Yes, no doubt about it. The 2004 Bush numbers for the Pubbies will not be replicated in 2006, in Ohio. The issue is the size of the Pubbie erosion, in heavily contested races, and how much incumbency stanches that (beyond the Ney district). As an aside, the latter bit is what Pryce and Chabot, and for that matter, DeWine, want to know. How much does their incumbency matter, and in what direction?
I just want to add that Pryce, Chabot, and DeWine face what are generally considered as first-tier opponents, or at least high second tier. By contrast, Zach Space is a third-tier candidate (on a good day).
Unfortunately, Franklin County has gone Red and the City of Columbus may well give 65% of the vote to O'Shaughnessy.
When I move, it will be to another county.