Germany in the Cross-hairs

Till this day Islamic terrorists have not succeeded yet in striking in Germany. But mean the mess according to unanimous expert's opinion nothing. Above all not, because it already three attempts given hat:

In 2002 one wanted to commit an Abu Mussab al-Sarkawi attached terror cell posters against Jewish and putatively Jewish equipment in Berlin and in the Ruhr area.

In 2003 Tunisian Ihsan Garnaoui should have planned to explain a poster in the midst of a demonstration in Berlin.

In the end of 2004 lifted security services a group of Kurdish Iraqis become extinct, die to " Ansar of Al Islam " belonged and planned apparently to murder hobby room Iraqi interim premier Ijad Alawi at that time during a state visit in Berlin.

The war, hobby room bin Laden appealed, war the United states-controlled campaign against Afghanistan, after hobby room to terrorist attacks from the 11th September, 2001 been initiated to war. Differently than in the case of the invasion begun in 2003 in the hobby room war of Iraq the federal republic involved dies. Therefore, Germany and blow net are a citizen since that time already potential terror purposes.

In May, 2004 the document was delivered for the fact that still gilding also dies after the beginning of the Iraq war: the mitt in of the Saudi-Arabian capital Riad three terrorists shot hobby room Germans Hermann D. " the Mudschahidin in Riad have killed a western unbeliever

''Reality hurts sometimes''
Well, yes. But I do think your viewpoint is just more of an ''the glass of water is half empty'' approach than justified. We Germans are usually blamed to criticize in this manner. Kohl called it '' complaining on a high
level''.
Now let`s look at it from the ''glass is half full'' viewpoint:
Unemployment/growth rate :
Latest below 10%/2% , nothing to brag about, but still better than 11.5%/1.5%. Improving, despite real reforms have not taken place. Yesterday Merkel had to give credit to the ''Harz 4'' reform( initiated by Schröder!! Good fun!). Imagine the scope of improvements, once Merkel would/could preside a CDU/FDP government!
''Even German as a language is on the decline''
It is obvious that the USA as remaining superpower No 1 have a cultural influence worldwide. The language (well, some sort of English, as it's said /chuckle) transports this. In Germany there are plenty examples of Anglicism. Most Germans couldn't be bothered about this . Why should they, it's cool, man.. Unlike other countries in Europa who fear - somehow understandable -a cultural loss.
I believe this is also somewhat a grass root proof, that Germans don't dislike Americans as it is often claimed. It's just politics, stupid (no pun intended).
Decline economic importance:
China or even India suppose to come out in front of Germany on economic rankings. So what? Why should there be a problem, that their rankings in the future are going to reflect the position of their economy and the number of their people?
Military second rated:
In the light of the 20. century history some countries in Europe might just find this positive that Germany is downsizing it's army! Apart from this, it is in the middle of a process of transforming a land-based army, set up to fight the then SowjetUnion in Europe, to a modern response force, capable of acting worldwide. Given our history, this is politically not easy and it costs time and money. I have not the slightest doubts, this will be archived in the longer run.
Social programs:
''DDR light'', I believe you called it in another thread. I loved it!. Yes, this together with the red tape will be the hardest to change. Germany is still a wealthy country and people just don`t see the point, that things should change a lot. Especially the ones, who can take advantage of the system. Look what happened, when Merkel honestly announced changes towards a flat tax. She nearly lost the election. Obviously, we are not yet in dire streets, so it's business as usual/ sarc.
''Please tell, what profound 'systemic' changes are happening?''

IMHO the only chance of profound changes are possible with a CDU/FDP government.
''Besides making the Americans their new Jew and calling them locust capitalists, what are they doing different?''

This is stupid left wing election rhetoric. Especially when later came out, some government bodies sold out their real estate to these ''locust capitalists''.

''If Germany were attacked tomorrow successfully and hundreds died, the Germans would see this as validation to give up and abandon Afghanistan or even take a lighter position on Iran.''
I predict, the contrary will happen, Muslims here are already complaining about being hassled.

