Will be officially upgraded at 5pm EDT.
Posted on 08/21/2006 1:23:51 PM PDT by nwctwx
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR (AL042006) ON 20060821 1800 UTC
ping
Karl Rove's back at his weather machine....
I've been watching it for the past day. If it doesn't move above 20N, this could be the real deal.
We've been astoundingly lucky so far this year. ManBearPig must be so mad.
After last year, if anyone had told me we'd only be to TD #4 by August 21, I would've called them crazy..... but I'll take it!
pingerooni
Fortunately, the models have it recurving well before hitting the islands. But it's a long way between now and then.
Pretty good looking system... it's been a long time since we have had a true cape verde system, and even then, it's rare to have one so well developed so fast.
If it's going to curve, it will do so in the next few days probably.
#4 at this point is pretty normal.
bttt
I think everyone got a little carried away after last year. There are numerous things that can keep a season from being blockbuster, everything just fell into place last season.
Aaiiieeee!!! This COULD turn into a mega-category 5 hurricane ... quick, bid up oil futures some more!!!
They normally look like crap coming off of Africa, but this guy seems organized, is there significant convection?
Did he get this one from Mikkos Cassidine? Or from Boris Badunov?
TS
Actually, I don't think Boris ever had a weather machine. Simon Bar Sinister, sure, but not Boris.
Yeah, but there was something posted the other day that said normal weather is because of global warming.
Almost everything has been killed by the Saharan Air Layer this season so far... this one might as well. It looks VERY good right now, but it's a loooong way off.
Man the all caps kills me but...
A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST...NOW
ALONG 21W WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW CENTERED NEAR 12N. AT 12Z...IT
WAS ANALYZED AT 1011 MB. THIS WAVE IS PROBABLY THE MOST
VIGOROUS IN THE E ATLC SO FAR THIS YEAR. CONVECTION HAS
DECREASED SOME FROM THIS MORNING BUT REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN AN BANDED FEATURE WHICH WRAPS
TWO-THIRDS AROUND THE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO
FOUND S OF THE LOW FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 19W-25W. THIS AREA MAY
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
IT MOVES WNW AT 10-15 KT. ONE OF THE POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTORS
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS THE LARGE AREA OF DUST TO THE N AND W
OF THE LOW...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF A
FACTOR IT WILL BE.
Sending this particular disturbance harmlessly toward the north Atlantic would be great. Insurance companies are still reeling from last year, and so are homeowners.
It's really hot right now along the Gulf Coast, but we don't need a big momma like that to give us any "relief."
Was just mentioning that. ;-)
It seems to have lessened recently, but still an issue.
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