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Republican-Held House Seats In Play |
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Likely Republican Retention |
Tossup |
Likely Democratic Takeover |
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Leans GOP |
Leans Dem |
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AZ-1 (Renzi) |
AZ-5 (Hayworth) |
CT-4 (Shays) |
AZ-8 (Open) |
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CO-4 (Musgrave) |
CO-7 (Open) |
IA-1 (Open) |
IN-9 (Sodrel) |
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CT-5 (Johnson) |
CT-2 (Simmons) |
IN-8 (Hostettler) |
KY-4 (Davis) |
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FL-13 (Open) |
FL-22 (Shaw) |
NC-11 (Taylor) |
TX-22 (Open) |
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FL-8 (Keller) |
IL-6 (Open) |
OH-1 (Chabot) |
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IL-11 (Weller) |
IN-2 (Chocola) |
PA-6 (Gerlach) |
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KY-3 (Northup) |
MN-6 (Open) |
WI-8 (Open) |
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NH-2 (Bass) |
NM-1 (Wilson) |
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NV-3 (Porter) |
NY-24 (Open) |
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NY-20 (Sweeney) |
OH-15 (Pryce) |
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TX-23 (Bonilla) |
OH-18 (Open) |
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WA-8 (Reichert) |
PA-7 (Weldon) |
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WY-AL (Cubin) |
PA-8 (Fitzpatrick) |
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PA-10 (Sherwood) |
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VA-2 (Drake) |
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Otherwise I'm posting this because there are some definite departures here from the rest of the collective punditry, and certainly from my own rankings. It gives me a lot to think over for my next revisions!
Do they have any historic credibility? I've read Novak's columns before but this is the first time I've seen his name associated with a detailed survey.
I disagree with several of these predictions, but am most surprised with their calling Chabot's seat in Ohio a "Tossup/Leans Dem." Chabot was elected and reelected in a far more Democrat seat from 1994 to 2000, and his district is trending even more Republican. I think Pryce will lose before Chabot would, and I don't think Pryce wil llose.
I've seen no polling data on IN-9 (Sodrel vs. Hill), but in KY-4, Davis has already pulled ahead of Lucas, so I can't see how that is likely, let alone lean Dem. Until we know the finalists for AZ-8, it's hard to categorize it, yet. If it ends up Graf vs. Giffords, supposedly Giffords has baggage, and it may not be nearly as 'Rat leaning as claimed.
I'd actually move CO-7 to Lean Dem from Lean GOP, based on claims that the lead Dem Perlmutter may be the stronger candidate. The one that worries me is the peculiar case of Don Sherwood. He carries a heavy sleaze factor and could be one of the bigger under-the-radar upsets of the cycle. I've seen no polling data on that contest. I also agree that Chabot shouldn't be in Lean Dem, either. That district was drawn for him.
KY-4 seems the most bizarre in its placement on the list, to me.
On the list, the most surprising ones to me are: KY-04 (much more Dem than I think) and OH-01 (slightly more Dem than I think)
I also think that WY-AL should be in Toss-up/Lean Rep, but that is just based on hunches.
I assume that you noticed the SUSA poll today concerning WA-08. Seems to me to indicate a placement more in the realm of what Novak is suggesting.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d034d356-8299-4d08-9b88-5656013dfe35