Looks like the current Gulf Loop could cause a lot of pain.
Posted on 08/24/2006 12:26:27 PM PDT by nwctwx
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 315 PM EDT WED AUG 16 2006
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED A CLOSED WIND CIRCULATION...AND ADVISORIES ON EITHER A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM WILL BE INITIATED AT 5 PM AST. MAXIMUM WINDS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STRONGER WINDS MAY BE OBSERVED PRIOR TO ADVISORY TIME.
$$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Statement as of 11:00 PM AST on August 24, 2006
...Tropical Depression Five still producing showers and gusty winds
across portions of the Lesser Antilles...
at 1100 PM AST...0300z...the center of Tropical Depression Five was
located near latitude 13.2 north...longitude 63.9 west or about 390
miles...625 km...south-southeast of San Juan Puerto Rico.
The depression is moving toward the west near 18 mph...and a west to
west-northwestward motion...with some decrease in forward speed is
expected over the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast and the depression could
become a tropical storm on Friday.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb...29.74 inches.
Although the center of the depression continues to move away from
the Windward Islands...rain bands trailing the center will be
affecting the islands overnight...with heavy rains and wind gusts
to tropical storm force in squalls. All interests in the Windward
Islands...as well as in Trinidad and Tobago...should exercise
caution until winds and seas subside.
Rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches can be expected in
association with the depression.
Repeating the 1100 PM AST position...13.2 N...63.9 W. Movement
toward...west near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...35 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1007 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
500 am AST.
$$
Forecaster Mainelli/Knabb
Three day track has this baby at hurricane status over Jamaica.
Apparently there is some of our old buddy Dry Dusty Saharan Air over the Eastern Caribbean. Hopefully it will help keep this bad boy in check.
It's moving past that influence so I'm not particulary hopeful. I think our best hope is that it moves over the mountains of eastern Cuba.
Thanks for the ping. This thing looks to be heading to other than Florida.
000
WTNT35 KNHC 250836
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 AM AST FRI AUG 25 2006
...DEPRESSION ALMOST A TROPICAL STORM...
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.7 WEST OR ABOUT 345 MILES...560 KM... SOUTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH AND A MOTION GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM SHIP OBSERVATIONS IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...13.4 N...65.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
It is getting itself organized.
Gret Big Ole slug of dry air right in front of it, though...
The MSM will be deeply saddened :(
It's moving forward too fast right now to develop a lot of intensity. The closed center is running out in front of the visible convection which mostly trails it.
I haven't looked at a shear map, but that's probably related.
If it slows down and shear is favorable, the waters south of Jamaica should make this pup become a big dog.
I am glad that I moved out of Louisiana this summer. Had enough of it last year. I hope this one peters out into just a nice rain maker and we call it a season. Wishful thinking I know.
Well the speculators are being sure to take full advantage --- Oil is up almost $2 a barrell, back over $73.
Ernesto will be a hurricane next week, simply because there is no factor that can prevent it.
It will be Bush's fault, unless it makes landfall in Mexico. Then I don't know what the media spin will be.
Oh that's easy. Landfall in Mexico = Bush's fault. It will drive all the poor and downtrodden ( and water logged) north and since Bush hasn't sealed the borders... well you know the rest.
If it comes into the gulf as a 2, it will blow up big time. The Gulf is still virgin so far. The water temps I believe are slightly down from last year, but it will be hot enough next week. I really hope it doesn't hit LA/MS though. It just would rub salt into bad wounds.
Right now the models generally trend toward a Mexican landfall, but the storm is still so far out that there's not much confidence in that. The ridge doesn't have to slide too far to the east in order to cause it to move sharply northward.
I don't think anyone gleefully anticipates the final destruction of New Orleans. They just think it's unwise to rebuild below sea level.
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