''People like Atlantic Bridge, a self proclaimed German conservative would see this as validation to disengage with the problem Islamic terror. Do you think this is a healthy perception that will lead to any solution?''

I have not read all of his or - for that matter - your postings. Also, its none of my business to judge other people here. But I can give you my opinion:
As a German, who has been living abroad many years of my professional life, my impression is, we have to engage us outside Europe too - if necessary militarily. In the long run, there is not much point in neck in the woods navel gazing. We should have a clear stand to our allies and interest to defend our similar/same values based on a Jewish/Christian cultural background. And yes, I would supported Merkel, if she were going to sent troops to Lebanon. Additionally, I had no problem either, if the mission would include, to take out this Hezbollah cr*p

The problems I mentioned are systemic and established as a trend. They are no cyclical temporary issues Germany faces, rather long term and continuing.

I am not viewing the glass half full. If I wanted to be factual and negative I would have to state that by definition Germany's economy is in a 'depression' and no credible long term projection puts Germany at more that 2% growth for the foreseeable future.

Again, look at the German birth rate. Is this changing? Is it getting better? Is it only a temporary anomaly that will pass shortly? No. It's a problem that has been brewing for years even over a decade now. Do you really think the Germans are going to have some epiphany and completely remodel their economic system? No. Truth is the Germans are going FURTHER into their hole and are now taxing road usage, phasing in a new tax for the wealthy and increasing their VAT. The only thing they can think of as an answer to their problem is to go further down this road. Why? Because the Germans embrace socialism. They believe in an 'ordentliche sozialpolitik', even though all historical examples, modern economic theory, and even common sense say it's a bad idea. When people hold on to an idea like this despite all evidence running contrary they are no longer acting pragmatic or rational. They are consumed by an ideology.

Yet more evidence-

It is no coincidence that Germany has adopted an extreme liberal position on abortion (Paragraph 218) shortly after the wall fell. The Germans who already were very liberal moved even further to the left politically after the unification. Arbeitsbeschaffungsmassnahmen or 1 Euro jobs are not to far off from what you had in the former DDR where everyone was guaranteed a job, even if it was made up and had no economic viability.

Today, Germany under Merkel will take a more sound and realistic approach to security matters. Unlike Schroeder, she will not play games to score cheap political capital at an allies expense. Iraq is not the only example of where Schroeder did this. Missile defense was another example where the Schroeder administration more or less took a position that ran contrary even to Germany's OWN security interests and they knew the US would follow through with it, yet they bad mouthed it and pandered to the political left within Germany. As the elections were nearing Schroeder even tried to play games with the Iran crisis! This man did not even serve Germany's OWN interests. He served himself, and should be happy with his job at Gazprom today.

Germany will not play a vital role in security, BUT they will no longer play games with Western collective security interests and sabotaging it as Schroeder was. On the other hand, Germany will not change in it's paradigm reference socialism; their economic, and social policy. Germany with continue to implode internally but at least externally they will not pull others down with them.

"As a German, who has been living abroad many years of my professional life, my impression is, we have to engage us outside Europe too - if necessary militarily. In the long run, there is not much point in neck in the woods navel gazing. We should have a clear stand to our allies and interest to defend our similar/same values based on a Jewish/Christian cultural background. And yes, I would supported Merkel, if she were going to sent troops to Lebanon. Additionally, I had no problem either, if the mission would include, to take out this Hezbollah cr*p"

What percent of Germans think this way? You can count them on one hand. There are also Germans who think that the current economic and social policy is a failure and that the government should back off. Most Germans will agree that there are problems, but what percent would say "yes" to cuts in the Rente, Arbeitslosenversicherung, and agree with paying for their own college or trade school and health care? Again, you can count them on one hand. The German believes in socialism, and you CAN make a 'pauschal' statement like that. There can be no change until the people begin to think differently.

