[AuH2ORepublican]

"It did nonetheless tip the seat from Lean Dem to Toss Up in my ratings."

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I agree that Toss-Up is the right call, and I think it will stay that way until Election Day. I would note that, by the numbers (Kerry carried it 50%-49% in a region where the Bush-Kerry vote fairly describes the partisan balance), it's the second toughest GOP-held open seat to defend (after Nussle's seat in Iowa). If the CO-07 race is a barnburner, it would be unlikely for Musgrave's reelection to be a nailbiter, or for Salazar to be reelected without breaking into a sweat, or for Heather Wilson to be defeated.

[AntiGuv]

I do not consider those four elections to be linked, except in the most tangential way. You might recall that two months ago I was writing that CO-07 would be Toss Up if Lamm won and very well might be so if Perlmutter won. I didn't post that because I predicted some seachange in the national landscape. I posted that because the race had clear indications of becoming more favorable to the GOP than one might expect it would be based on the district demographics in tandem with the national mood. The reasons why are as clear now IMO as they were two months ago: A very acrimonious and divisive Dem primary contrasted with a very well-funded GOP candidate backed by a very unified local party.

So, to me, the fact that CO-07 has trended to where I thought it would impacts CO-04, CO-03, and NM-01 to the degree that the above factors exist in those districts as well (i.e., none).

[AntiGuv]

FWIW, Evans & Novak seem to agree with me that a Toss Up in CO-07 does not revision the whole campaign cycle.

Republican-Held House Seats In Play
Likely Republican Retention	Tossup		Likely Democratic Takeover
	Leans GOP	Leans Dem
AZ-1 (Renzi)	AZ-5 (Hayworth)	CT-4 (Shays)	AZ-8 (Open)
CO-4 (Musgrave)	CO-7 (Open)	IA-1 (Open)	IN-9 (Sodrel)
CT-5 (Johnson)	CT-2 (Simmons)	IN-8 (Hostettler)	KY-4 (Davis)
FL-13 (Open)	FL-22 (Shaw)	NC-11 (Taylor)	TX-22 (Open)
FL-8 (Keller)	IL-6 (Open)	OH-1 (Chabot)
IL-11 (Weller)	IN-2 (Chocola)	PA-6 (Gerlach)
KY-3 (Northup)	MN-6 (Open)	WI-8 (Open)
NH-2 (Bass)	NM-1 (Wilson)
NV-3 (Porter)	NY-24 (Open)
NY-20 (Sweeney)	OH-15 (Pryce)
TX-23 (Bonilla)	OH-18 (Open)
WA-8 (Reichert)	PA-7 (Weldon)
WY-AL (Cubin)	PA-8 (Fitzpatrick)
	PA-10 (Sherwood)
	VA-2 (Drake)

Otherwise I'm posting this because there are some definite departures here from the rest of the collective punditry, and certainly from my own rankings. It gives me a lot to think over for my next revisions!