where some of those shrimp boats ended up.
Keep in mind that HUGE errors in forecast track and INTENSITY are likely with Ernesto
1. Because of the fact that he may spend a long period of time over a land-mass (Cuba)
2. Yesterday the NHC was suggesting that Louisiana and Mississippi would be ground zero. Today that has been moved to Tampa. This shows how large the errors can be in a short amount of time.
3. There is much debate as to what form Ernesto will leave Cuba.
Things to keep in mind.
Certainly Florida should be making early preparations for a possible hurricane later this week.
Yeah, when I actually get around to having a website I'm going to have an overlay of the actual Charley track on the forecast for Charley from the day before - it's not nearly the vast screeching turn deviation it's made out to be. Also for some reason psychologically people around Punta Gorda must think of Tampa distance-wise as being on the other side of the moon rather than just up the coast.
Punta Gorda was under a hurricane warning for almost 24 hours, and even if Charley had taken the NHC forecast track, Punta Gorda was expected to get hurricane force winds. Nobody there should have been particularly surprised.
They were surprised that the eye crossed their area. They were not surprised they had a hurricane. :)
It's the same sort of mentality that thinks a bunch of mild-mannered nerdy engineer types at the NTSB could run a vast evil conspiracy lasting years to cover up the true cause of an airliner crash....
Weird how much venom one sees against the NHC - heck, look at the threads about Max Mayfield last week - accused of being off his meds, of being a Global Warming nut, etc.
silentknight posted the graphic elsewhere, so you can ask him on specifics.
I believe it's the NHC track with graphical overlays representing how the winds would likely be spread.
That image is obviously not so good for Tampa Bay, but it's early in the game still.
One thing to keep in mind is the 5-day forecast tracks are a fairly recent development. The actual major track changes have all been in the 4-5 day range - if the 5 day tracks were not public people wouldn't be talking about big NHC forecast track changes all that much at this point.
And Erin should have demostrated to Floridans that hurricanes taking a diagonal towards the coast can make sudden right turns that put them ashore very quickly where they were not expected.
LOL. Me too.
Years ago when I/we lived in Houston, I commented to my son how fortunate we'd been not to ever have been burglarized. He said, "Dad we don't have anything anyone wants."
Btw, I still have my 8-track tape player. I have it packed away with all the other 'old' stuff I intend to leave my son when I die. I have a late 50's radio (still works) that's made of bakelite (preplastic) with tubes in that stash.
In other weather news, Hurricane Ioke is now Super Typhoon Ioke, and is forecast to remain a supertyphoon for at least the next 3 days. It should set the record for the longest duration Cat 4+ storm. Glad that bitch is out in the middle of nowhere.
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