''Why? Because the Germans embrace socialism. They believe in an 'ordentliche sozialpolitik', even though all historical examples, modern economic theory, and even common sense say it's a bad idea. When people hold on to an idea like this despite all evidence running contrary they are no longer acting pragmatic or rational. They are consumed by an ideology''.
As already discussed, I am aware this point is difficult to tackle with. I believe, it is not a coincidence, that
Bismarck IIRC introduced the first social insurance worldwide in Germany. IMHO the idea of solidarity is deeply embedded in German culture. Socialism and fascism just took advantage of it. And while a 'modern welfare state' claims to benefit single members and in the end the whole society, it has run now out of control. Not only in Germany BTW., France needs some readjustments as well.
In Germany it started in 70/80 with Willy Brands champagne 'mehr Demokratie wagen', when Germany still was in a pretty healthy, financial shape. So they started pouring money into the social systems. An 'Erwartungshaltung' was building up, the state had to provide everything etc. Chancellor Schmidt already tried to steer against it. So did Kohl. It's true the unification with the socialistic eastern part did not improve things, quite to the contrary.
Imagine for a sec. the USA had to takeover a bankrupt country with about 25% of its own population and feed it through( well, more or less) built up its infrastructure,
integrate its social security system ( which basically meant, credit them their worthless 'Rentenansprüche' to the full,) and pay this all out of the pocket of the rest population. Of course the 'Erwartungshaltung' in East
Germany expected this and more. Would you like to work with Eastern European wages in Germany and have to pay the high cost of living over here. No, you wouldn't. So their wages had to go up. Which in turn did`t encourage big scale industry. They rather went to Eastern European states with cheap wages( German companies included).
The local unemployment rates are still over 20% in some areas.
IMHO you have to be careful, when you cite 10% or 11% general unemployment rate in Germany. The area in the former BRD, I'm currently living in, has about 6.7%. Now for argument sake : still pretty good ,despite all the socialistic burdens, isn't ? And when you believe the theory that, the higher the tax rate the bigger the numbers of tax avoidance cases it is still much better. Have you ever tried to get a 'handwerker' in some areas in German ? If they turn up at all - with a high probability - they will ask you for a 'non bill' job(IE.. no bill - no tax). There is plenty of 'Schwarzgeld' around. This, of course, doesn't appear in official statistics.
It comes still better: After the opening up of East Europe ( well, partly at least) there are plenty people around here , who you can hire. For them it is attractive, because they can make more money in 3 months than in the whole year in their home country. So you would have to reduce the unemployment rate again.
In short: the economy is in better shape as some official statistics might reflect. I'm living here now, so I get a reality check every day.
Hence my conclusion : The main economic problems we are currently facing in Germany are caused by unification and
a social system, that has been blown out of proportion. WE need to cut it back to the size it was during the times of 'Wirtschaftminister Ehrhard'. BTW our bureaucracy needs the same treatment. I hate to admit it, but Germany is the most over-regulated country, I have ever been working in. Luckily/unfortunately the country is not in sorry state as Britain was, when Thatcher came to power. Hence it is unrealistic to expect big changes. As already stated, the best chance is still, the CDU/ FDP gets a majority in the next election and then, I predict, you will be in for a surprise!

''Today, Germany under Merkel will take a more sound and realistic approach to security matters. Unlike Schroeder, she will not play games to score cheap political capital at an allies expense. Iraq is not the only example of where Schroeder did this. Missile defense was another example where the Schroeder administration more or less took a position that ran contrary even to Germany's OWN security interests and they knew the US would follow through with it, yet they bad mouthed it and pandered to the political left within Germany. As the elections were nearing Schroeder even tried to play games with the Iran crisis! This man did not even serve Germany's OWN interests. He served himself, and should be happy with his job at Gazprom today''
Well, I did neither vote for entertainer Schroeder nor for diva Fisher. I agree that their government has done a lot of damage to the Atlantic relations together with Chirac. Thankfully, both are gone now and the acceptance rates of Schroeder plummeted after this Gazprom deal, so I guess he is politically dead by now. Merkel has more room to manoeuvre in foreign affairs than in domestics. She is
definitely USA friendly and I think she has already proven this and will do it further. She has obviously managed to establish a good working relationship with your president, so sunnier relationship times seem to lay ahead!.

