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Novak - "GOP will lose 27-30 seats..."
Rightalk.com ^ | 8-25-06 | Bob J

Posted on 08/25/2006 12:40:57 PM PDT by Bob J

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To: ABG(anybody but Gore)
Yep, looks like the Washington state Libertarians are going to have to redouble their efforts on behalf of Cantwell.
161 posted on 08/25/2006 6:02:08 PM PDT by CWOJackson
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To: Wolfstar
Could it be that some Republicans like J.D. are in trouble because Hispanics are mobilizing against them for their strong anti-illegal stances?

Uh, No.

And his seat is not endangered.

162 posted on 08/25/2006 6:03:04 PM PDT by Soul Seeker (Kobach: Amnesty is going from an illegal to a legal position, without imposing the original penalty.)
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To: HostileTerritory; LS
I'll gladly concede that there are many who are more astute politically speaking than I am, but I simply refuse to accept so-called prognostic polls unless they provide contextual analysis.

Zogby is a perfect example. Pre-2000 his were fairly highly regarded (some would say peerless). Something partisan happened to him and he simply has no credibility anymore. His polls are a joke.

Someone (LS?) posted a thread a while back that did what these bozos like Novak are supposed to be doing - analysis race by race with context. Not just "X" is favored over "Z" but why one would make that claim.

I guess what I'm saying is once again FR is ahead of the curve!
163 posted on 08/25/2006 6:04:16 PM PDT by rockrr (Never argue with a man who buys ammo in bulk...)
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To: RightWhale
Won't lose any in Alaska.

Well Alaska, like Vermont, isn't exactly sending a huge delegation to Washington.

164 posted on 08/25/2006 6:04:33 PM PDT by Straight Vermonter
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To: Bob J
panelist Robert Novak stated that based on his and others significant research he believed the GOP would lose between 27-30 seats in the House this fall.

That's only partly true. I just watched it on C-span and Novak carefully said he wasn't personally making any predictions. He said GOP House and Senate members themselves made those statements to his reporter for the on-line Evans & Novak Report, and himself. I got down to No. 50 on this thread and nobody even came close to getting the basic facts right -- about par for the course on FR these days.

Looking at your sentence structure you got it right except the part about Novak himself "believing" the GOP would lose lots of seats. He may, and his outlook for the election is pretty grim (as is mine), but that isn't what he said. He did express great personal concern and alarm at the fact that impeached Federal Judge Alcee Hastings (now a Democrat House member) could become chairmain of the House Intelligence Committee if the Democrats regain power -- an event along with many others that terrifies me as well. Sounds like Ron Dellums redux.

165 posted on 08/25/2006 6:10:48 PM PDT by Bernard Marx (Fools and fanatics are always certain of themselves, but the wise are full of doubts.)
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To: fewz
But there was one thing that he could have done and should have done. He should not have allowed the humongous influx of illegal aliens during a time of war. He can’t blame his failure to do this on anyone else.

Have you not heard about "Congress"?

Please. I beg you. Take your complaints about immigration to your Representatives. Stop blaming the President.

Congressional members ONLY can affect a change in immigration law.

166 posted on 08/25/2006 6:17:43 PM PDT by Right_in_Virginia
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To: Right_in_Virginia

Right on Right in Virginia!


167 posted on 08/25/2006 6:18:58 PM PDT by defconw (Yes I am a Bushbot, so what of it? (Official Snowflake))
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To: Right_in_Virginia; All

And the President can enforce EXISTING LAW, which he has not done.

Congress is to blame- True.

So is the administration. And last I checked he was a representative of the people as well.

Also, for those wondering, I did a check around google and Hayworth seems to track anywhere between 5%-15% ahead in the polls in a Republican district with even NPR admitting it was an uphill climb for the Democrat. The 5% apparently from a Survey USA poll which has been unreliable in past. Scratch him off the endangered species.


168 posted on 08/25/2006 6:22:24 PM PDT by Soul Seeker (Kobach: Amnesty is going from an illegal to a legal position, without imposing the original penalty.)
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To: defconw
We were supposed to lose in 2002 as I recall. Novak: BIOYAC!

Can't speak for 2002, but I know in 2004 Novak (correctly) predicted GOP gains in both the House and Senate.

The only reason I remember that is because that nimrod Begala predicted gains in both chambers and was nearly laughed off the Crossfire set by some GOP college group in the audience. It was absolutely priceless.

Sorry, but I think the GOP loses ground in both chambers but doesn't lose control of either - gas prices trump all, fairly or not, IMHO.

I'm sure I'll now be accused of being a seminar poster for daring to believe that the almighty GOP could possibly lose ground. :-)

169 posted on 08/25/2006 6:33:26 PM PDT by Ogie Oglethorpe (2nd Amendment - the reboot button on the U.S. Constitution)
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To: rockrr
It was the Freepers who did it. I wish I could find the thread, but basically, we asked every one who was in the states where USA Today had races involving "vulnerable" seats to chime in. Almost none thought the seat in their state was as "vulnerable" as USA Today made it seem. The we had Freepers identify vulnerable DEM seats, and came up with a good 8-10 that were truly competitive, 3-5 that were in danger.

As I recall the comments:

the two CT seats were fairly safe, despite being in a blue state. These people (Johnston and Shays) each won pretty handily last time, and have hewed "center" ever since.

Hostetler in IN always seems to be "in trouble" and always pulls out squeakers.

Hayworth in AZ is not, and never has been, in trouble

Heather Wilson in NM has taken some "moderate/lib" stands that enrage conservatives, but will probably insulate her from a lot of NM indies.

There are a couple of Dem seats in NC that, as I recall, were up for grabs, and Melissa Bean in IL is thought to be toast.

