Hurricane Ernesto

NWS/NHC ^ | 27 August 2006 | NHC

[NautiNurse]

Ernesto is rapidly intensifying to near hurricane strength, with heavy rains and flooding possible over much of Hispaniola. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches...with possible isolated amounts of up to 20 inches...are expected over Haiti and the Dominican Republic. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for Jamaica. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Cayman Islands. A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of the Florida Keys later today.

Public Advisories Updated every three hours.

Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours

Three Day Tracking Map

Ernesto Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 3 & 5 day forecast tracks

Buoy Data Caribbean Sea

Buoy Data Florida & Eastern GOM

Hurricane Model Tracks

Storm Surge graphic

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Additional Resources:

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Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Tropical Storm Ernesto I

[jslade]

Latest forecast shows a direct hit on Tampa, Florida

Don't forget, Charlie was supposed to hit Tampa.

[Rock N Jones]

"Note the sharp jog to the NE. Let's hope that happens sooner rather than later."

That depends on your perspective, I am hoping that it changes later than sooner.

Not to wish ill on others, of course.

[nwctwx]

It does seem there is a jog north again this morning. It looks like there is a chance the center will pass over part of western Hispaniola.

[AFPhys]

So you are depending on the knowledge that the intensity of the Sun will warm NY more in the summer than in winter. That is simple orbital physics: well established and proven.

On what well established techniques are you relying upon for other long term forecasting? If it has anything to do with computer modelling, you are using the same techniques as these hurricane forecasts: which fall apart within a few days.

We REALLY don't know how to do long term forecasting. In fact, the "Global Circulation Models" are so poor that if they start a run, and it shows the long term temperature decreasing, they completely throw it out! Then they change the initial assumptions until it increases, and run it again.

Nothing demonstrates the folly of these computer models better that these hurricane models, which have had HUGE amounts of time and money thrown at them, both by the public sector, and the private sector.

Gotta run to church now.

[bobdsmith]

I am only saying that long term forcasts are not always less certain than short term forcasts. The length of the forcast is just one factor. The specificness of what is being forcasted is another.

[ClearBlueSky]

Thank you! Buzzards are never a welcome sight to the dying.
A coastal wipe may be in the cards, cosmically- but wishing more death and destruction on people is wrong.

[AFPhys]

The SHIPS model seems to be the only one that gets this sucker into Cat.3.--- the others heep her in Cat.1 most of the time- touching into Cat.2.

[dirtboy]

It looks like there is a chance the center will pass over part of western Hispaniola.

There is a weak trough to the north. If it can pull Ernesto up just a bit more, that would take it either right into the mountains of SE Cuba and weaken it, or even have it pass along the north coast of Cuba, which would reduce the chance it could make it into the Gulf. Here's to hoping (although this is very bad news for Haiti).

[gov_bean_ counter]

I'm way out in the boonies and don't have a choice.

Bayou La Batre?

[Coldwater Creek]

Doesn't bother me near as much as it does my family.

They are always on me to upgrade my electronics, but I am from the old school of if it isn't broken don't replace it.

[Dog Gone]

This ain't good. Regardless of what shape Ernesto is in after crossing Cuba, it's going to be in an environment ideal for rapid regeneration and intensification.

Tampa residents should be very concerned. It's mild comfort that the projected path is rarely correct this far out, especially when the storm is going to interact with land during the period, but it might be correct, too.

[Sam Cree]

Yes, but the climate guys don't want to predict that we'll still have cold in December, they want to confidently predict that Decembers in 30 years will be warmer that Decembers now.

I don't say that can't be done...but I'm skeptical that current confidence in such things is properly placed.

[LeGrande]

I am only saying that long term forcasts are not always less certain than short term forcasts. The length of the forcast is just one factor. The specificness of what is being forcasted is another.

Then can you give me "any" long term forecast of a temperature that is higher or lower than normal for somewhere? I will place a wager on the normal temperature range for any amount you care to contribute :)

[Sam Cree]

Well, the Bahamas are pretty close to home to us Miamians; don't really like to see them going there either....OTOH, I think you have a point; it won't take much more easterly trending to place the storm there.

That would be some egg on the face of the computer models.

[gov_bean_ counter]

It is almost as if the original NO projected track was a CYA tossed out to get people's attention. This type small storm is still susceptible to steering currents, wind shears and the like. It is when they get to the size of a Frederick or higher that they start going where they want to go and become immune to many mitigating conditions.

[Strategerist]

Nothing demonstrates the folly of these computer models better that these hurricane models, which have had HUGE amounts of time and money thrown at them, both by the public sector, and the private sector.

And thanks to that time and money, track forecasts have improved markedly in the last few years.

[bobdsmith]

So you are depending on the knowledge that the intensity of the Sun will warm NY more in the summer than in winter. That is simple orbital physics: well established and proven.

Which is an example of successful long term forcast. My only point was that long term forcasts of one phenomenon cannot be written off because short term forcasts of another phenomenon are inaccurate.

If it has anything to do with computer modelling, you are using the same techniques as these hurricane forecasts: which fall apart within a few days.

Yes long term hurricane forcasts will be totally inaccurate. But that doesn't mean that long term forcasts of another phenomenon will be totally inaccurate too. That is my only point. I probably didn't say it properly the first time. My wording is never too good im afraid.

[Strategerist]

It is almost as if the original NO projected track was a CYA tossed out to get people's attention.

No, New Orleans was in the rough center of the model consensus at the time.

I continue to be amazed at the persistent belief that NHC tracks are based more on politics than an honest belief on where the a system might go at the time.

[dirtboy]

Well, the Bahamas are pretty close to home to us Miamians; don't really like to see them going there either....

The good news is, if it tracked over far SE Cuba, the mountains there would chew it up a fair amount, so if it then went up through the Bahamas, it probably wouldn't have a chance to become a major hurricane.

[nwctwx]

I continue to be amazed at the persistent belief that NHC tracks are based more on politics than an honest belief on where the a system might go at the time.

Come on... if a system is forming and there is a thread about it here, the first 32 posts have something to do with a hurricane machine. ;)