Tropical Depression #5

[nwctwx]

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 315 PM EDT WED AUG 16 2006

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED A CLOSED WIND CIRCULATION...AND ADVISORIES ON EITHER A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM WILL BE INITIATED AT 5 PM AST. MAXIMUM WINDS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STRONGER WINDS MAY BE OBSERVED PRIOR TO ADVISORY TIME.

$$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[abb]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/251434.shtml

000
WTNT35 KNHC 251434
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 25 2006

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE CONTINUING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...NOT YET A TROPICAL STORM...

INTERESTS IN JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS DEPRESSION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.4 WEST OR ABOUT
340 MILES...545 KM...SOUTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT
760 MILES...1220 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DUTCH
NETHERLAND ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...13.5 N...66.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Dog Gone]

I don't like where the models are generally pointing.

[dogbyte12]

You almost always get that curve in the gulf. These are not looking good for the Gulf Coast.

[abb]

Note, however, the western quadrant of the storm is impinging on the dry air. Sort of like it's smushing it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

[Pyro7480]

It's interesting. We had all those Cape Hatteras storms back in the late 1990s (particularly 1996 and 1999), even 2004 had one storm that came close to there (there was also one in 2005). But last year, we had all those storms in the Gulf between Houston and the panhandle of Florida.

[dogbyte12]

11 o'clock map

[Dog Gone]

It's definitely being sheared at the moment, and there's remote chance that it could do a Chris and be sheared naked.

I hope that happens, because if it survives long enough reach the western Caribbean, the conditions there are great for rapid intensification.

Unfortunately, the Hurricane Center thinks it will survive, and is expecting it to become a hurricane within the next 72 hours.

[Aggie Mama]

Oh my gosh, that area from Beaumont-Mobile just can't catch a break. Anything out there that would push it in a more S direction?

[Tall_Texan]

Come to Texas! We need the rain!

[PogySailor]

There's a 50kt mid-level shear over the central Caribbean that could rip this one apart. We'll have to wait and see.

[Dog Gone]

It could, but if anything, the storm is looking better all the time. They won't run a recon flight into it until this afternoon, but it sure looks like it's TS Ernesto to me.

[lilylangtree]

Calm down! Don't be so defensive. I'm a southerner living in the north. I'm quite familiar with the areas of VA, NC, SC and GA. Realizing that Florida had 22 hurricanes last year, not to mention the devastation of Katrina. And now the south is about to experience possibly another hurricane. I was trying to make light of a scary situation. :)

[jamaly]

Thanks for the info. I have already made my evacuation reservations. My family isn't taking any chances! Rooms will be scarce very quickly if this storm moves into the Gulf.

[Dog Gone]

This far out, everyone between Mexico and the Florida panhandle is in the possible path. An extrapolation of the center line forecast from the NHC suggests a landfall somewhere around Corpus Christi or Houston.

Oddly enough, I consider that good news, because the long range projection invariably turns out to be incorrect.

But if this storm survives until Sunday, someone along the Gulf Coast is going to get hit by a hurricane about a week from now, and possibly a very strong one.

[nwctwx]

It will be interesting to see if it can make it through the shear environment. It is supposed to weaken to some degree and probably shift as well.

If the storm can make it by that intact, it will probably become a rather large problem in the Gulf.

[subterfuge]

With all due respect to you both, the truth is that hurricanes usually cause zero deaths.

[nwctwx]

Interesting happenings in the GOM today..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

Got a little while to go for tropical development, but it might be headed that way.

AND

Look at this coming off the African coast. Active times ahead..

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/europe/images/xxirmet7n.GIF

[abb]

Check out the water vapor loop on TD#5. Is it losing convection, or is it my wishful thinking?

[Dog Gone]

I'm hoping that blob coming off Africa will follow Debby. I think we're going to have our hands full with Ernesto for the next week.

[nascarnation]

Weather Channel --> hurricane coverage ---> Stephanie Abrams

see there's a positive side to it