This guy's a libertarian?
Posted on 08/20/2006 2:35:35 PM PDT by AntiGuv
The History of Successful Congressional Write-In Candidates.
The Republican efforts to keep the CD-22 seat, recently vacated by former US House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, face long odds. In US history, only five times has a general election to Congress been won by a write-in candidate. US Senator Strom Thurmond of South Carolina won as a write-in in 1954, but was already widely known and popular figure, having previously served as Governor, as the Dixiecrat candidate for President in 1948, and was a leader of the South’s resistance to integration (Brown v. Board of Education having been decided earlier that year).
The four House election victories that went to write-ins include Charles Curry Jr. (R-CA) in 1930. Curry's father had held the seat and was running unopposed when he died. Curry Junior had no opponent on the ballot -- but subsequently lost his primary for renomination just two years later. Little Rock Boad of Education Member Dale Alford (D-AR) won in 1958 as a write-in segregationist candidate, after incumbent Congressman Brooks Hays (D) -- running without Republican opposition -- expressed support for the integration of Little Rock's Central High School. Former State Senator Joe Skeen (R-NM) won in 1980 when the unopposed incumbent Harold Runnels (D) died and the Democratic Governor twisted enough arms to get his nephew David King appointed as the replacement nominee, despite having no recent ties to the district. In a three way race -- between King, write-in Republican Skeen and Runnels’ widow running as a Democratic write-in, Skeen edged King a 38% to 35% vote with Runnels getting the remainder. Two years later, Carlsbad Mayor Ron Packard (R-CA) was elected to Congress -- and is the only write-in candidate ever to defeat the nominees of both the Democratic and Republican parties. Packard jumped into the race when many district Republicans were unhappy with the Johnny Crean, the wealthy, plurality winner of the GOP primary. The district was heavily Republican.
The Impact of Texas Laws and Voting Technology on the CD-22 Race
It takes extra effort to cast a write-in ballot. The harder it is to vote for a write-in, the lesser the tendency for voters to do so. Most forms of machine or electronic tabulation use or generate paper products on which a name can be written. In same cases candidates are permitted to hand out stickers to be affixed to the ballot, which makes “write-in” voting even easier. But in Texas -- pursuant to Texas Election Code, § 65.008 -- votes cast by stickers will not be counted.
The electronic voting machines now being used also present new problems. The electronic machines used in some Texas countries, including two of the three in CD 22, requires a voter to cast a ballot for a write-in and then -- after a prompt -- type the person's name onto the machine. In CD-22, only Galveston County votes without electronic voting machines -- and fewer than a fifth of the precincts in that county are in CD-22. In fact, Galveston seemingly provides less than 10% of the total population of CD-22. The other two countries, Fort Bend and Harris (Houston) both use eSlate machines (click for an online flash demo of the machines, including how to cast a write-in vote). And, with the eSlate machines, there is no independent paper verification trail. In the case of this specific race, those seeking to cast ballots for the officially supported GOP write-in nominee will need to type in the name of Shelley Sekula-Gibbs -- which won't be exactly easy. Adding to the complications are rumors the Democrats plan to field a write-in candidate with the last name of Gibbs, so that any voters who merely write-in "Gibbs" would be voting for someone other than the GOP candidate.
Given the historical lack of overall success in write-in campaigns and the new technical hurdles in the race in CD-22, it seems likely that -- despite the strong and well-financed efforts we can expect from the GOP -- their odds for victory remain a long shot.
Well, I suggest that the Democrat doesn't buy a house in D.C. He won't be needing it for long.
This interesting commentary goes over some of the questions that I've seen about the history of write-in campaigns and the mechanics of the TX-22 write-in effort in particular. After having completed a sample ballot in the above link, I'm even more convinced that it'd take a bit of a miracle for Sekula-Gibbs to win. I wonder if the real ballot also won't have enough room to write out her full name. That probably won't matter though, since the intent will be clear enough if they get far enough to run out of room..
I think only Strom Thurmond has ever been elected as a write in.
Strom Thurmond was the only one elected to the Senate by write in, but here were four others elected to the House (as the above commentary outlines).
There are two announced Republican write-in candidates along with the Libertarian, who will divide the Republican votes between them. The DemocRat will will with a plurality.
Thurmond was the only U.S. Senator elected as a write-in; six Representatives have also won that way. I think just "Gibbs" will count as a vote for her.
Unless this is accurate: "Adding to the complications are rumors the Democrats plan to field a write-in candidate with the last name of Gibbs, so that any voters who merely write-in "Gibbs" would be voting for someone other than the GOP candidate."
They should vote for Smither the Libertarian. A write-in has no chance.
This article fails to mention Linda Smith's recent win in Washington state.
Interestingly, the previous write-in winners have all had easy to remember/spell names.
I wonder if Shelly Sekula-Gibbs can drop "Sekula" for this election and run as just "Shelly Gibbs" That move alone, may be worth several thousand votes.
Hey, that's right. Linda Smith won as a write-in in 1994. Someone up above says there have been six write-in Representatives, so if correct that means another one is missing.
The real question to ask is how many *serious* and *well-funded* write-in bids have there been over the years? My guess is not very many.
I think the conventional wisdom here is all wrong, especially given the partisan bent of this district. Even if many people will be too lazy/dumb to cast a write-in vote, that doesn't mean their vote will go to Lampson.
I agree.
The problem is that some, but not all, of the Republicans in the district will also agree. Others will not and will vote for one of the two write-in Republican candidates. Others will write in "Tom Delay." Others will simply not vote in that race.
The end result will be the DemocRat winning with a plurality.
The Republicans can retake the seat in two years, but this election it is a lost cause.
This guy's a libertarian?
Actually, DeLay should stay out of Texas. Instead of bowing out and allowing a worthy Republican to fight and win the primary, he selfishly wins the primary, then decides Jesus has told him to become a lobbyist.
Engineering the loss of a valuable House seat is Tom DeLay's ignominious end.
Yes, talk about a stolen election. Can you imagine if Republicans worked in the courts to deprive voters of a choice between the two parties? The Dems. and the media would scream bloody murder. So the Dems. do it and the media just swoons over how clever they are.
Oh well, I guess this is how Dems. win. They deprive voters of a real choice in a district where they'd never be able to win with a Republican on the ticket. But I guess I have to also blame Delay for not having gotten out before the primary. Why he waited until 2 weeks after the primary to drop out is beyond me. Shows how ego gets the better of some people.
Amen. When ego trumps doing right by your party. Can you imagine if John McCain or Lindsey Graham did something like this? Freepers would be screaming about how they "screwed the GOP yet again." As you say, they should be as outraged at Delay as they are, and I am, at the Democrats for their pathetic election stealing.
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