Reference the economy in Germany-

Germany is in serious trouble. It has been for years, now the reality is beginning to soak into the public’s consciousness and the denial that was practiced for years (As today they still are in light of the Islamic threat) is fading away to a reality that is becoming undeniable.

Things will get worse before they get better. Nothing will get ‘substantially’ better until the Germans change their mode of operation. High taxes, massive bureaucracy, large subsidies, high degree of state participation in the economy, large elaborate inefficient and abused governmental services have created the mess there is today. Basically, Germany NEEDS a Ronald Reagan or Thatcher, but unlike the UK and US which wanted reform Germany does not. Most Germans would agree there are problems but few would draw the conclusions that supply side economics and a minimalist government are the answer. In fact so far the public has supported ‘more’ government and ‘more’ taxes as a way to patch up all the wholes in this sieve called an ‘ordentliche sozialpolitik’. NOTHING that truly addresses the systemic causes of Germany’s economic trouble is being addressed.

The ONLY thing keeping Germany afloat today that has any positive indication is its exports. Now, imagine your #2 export partner the US, has an economy that begins to cool - As it is. Do you realize that nearly every second Porsche built goes to the US? Hint, it’s luxury products and articles that get hit first and hardest. What impact will the US withdraw military and other governmental agencies have from Germany? Minimal, but nonetheless some. Approximately 30 towns/communities will be affected by this. The US military historically were themselves a near 10 Billion US dollar money injection into the German economy.

As to cheap labor in Germany- Those investing in Europe today are looking at nations like Poland, Check Republic, Slovenia, Hungary today. Germany in all reality is a EXPENSIVE place to operate out of. While Germany still has world wide some of the highest and best productivity rates (Among the top 5 or so), the ‘Lohnnebenkosten’ in social costs are also some of the least attractive. Just look at what an employer has to cost share in medical, retirement and other costs! Costs in energy, taxes, water, road usage…….are all high in reality. But it gets worse. Highly regulated, slow bureaucracies and massive environmental constraints have squeezed certain industries out of Germany all together. Find a place that still does Zink work in Germany. Ask Siemens how the nuclear power industry is going. Within Europe Germany is NO low cost nation to produce in, and on the world stage it’s one of the more expensive ones. The US military leaving Germany to a large degree is nothing but a business decision and while the average German does not see it and maybe even welcomes this trend, the same forces that are making them choose to leave are also making others leave. Continental tires left in the early 90s to the Check Republic for example. If you buy a ML Mercedes in Germany, that car was built in the US.

The point is that long term even in this last bastion of hope the Germans have has storm clouds on the horizon.
Things will not go to worse over night and implode. But as a nation Germany will just malinger. The rest of the world in the meantime is moving on without them.

As to language and influence- It’s not even the US I was talking about. Go to the US and into a McDonalds. Get a happy meal for you kid and look at the languages on the package: English, French, Spanish. German? Nope. My wife is a foreign language teacher for German. German is among the smallest programs with both French and Spanish having far greater participation. Hell, some schools have larger programs in Asian languages than German! It’s not just English and the US my friend. It’s not the dominance of the US which you seem to believe, it’s the fading away of Germany even in relation to others! It’s Germany vs. everyone, and you’re still fading away from the world stage. It says something when Latin and German have about the same number enrolled in class. Compare Germany with Brazil in economic terms: 1.6 trillion 2.4% growth to Germany 2.3 trillion .9% growth (Real net growth). What about Russia with 1.6 Trillion and 6.4% growth? Let me make this real simple- Today Germany is place 3 (US/Japan). In 20 years Germany will be place 5 (China/India). In 30 years Germany will be place 7 (Russia/Brazil) - get it? This is not based on a forecast of only some trend of the last year but over what has been happening for a decade now. Just like you birthrate which is creating a negative growth has been a longer trend, so has Germany’s loss in ground to others on the world wide stage.

Germany is fading away in its significance in EVERY way - It economics, security, political influence and even culturally. The decrease in interest in German as a language world wide is but one of many many indicators of this trend.

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