Ney's district was "historically" marginal to Dem leaning until it was redrawn for the 2002 election, and shed a lot of Dem precincts around Youngstown and other rust belt areas near the Ohio River, and became Bush country to the tune of about 57%, as I recall.
My impression is that gun control and National Security were the overriding issues then. Now, I'm not so sure. Bridgeport, Martin's Ferry and Bellaire are not exactly economic balls of fire. Add to that the idiotic leadership of the Ohio GOP and I would call the race in the general election a toss-up at best.