My impression is that gun control and National Security were the overriding issues then. Now, I'm not so sure. Bridgeport, Martin's Ferry and Bellaire are not exactly economic balls of fire. Add to that the idiotic leadership of the Ohio GOP and I would call the race in the general election a toss-up at best.
Yes, no doubt about it. The 2004 Bush numbers for the Pubbies will not be replicated in 2006, in Ohio. The issue is the size of the Pubbie erosion, in heavily contested races, and how much incumbency stanches that (beyond the Ney district). As an aside, the latter bit is what Pryce and Chabot, and for that matter, DeWine, want to know. How much does their incumbency matter, and in what direction?
Bellaire, Bridgeport and Martins Ferry are no longer in the (now comfortably Republican, giving President Bush 55% in 2000 and 57% in 2004) OH-18; in the 1992 redistricting, those towns were placed in the swing OH-06 (which gave President Bush 49% in 2000 and 51% in 2004 and will have a competitive general election this year between Democrat Charlie Wilson and Republican Chuck Blasdel). Here's the map of the current OH-18: http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/images/preview/congdist/OH18_109.gif
BTW, Torie, the old 18th didn't quite stretch to the Youngstown area, but it did include a lot of blue-collar, historically Democrat towns on the Ohio River between East Liverpool and Monroe County.
