Did the GOP pick up 7% in the generic congressional ballot in August 1974 to trail by only 2% before Labor Day? The latest generic congressional ballot looks almost exactly as it looked in August of 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002 and 2004. I think the *most likely* (albeit not certain) result of the House elections is somewhere between a net gain of 5 for the Democrats and a net gain of 2 for the GOP, and in Senate elections between a net gain of 2 for the Democrats and a net gain of 1 for the GOP.
I think the MSM/DBM has already started to panic. They are in a full court press for Hillary as of yesterday (Time cover piece, Newsweak editorial and Today show puff piece). Watch for more graphic coverage in Iraq, unhappy soldier stories, Katrina reduex, and they'll continue they're "country is less safe" BS mantra.
MN Supreme Court rules in Gutknecht's favor
As for the 1974 question, Nixon resigned on August 8 of 1974 and the Ford pardon followed on September 8 of 1974, so that timeframe was actually the worse ratings that the GOP has pretty much had ever, probably including even the Hoover collapse.
My personal view is that this Gallup Poll is running counter to the other polls, but there is no question that it more resembles the '96 to '04 timeframe than it does '74, '82, '86, or a reverse '94. If this kind of thing keeps up, the worm will have certainly turned. :)
As for predictions, my ratings are not based on generic poll figures except in the most indirect way, and my latest projection would be a 12 seat loss for the GOP in the House and a 3 seat loss for the GOP in the Senate.