Ney was one of the seats in the USA Today "watch" list, but my GOP sources tell me that if it's Padgett on the ballot, which it now appears it is, she will win. All other Republicans in OH are safe.

170 posted on 08/25/2006 6:34:20 PM PDT by LS
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To: Ogie Oglethorpe
Losing ground is one thing, losing control? No way. Not enough seats in play at least in the House. The Senate is a noxious vacuum of wasted space unless we are talking judges, otherwise who cares?They don't get anything done anyway.
171 posted on 08/25/2006 6:36:27 PM PDT by defconw (Yes I am a Bushbot, so what of it? (Official Snowflake))
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To: defconw

If it wasn't for the judges, there would be no reason to have the Senate - the number of solid GOP senators can be counted on one hand.


172 posted on 08/25/2006 6:38:58 PM PDT by Ogie Oglethorpe (2nd Amendment - the reboot button on the U.S. Constitution)
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To: Ogie Oglethorpe

Well maybe two hands, but no more then two.


173 posted on 08/25/2006 7:14:28 PM PDT by defconw (Yes I am a Bushbot, so what of it? (Official Snowflake))
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To: West Coast Conservative

West Coast Conservative, thanks for helping my blood pressure and sanity, with that Generic poll showing the Dems and Repubs neck and neck. I dont know whether to believe it, but then it boggles my mind that anyone this day and age would vote Democrat. They are wrong the economy, wrong on the war on terror, wrong on judges. Every problem we have, they have a proposal to make things worse.

These predictions of a Dem victory are extremely frightening.


174 posted on 08/25/2006 7:29:31 PM PDT by WOSG
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To: samadams2000

"Can anyone name a few things this administration has done for CONSERVATIVES lately?"

Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Sam Alito, not bashing Israel like Carter and the Democrats have, tax cuts, more tax cuts, pension reform, tort reform, bankruptcy reform, an energy bill that gets us back into building nuclear power plants and brings sanity into building energy infrastructure, (finally) some more drilling for oil instead of eco-extremism running things ...

" Bush is running out the clock like his old man. We seem to do better out of power anyway."

Nonsense.
You forget the clinton and carter years at your peril!!!


175 posted on 08/25/2006 7:32:42 PM PDT by WOSG
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To: Coop
The only consolation I take from your post is that you're likely not intelligent enough to find your voting location in November.

Looks like I really “stirred the puddin”, as Neal would say. Hmmm. Personal attack. Must be a Democrat.

176 posted on 08/25/2006 7:39:31 PM PDT by fewz (AL_possum39)
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To: SDGOP

"pro illegal alien"

Er, I somehow *MISSED* this when the Republican House passed HR 4437, THE BEST ANTI-ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION BILL IN 20 YEARS!

That was passed by the House Republican conservative majority ... If people are sick and tired of 'pro illegal alien' stuff, then the radical Democrats who pushed for social security benefits for illegal aliens are the ones who will get their clocked clean. Not the conservatives.

If people are sick and tired of our wimps actions in the GWOT, then the anti-American leftists like Democrat Sherrod Brown, who voted against the Patriot Act and demagogues our attempts to fight the terrorists - he should get his clock cleaned.

The Democrats have moved majorly to the left for this election, following in the footsteps of Kos Kids and Howard Dean. This is McGovern redux.... Any victory by the Democrats will be a crushing defeat for conservatives, no matter how or why it came about (including if the defeat was due to conservatives staying home because they dont like any candidate).




177 posted on 08/25/2006 7:40:20 PM PDT by WOSG
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To: WhiteGuy

"send money to a candidate who does not represent you?"

Well, I dont remember saying that. In fact I was referring to supporting in other ways. Furthermore, if I were advocating supporting a candidate that doesn't represent you, I wouldn't be so concerned to type what I did. Better to just let the dems win if that were what I was saying.


178 posted on 08/25/2006 7:49:59 PM PDT by MaineVoter2002 (http://www.cafenetamerica.com)
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To: Right_in_Virginia
Congressional members ONLY can affect a change in immigration law.

I don’t think we were short on laws just short on enforcement. If the INS and BP needed more money to enforce the existing laws then they should have asked Congress for the funds. Since these Republicans spend like Democrats, I’m sure they’d a got the money.

179 posted on 08/25/2006 7:50:31 PM PDT by fewz (AL_possum39)
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To: fewz

"He [Bush] simply refused to secure the borders or to take action against companies that violated the law and hired these illegals. While I don’t think that this constitutes an impeachable offense, I sure wouldn’t mind the Dims getting control of the House for the next two years. ... I sure wouldn’t mind the Dims getting control of the House for the next two years. Not the Senate, just the House. "

What a dimwitted and ignorant comment!!

You talk like your #1 issue is illegal immigration.
Fine. Then, if you had at least some knowledge of where the poltical bodies are these days, you would *know* that the one bulwark against amnesty for illegal aliens is the Republican House! HR4437 fixed the hole in enforcement of our laws, and no, you are not right that Bush is solely to blame for illegal aliens crossing the border, the entire enforcement of the laws is broken and has been for years, in part because of the meddling of *Judges* who trump the rule-of-law and grant hidden amnesties (HR 4437 would have fixed that), the failure of Congress to pay for full border seciruty (HR 4437 would have built 700 miles of barriers), and the failure of Congress to create verification mechanisms for employment that could stick (the 1986 reforms attempted but failed here).

It will be impossible to fix our immigration problems without a bill like HR4437. And it would be impossible to pass such as bill if Congress goes Democrat. Say hello to tens of millions of legalized illegals should we lose the House of Representatives to Democrats!


180 posted on 08/25/2006 7:51:06 PM PDT by WOSG
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